Dataset Information

Attribution of net carbon change by disturbance type across forest lands of the conterminous United States.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Locating terrestrial sources and sinks of carbon (C) will be critical to developing strategies that contribute to the climate change mitigation goals of the Paris Agreement. Here we present spatially resolved estimates of net C change across United States (US) forest lands between 2006 and 2010 and attribute them to natural and anthropogenic processes. RESULTS:Forests in the conterminous US sequestered -460 ± 48 Tg C year-1, while C losses from disturbance averaged 191 ± 10 Tg C year-1. Combining estimates of net C losses and gains results in net carbon change of -269 ± 49 Tg C year-1. New forests gained -8 ± 1 Tg C year-1, while deforestation resulted in losses of 6 ± 1 Tg C year-1. Forest land remaining forest land lost 185 ± 10 Tg C year-1 to various disturbances; these losses were compensated by net carbon gains of -452 ± 48 Tg C year-1. C loss in the southern US was highest (105 ± 6 Tg C year-1) with the highest fractional contributions from harvest (92%) and wind (5%). C loss in the western US (44 ± 3 Tg C year-1) was due predominantly to harvest (66%), fire (15%), and insect damage (13%). The northern US had the lowest C loss (41 ± 2 Tg C year-1) with the most significant proportional contributions from harvest (86%), insect damage (9%), and conversion (3%). Taken together, these disturbances reduced the estimated potential C sink of US forests by 42%. CONCLUSION:The framework presented here allows for the integration of ground and space observations to more fully inform US forest C policy and monitoring efforts.

SUBMITTER: Harris NL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5108824 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Attribution of net carbon change by disturbance type across forest lands of the conterminous United States.

Harris N L NL Hagen S C SC Saatchi S S SS Pearson T R H TRH Woodall C W CW Domke G M GM Braswell B H BH Walters B F BF Brown S S Salas W W Fore A A Yu Y Y

Carbon balance and management 20161114 1

<h4>Background</h4>Locating terrestrial sources and sinks of carbon (C) will be critical to developing strategies that contribute to the climate change mitigation goals of the Paris Agreement. Here we present spatially resolved estimates of net C change across United States (US) forest lands between 2006 and 2010 and attribute them to natural and anthropogenic processes.<h4>Results</h4>Forests in the conterminous US sequestered -460 ± 48 Tg C year<sup>-1</sup>, while C losses from disturbance av ...[more]

PMID: 27909460

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Project description:BackgroundForests provide the largest terrestrial sink of carbon (C). However, these C stocks are threatened by forest land conversion. Land use change has global impacts and is a critical component when studying C fluxes, but it is not always fully considered in C accounting despite being a major contributor to emissions. An urgent need exists among decision-makers to identify the likelihood of forest conversion to other land uses and factors affecting C loss. To help address this issue, we conducted our research in California, Colorado, Georgia, New York, Texas, and Wisconsin. The objectives were to (1) model the probability of forest conversion and C stocks dynamics using USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data and (2) create wall-to-wall maps showing estimates of the risk of areas to convert from forest to non-forest. We used two modeling approaches: a machine learning algorithm (random forest) and generalized mixed-effects models. Explanatory variables for the models included ecological attributes, topography, census data, forest disturbances, and forest conditions. Model predictions and Landsat spectral information were used to produce wall-to-wall probability maps of forest change using Google Earth Engine.ResultsDuring the study period (2000-2017), 3.4% of the analyzed FIA plots transitioned from forest to mixed or non-forested conditions. Results indicate that the change in land use from forests is more likely with increasing human population and housing growth rates. Furthermore, non-public forests showed a higher probability of forest change compared to public forests. Areas closer to cities and coastal areas showed a higher risk of transition to non-forests. Out of the six states analyzed, Colorado had the highest risk of conversion and the largest amount of aboveground C lost. Natural forest disturbances were not a major predictor of land use change.ConclusionsLand use change is accelerating globally, causing a large increase in C emissions. Our results will help policy-makers prioritize forest management activities and land use planning by providing a quantitative framework that can enhance forest health and productivity. This work will also inform climate change mitigation strategies by understanding the role that land use change plays in C emissions.

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Dataset Information

Attribution of net carbon change by disturbance type across forest lands of the conterminous United States.

Publications

Attribution of net carbon change by disturbance type across forest lands of the conterminous United States.

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