Dataset Information

Predicting the chances of a live birth after one or more complete cycles of in vitro fertilisation: population based study of linked cycle data from 113?873 women.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

To develop a prediction model to estimate the chances of a live birth over multiple complete cycles of in vitro fertilisation (IVF) based on a couple's specific characteristics and treatment information.

Design

Population based cohort study.

Setting

All licensed IVF clinics in the UK. National data from the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority register.

Participants

All 253?417 women who started IVF (including intracytoplasmic sperm injection) treatment in the UK from 1999 to 2008 using their own eggs and partner's sperm.

Main outcome measure

Two clinical prediction models were developed to estimate the individualised cumulative chance of a first live birth over a maximum of six complete cycles of IVF-one model using information available before starting treatment and the other based on additional information collected during the first IVF attempt. A complete cycle is defined as all fresh and frozen-thawed embryo transfers arising from one episode of ovarian stimulation.

Results

After exclusions, 113?873 women with 184?269 complete cycles were included, of whom 33?154 (29.1%) had a live birth after their first complete cycle and 48?925 (43.0%) after six complete cycles. Key pretreatment predictors of live birth were the woman's age (31 v 37 years; adjusted odds ratio 1.66, 95% confidence interval 1.62 to 1.71) and duration of infertility (3 v 6 years; 1.09, 1.08 to 1.10). Post-treatment predictors included number of eggs collected (13 v 5 eggs; 1.29, 1.27 to 1.32), cryopreservation of embryos (1.91, 1.86 to 1.96), the woman's age (1.53, 1.49 to 1.58), and stage of embryos transferred (eg, double blastocyst v double cleavage; 1.79, 1.67 to 1.91). Pretreatment, a 30 year old woman with two years of unexplained primary infertility has a 46% chance of having a live birth from the first complete cycle of IVF and a 79% chance over three complete cycles. If she then has five eggs collected in her first complete cycle followed by a single cleavage stage embryo transfer (with no embryos left for freezing) her chances change to 28% and 56%, respectively.

Conclusions

This study provides an individualised estimate of a couple's cumulative chances of having a baby over a complete package of IVF both before treatment and after the first fresh embryo transfer. This novel resource may help couples plan their treatment and prepare emotionally and financially for their IVF journey.

SUBMITTER: McLernon DJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5112178 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting the chances of a live birth after one or more complete cycles of in vitro fertilisation: population based study of linked cycle data from 113 873 women.

McLernon David J DJ Steyerberg Ewout W EW Te Velde Egbert R ER Lee Amanda J AJ Bhattacharya Siladitya S

BMJ (Clinical research ed.) 20161116

<h4>Objective</h4> To develop a prediction model to estimate the chances of a live birth over multiple complete cycles of in vitro fertilisation (IVF) based on a couple's specific characteristics and treatment information.<h4>Design</h4> Population based cohort study.<h4>Setting</h4> All licensed IVF clinics in the UK. National data from the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority register.<h4>Participants</h4> All 253 417 women who started IVF (including intracytoplasmic sperm injection) t ...[more]

PMID: 27852632

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Project description:BackgroundThe extent to which baseline couple characteristics affect the probability of live birth and adverse perinatal outcomes after assisted conception is unknown.Methods and findingsWe utilised the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority database to examine the predictors of live birth in all in vitro fertilisation (IVF) cycles undertaken in the UK between 2003 and 2007 (n = 144,018). We examined the potential clinical utility of a validated model that pre-dated the introduction of intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) as compared to a novel model. For those treatment cycles that resulted in a live singleton birth (n = 24,226), we determined the associates of potential risk factors with preterm birth, low birth weight, and macrosomia. The overall rate of at least one live birth was 23.4 per 100 cycles (95% confidence interval [CI] 23.2-23.7). In multivariable models the odds of at least one live birth decreased with increasing maternal age, increasing duration of infertility, a greater number of previously unsuccessful IVF treatments, use of own oocytes, necessity for a second or third treatment cycle, or if it was not unexplained infertility. The association of own versus donor oocyte with reduced odds of live birth strengthened with increasing age of the mother. A previous IVF live birth increased the odds of future success (OR 1.58, 95% CI 1.46-1.71) more than that of a previous spontaneous live birth (OR 1.19, 95% CI 0.99-1.24); p-value for difference in estimate <0.001. Use of ICSI increased the odds of live birth, and male causes of infertility were associated with reduced odds of live birth only in couples who had not received ICSI. Prediction of live birth was feasible with moderate discrimination and excellent calibration; calibration was markedly improved in the novel compared to the established model. Preterm birth and low birth weight were increased if oocyte donation was required and ICSI was not used. Risk of macrosomia increased with advancing maternal age and a history of previous live births. Infertility due to cervical problems was associated with increased odds of all three outcomes-preterm birth, low birth weight, and macrosomia.ConclusionsPending external validation, our results show that couple- and treatment-specific factors can be used to provide infertile couples with an accurate assessment of whether they have low or high risk of a successful outcome following IVF.

Project description:Live-birth rates after treatment with assisted reproductive technology have traditionally been reported on a per-cycle basis. For women receiving continued treatment, cumulative success rates are a more important measure.We linked data from cycles of assisted reproductive technology in the Society for Assisted Reproductive Technology Clinic Outcome Reporting System database for the period from 2004 through 2009 to individual women in order to estimate cumulative live-birth rates. Conservative estimates assumed that women who did not return for treatment would not have a live birth; optimal estimates assumed that these women would have live-birth rates similar to those for women continuing treatment.The data were from 246,740 women, with 471,208 cycles and 140,859 live births. Live-birth rates declined with increasing maternal age and increasing cycle number with autologous, but not donor, oocytes. By the third cycle, the conservative and optimal estimates of live-birth rates with autologous oocytes had declined from 63.3% and 74.6%, respectively, for women younger than 31 years of age to 18.6% and 27.8% for those 41 or 42 years of age and to 6.6% and 11.3% for those 43 years of age or older. When donor oocytes were used, the rates were higher than 60% and 80%, respectively, for all ages. Rates were higher with blastocyst embryos (day of transfer, 5 or 6) than with cleavage embryos (day of transfer, 2 or 3). At the third cycle, the conservative and optimal estimates of cumulative live-birth rates were, respectively, 42.7% and 65.3% for transfer of cleavage embryos and 52.4% and 80.7% for transfer of blastocyst embryos when fresh autologous oocytes were used.Our results indicate that live-birth rates approaching natural fecundity can be achieved by means of assisted reproductive technology when there are favorable patient and embryo characteristics. Live-birth rates among older women are lower than those among younger women when autologous oocytes are used but are similar to the rates among young women when donor oocytes are used. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and the Society for Assisted Reproductive Technology.).

Project description:BACKGROUND:It is not known whether segmentation of an in vitro fertilisation (IVF) cycle, with freezing of all embryos prior to transfer, increases the chance of a live birth after all embryos are transferred. METHODS:In a prospective study of UK Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority data, we investigated the impact of segmentation, compared with initial fresh embryo followed by frozen embryo transfers, on live birth rate and perinatal outcomes. We used generalised linear models to assess the effect of segmentation in the whole cohort, with additional analyses within women who had experienced both segmentation and non-segmentation. We compared rates of live birth, low birthweight (LBW <?2.5?kg), preterm birth (<?37?weeks), macrosomia (>?4?kg), small for gestational age (SGA <?10th centile), and large for gestational age (LGA >?90th centile) for a given ovarian stimulation cycle accounting for all embryo transfers. RESULTS:We assessed 202,968 women undergoing 337,148 ovarian stimulation cycles and 399,896 embryo transfer procedures. Live birth rates were similar in unadjusted analyses for segmented and non-segmented cycles (rate ratio 1.05, 95% CI 1.02-1.08) but lower in segmented cycles when adjusted for age, cycle number, cause of infertility, and ovarian response (rate ratio 0.80, 95% CI 0.78-0.83). Segmented cycles were associated with increased risk of macrosomia (adjusted risk ratio 1.72, 95% CI 1.55-1.92) and LGA (1.51, 1.38-1.66) but lower risk of LBW (0.71, 0.65-0.78) and SGA (0.64, 0.56-0.72). With adjustment for blastocyst/cleavage-stage embryo transfer in those with data on this (329,621?cycles), results were not notably changed. Similar results were observed comparing segmented to non-segmented within 3261 women who had both and when analyses were repeated excluding multiple embryo cycles and multiple pregnancies. When analyses were restricted to women with a single embryo transfer, the transfer of a frozen-thawed embryo in a segmented cycles was no longer associated with a lower risk of LBW (0.97, 0.71-1.33) or SGA (0.84, 0.61-1.15), but the risk of macrosomia (1.74, 1.39-2.20) and LGA (1.49, 1.20-1.86) persisted. When the analyses for perinatal outcomes were further restricted to solely frozen embryo transfers, there was no strong statistical evidence for associations. CONCLUSIONS:Widespread application of segmentation and freezing of all embryos to unselected patient populations may be associated with lower cumulative live birth rates and should be restricted to those with a clinical indication.

Project description:ImportanceThe likelihood of achieving a live birth with repeat in vitro fertilization (IVF) is unclear, yet treatment is commonly limited to 3 or 4 embryo transfers.ObjectiveTo determine the live-birth rate per initiated ovarian stimulation IVF cycle and with repeated cycles.Design, setting, and participantsProspective study of 156,947 UK women who received 257,398 IVF ovarian stimulation cycles between 2003 and 2010 and were followed up until June 2012.ExposuresIn vitro fertilization, with a cycle defined as an episode of ovarian stimulation and all subsequent separate fresh and frozen embryo transfers.Main outcomes and measuresLive-birth rate per IVF cycle and the cumulative live-birth rates across all cycles in all women and by age and treatment type. Optimal, prognosis-adjusted, and conservative cumulative live-birth rates were estimated, reflecting 0%, 30%, and 100%, respectively, of women who discontinued due to poor prognosis and having a live-birth rate of 0 had they continued.ResultsAmong the 156,947 women, the median age at start of treatment was 35 years (interquartile range, 32-38; range, 18-55), and the median duration of infertility for all 257,398 cycles was 4 years (interquartile range, 2-6; range, <1-29). In all women, the live-birth rate for the first cycle was 29.5% (95% CI, 29.3%-29.7%). This remained above 20% up to and including the fourth cycle. The cumulative prognosis-adjusted live-birth rate across all cycles continued to increase up to the ninth cycle, with 65.3% (95% CI, 64.8%-65.8%) of women achieving a live birth by the sixth cycle. In women younger than 40 years using their own oocytes, the live-birth rate for the first cycle was 32.3% (95% CI, 32.0%-32.5%) and remained above 20% up to and including the fourth cycle. Six cycles achieved a cumulative prognosis-adjusted live-birth rate of 68.4% (95% CI, 67.8%-68.9%). For women aged 40 to 42 years, the live-birth rate for the first cycle was 12.3% (95% CI, 11.8%-12.8%), with 6 cycles achieving a cumulative prognosis-adjusted live-birth rate of 31.5% (95% CI, 29.7%-33.3%). For women older than 42 years, all rates within each cycle were less than 4%. No age differential was observed among women using donor oocytes. Rates were lower for women with untreated male partner-related infertility compared with those with any other cause, but treatment with either intracytoplasmic sperm injection or sperm donation removed this difference.Conclusions and relevanceAmong women in the United Kingdom undergoing IVF, the cumulative prognosis-adjusted live-birth rate after 6 cycles was 65.3%, with variations by age and treatment type. These findings support the efficacy of extending the number of IVF cycles beyond 3 or 4.

Project description:BackgroundInformation regarding the influence of cytoplasmic events during fertilisation on the clinical outcome remains limited. The cytoplasmic halo is one of these events. A previous study that used time-lapse technology found an association of the presence and morphokinetics of the cytoplasmic halo with cleavage patterns, development to the blastocyst stage, and the ongoing pregnancy rate after blastocyst transfer. Therefore, the cytoplasmic halo may be a useful predictor of the pregnancy outcome after cleaved embryo transfer. This study evaluated the ability of the cytoplasmic halo to predict a live birth after fresh cleaved embryo transfer on day 2, and sought to identify factors potentially influencing the presence and morphokinetics of the halo.MethodsA total of 902 embryos cultured in the EmbryoScope+® time-lapse system and subjected to single fresh cleaved embryo transfer were retrospectively analysed. The presence and duration of a cytoplasmic halo were annotated. The initial positions of the pronuclei were also observed. The correlation between the cytoplasmic halo and live birth was evaluated and the association of the cytoplasmic halo with patient, cycle, and embryonic characteristics was determined.ResultsAbsence of a cytoplasmic halo was associated with a significant decrease in the likelihood of a live birth after fresh cleaved embryo transfer. Prolongation of the halo, especially the duration of central repositioning of cytoplasmic granules, had an adverse impact on the live birth rate. The characteristics of the cytoplasmic halo were not affected by the ovarian stimulation method used, female age, the serum steroid hormone level on the day of trigger, or semen quality. However, the cytoplasmic halo was significantly affected by male age, oocyte diameter, and the initial position of the male pronucleus.ConclusionsAbsence or prolongation of the cytoplasmic halo was negatively correlated with the live birth rate after fresh cleaved embryo transfer. The characteristics of the cytoplasmic halo were strongly associated with oocyte diameter, male age, and the initial position of the male pronucleus. These findings indicate that the characteristics of the cytoplasmic halo can be used to select more competent embryos for transfer at the cleavage stage.