Dataset Information

Malaria Elimination Campaigns in the Lake Kariba Region of Zambia: A Spatial Dynamical Model.

ABSTRACT: As more regions approach malaria elimination, understanding how different interventions interact to reduce transmission becomes critical. The Lake Kariba area of Southern Province, Zambia, is part of a multi-country elimination effort and presents a particular challenge as it is an interconnected region of variable transmission intensities. In 2012-13, six rounds of mass test-and-treat drug campaigns were carried out in the Lake Kariba region. A spatial dynamical model of malaria transmission in the Lake Kariba area, with transmission and climate modeled at the village scale, was calibrated to the 2012-13 prevalence survey data, with case management rates, insecticide-treated net usage, and drug campaign coverage informed by surveillance. The model captured the spatio-temporal trends of decline and rebound in malaria prevalence in 2012-13 at the village scale. Various interventions implemented between 2016-22 were simulated to compare their effects on reducing regional transmission and achieving and maintaining elimination through 2030. Simulations predict that elimination requires sustaining high coverage with vector control over several years. When vector control measures are well-implemented, targeted mass drug campaigns in high-burden areas further increase the likelihood of elimination, although drug campaigns cannot compensate for insufficient vector control. If infections are regularly imported from outside the region into highly receptive areas, vector control must be maintained within the region until importations cease. Elimination in the Lake Kariba region is possible, although human movement both within and from outside the region risk damaging the success of elimination programs.

SUBMITTER: Nikolov M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5120780 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Malaria Elimination Campaigns in the Lake Kariba Region of Zambia: A Spatial Dynamical Model.

Nikolov Milen M Bever Caitlin A CA Upfill-Brown Alexander A Hamainza Busiku B Miller John M JM Eckhoff Philip A PA Wenger Edward A EA Gerardin Jaline J

PLoS computational biology 20161123 11

As more regions approach malaria elimination, understanding how different interventions interact to reduce transmission becomes critical. The Lake Kariba area of Southern Province, Zambia, is part of a multi-country elimination effort and presents a particular challenge as it is an interconnected region of variable transmission intensities. In 2012-13, six rounds of mass test-and-treat drug campaigns were carried out in the Lake Kariba region. A spatial dynamical model of malaria transmission in ...[more]

PMID: 27880764

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Project description:Mass campaigns with antimalarial drugs are potentially a powerful tool for local elimination of malaria, yet current diagnostic technologies are insufficiently sensitive to identify all individuals who harbor infections. At the same time, overtreatment of uninfected individuals increases the risk of accelerating emergence of drug resistance and losing community acceptance. Local heterogeneity in transmission intensity may allow campaign strategies that respond to index cases to successfully target subpatent infections while simultaneously limiting overtreatment. While selective targeting of hotspots of transmission has been proposed as a strategy for malaria control, such targeting has not been tested in the context of malaria elimination. Using household locations, demographics, and prevalence data from a survey of four health facility catchment areas in southern Zambia and an agent-based model of malaria transmission and immunity acquisition, a transmission intensity was fit to each household based on neighborhood age-dependent malaria prevalence. A set of individual infection trajectories was constructed for every household in each catchment area, accounting for heterogeneous exposure and immunity. Various campaign strategies-mass drug administration, mass screen and treat, focal mass drug administration, snowball reactive case detection, pooled sampling, and a hypothetical serological diagnostic-were simulated and evaluated for performance at finding infections, minimizing overtreatment, reducing clinical case counts, and interrupting transmission. For malaria control, presumptive treatment leads to substantial overtreatment without additional morbidity reduction under all but the highest transmission conditions. Compared with untargeted approaches, selective targeting of hotspots with drug campaigns is an ineffective tool for elimination due to limited sensitivity of available field diagnostics. Serological diagnosis is potentially an effective tool for malaria elimination but requires higher coverage to achieve similar results to mass distribution of presumptive treatment.

Project description:Malaria elimination requires reducing both the potential of mosquitoes to transmit parasites to humans and humans to transmit parasites to mosquitoes. To achieve this goal in Southern province, Zambia a mass test and treat (MTAT) campaign was conducted from 2011-2013 to complement high coverage of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLIN). To identify factors likely to increase campaign effectiveness, a modelling approach was applied to investigate the simulated effect of alternative operational strategies for parasite clearance in southern province.OpenMalaria, a discrete-time, individual-based stochastic model of malaria, was parameterized for the study area to simulate anti-malarial drug administration for interruption of transmission. Simulations were run for scenarios with a range of artemisinin-combination therapies, proportion of the population reached by the campaign, targeted age groups, time between campaign rounds, Plasmodium falciparum test protocols, and the addition of drugs aimed at preventing onward transmission. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess uncertainty of simulation results. Scenarios were evaluated based on the reduction in all-age parasite prevalence during the peak transmission month one year following the campaign, compared to the currently-implemented strategy of MTAT 19 % population coverage at pilot and 40 % coverage during the first year of implementation in the presence of 56 % LLIN use and 18 % indoor residual spray coverage.Simulation results suggest the most important determinant of success in reducing prevalence is the population coverage achieved in the campaign, which would require more than 1 year of campaign implementation for elimination. The inclusion of single low-dose primaquine, which acts as a gametocytocide, or ivermectin, which acts as an endectocide, to the drug regimen did not further reduce parasite prevalence one year following the campaign compared to the currently-implemented strategy. Simulation results indicate a high proportion of low-density infections were missed by rapid diagnostic tests that would be treated and cleared with mass drug administration (MDA).The optimal implementation strategy for MTAT or MDA will vary by background level of prevalence, by rate of infections imported to the area, and by ability to operationally achieve high population coverage. Overall success with new parasite clearance strategies depends on continued coverage of vector control interventions to ensure sustained gains in reduction of disease burden.

Project description:BackgroundMalaria Elimination Demonstration Project (MEDP) was started as a Public-Private-Partnership between the Indian Council of Medical Research through National Institute of Research in Tribal Health, Govt. of Madhya Pradesh and Foundation of Disease Elimination and Control of India, which is a Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) initiative of the Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited. The project's goal was to demonstrate that malaria can be eliminated from a high malaria endemic district along with prevention of re-establishment of malaria and to develop a model for malaria elimination using the lessons learned and knowledge acquired from the demonstration project.MethodsThe project employed tested protocols of robust surveillance, case management, vector control, and capacity building through continuous evaluation and training. The model was developed using the learnings from the operational plan, surveillance and case management, monitoring and feedback, entomological investigations and vector control, IEC and capacity building, supply chain management, mobile application (SOCH), and independent reviews of MEDP.ResultsThe MEDP has been operational since April 2017 with field operations from August 2017, and has observed: (1) reduction in indigenous cases of malaria by about 91 %; (2) need for training and capacity building of field staff for diagnosis and treatment of malaria; (3) need for improvement insecticide spraying and for distribution and usage of bed-nets; (4) need for robust surveillance system that captures and documents information on febrile cases, RDT positive individuals, and treatments provided; (5) need for effective supervision of field staff based on advance tour plan; (6) accountability and controls from the highest level to field workers; and (7) need for context-specific IEC.ConclusionsMalaria elimination is a high-priority public health goal of the Indian Government with a committed deadline of 2030. In order to achieve this goal, built-in systems of accountability, ownership, effective management, operational, technical, and financial controls will be crucial components for malaria elimination in India. This manuscript presents a model for malaria elimination with district as an operational unit, which may be considered for malaria elimination in India and other countries with similar geography, topography, climate, endemicity, health infrastructure, and socio-economic characteristics.

Project description:BackgroundReactive case detection (RCD) seeks to enhance malaria surveillance and control by identifying and treating parasitaemic individuals residing near index cases. In Zambia, this strategy starts with passive detection of symptomatic incident malaria cases at local health facilities or by community health workers, with subsequent home visits to screen-and-treat residents in the index case and neighbouring (secondary) households within a 140-m radius using rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs). However, a small circular radius may not be the most efficient strategy to identify parasitaemic individuals in low-endemic areas with hotspots of malaria transmission. To evaluate if RCD efficiency could be improved by increasing the probability of identifying parasitaemic residents, environmental risk factors and a larger screening radius (250 m) were assessed in a region of low malaria endemicity.MethodsBetween January 12, 2015 and July 26, 2017, 4170 individuals residing in 158 index and 531 secondary households were enrolled and completed a baseline questionnaire in the catchment area of Macha Hospital in Choma District, Southern Province, Zambia. Plasmodium falciparum prevalence was measured using PfHRP2 RDTs and quantitative PCR (qPCR). A Quickbird™ high-resolution satellite image of the catchment area was used to create environmental risk factors in ArcGIS, and generalized estimating equations were used to evaluate associations between risk factors and secondary households with parasitaemic individuals.ResultsThe parasite prevalence in secondary (non-index case) households was 0.7% by RDT and 1.8% by qPCR. Overall, 8.5% (n = 45) of secondary households had at least one resident with parasitaemia by qPCR or RDT. The risk of a secondary household having a parasitaemic resident was significantly increased in proximity to higher order streams and marginally with increasing distance from index households. The adjusted OR for proximity to third- and fifth-order streams were 2.97 (95% CI 1.04-8.42) and 2.30 (95% CI 1.04-5.09), respectively, and that for distance to index households for each 50 m was 1.24 (95% CI 0.98-1.58).ConclusionApplying proximity to streams as a screening tool, 16% (n = 3) more malaria-positive secondary households were identified compared to using a 140-m circular screening radius. This analysis highlights the potential use of environmental risk factors as a screening strategy to increase RCD efficiency.

Project description:BackgroundMalaria continues to be a public health problem in South Africa. While the disease is mainly confined to three of the nine provinces, most local transmissions occur because of importation of cases from neighbouring countries. The government of South Africa has reiterated its commitment to eliminate malaria within its borders. To support the achievement of this goal, this study presents a cost-benefit analysis of malaria elimination in South Africa through simulating different scenarios aimed at achieving malaria elimination within a 10-year period.MethodsA dynamic mathematical transmission model was developed to estimate the costs and benefits of malaria elimination in South Africa between 2018 and 2030. The model simulated a range of malaria interventions and estimated their impact on the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum malaria between 2018 and 2030 in the three endemic provinces of Limpopo, Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal. Local financial, economic, and epidemiological data were used to calibrate the transmission model.ResultsBased on the three primary simulated scenarios: Business as Usual, Accelerate and Source Reduction, the total economic burden was estimated as follows: for the Business as Usual scenario, the total economic burden of malaria in South Africa was R 3.69 billion (USD 223.3 million) over an 11-year period (2018-2029). The economic burden of malaria was estimated at R4.88 billion (USD 295.5 million) and R6.34 billion (~ USD 384 million) for the Accelerate and Source Reduction scenarios, respectively. Costs and benefits are presented in midyear 2020 values. Malaria elimination was predicted to occur in all three provinces if the Source Reduction strategy was adopted to help reduce malaria rates in southern Mozambique. This could be achieved by limiting annual local incidence in South Africa to less than 1 indigenous case with a prediction of this goal being achieved by the year 2026.ConclusionsMalaria elimination in South Africa is feasible and economically worthwhile with a guaranteed positive return on investment (ROI). Findings of this study show that through securing funding for the proposed malaria interventions in the endemic areas of South Africa and neighbouring Mozambique, national elimination could be within reach in an 8-year period.

Project description:BackgroundSince 2015, the Global Technical Strategy (GTS) for Malaria 2016-2030 has been adopted by the World Health Organization (WHO) as a comprehensive framework to accelerate progress for malaria elimination in endemic countries. This strategy sets the target of reducing global malaria incidence and mortality rates by 90% in 2030. Here it is sought to evaluate Brazil's achievements towards reaching the WHO GTS milestone in 2030. Considering the total number of new malaria cases in 2015, the main research question is: will Brazil reach the malaria elimination goal in 2030?MethodsAnalytical strategies were undertaken using the SIVEP-malaria official databases of the Brazilian Malaria Control Programme for the Brazilian Amazon region from 2009 to 2020. Spatial and time-series analyses were applied for identifying municipalities that support the highest numbers of malaria cases over the years. Forecast analysis was used for predicting the estimated number of new cases in Brazil in 2025-2050.ResultsBrazil has significantly reduced the number of new malaria cases in 2020 in comparison with 2015 in the states of Acre (- 56%), Amapá (- 75%), and Amazonas (- 21%); however, they increased in the states of Pará (156%), Rondônia (74%), and Roraima (362%). Forecast of the predicted number of new malaria cases in 2030 is 74,764 (95% CI: 41,116-141,160) in the Brazilian Amazon.ConclusionsIt is likely that Brazil will reduce the number of new malaria cases in the Brazilian Amazon in 2030 in relation to that in 2015. Herein forecast shows a reduction by 46% (74,754 in 2030 forecast/137,982 in 2015), but this reduction is yet far from the proposed reduction under the WHO GTS 2030 milestone (90%). Stable and unbeatable transmission in the Juruá River Valley, Manaus, and Lábrea still support endemic malaria in the Brazilian Amazon. Today's cross-border malaria is impacting the state of Roraima unprecedently. If this situation is maintained, the malaria elimination goal (zero cases) may not be reached before 2050. An enhanced political commitment is vital to ensure optimal public health intervention designs in the post-2030 milestones for malaria elimination.

Project description:Malaria community case management (CCM) can improve timely access to healthcare, and CCM programmes in sub-Saharan Africa are expanding from serving children under 5 years (CU5) only to all ages. This report characterizes malaria case management in the setting of an age-expanded CCM programme in Chadiza District, Zambia. Thirty-three households in each of 73 eligible communities were randomly selected to participate in a household survey preceding a trial of proactive CCM (NCT04839900). All household members were asked about fever in the prior two weeks and received a malaria rapid diagnostic test (RDT); those reporting fever were asked about healthcare received. Weighted population estimates were calculated and mixed effects regression was used to assess factors associated with malaria care seeking. Among 11,030 (98.6%) participants with RDT results (2,357 households), parasite prevalence was 19.1% by RDT; school-aged children (SAC, 5-14 years) had the highest prevalence (28.8%). Prior fever was reported by 12.4% of CU5, 7.5% of SAC, and 7.2% of individuals ≥ 15 years. Among those with prior fever, 34.0% of CU5, 56.0% of SAC, and 22.6% of individuals ≥ 15 years had a positive survey RDT and 73.7% of CU5, 66.5% of SAC, and 56.3% of individuals ≥ 15 years reported seeking treatment; 76.7% across all ages visited a CHW as part of care. Nearly 90% (87.8%) of people who visited a CHW reported a blood test compared with 73.5% seen only at a health facility and/or pharmacy (p < 0.001). Reported malaria treatment was similar by provider, and 85.9% of those with a reported positive malaria test reported getting malaria treatment; 66.9% of the subset with prior fever and a positive survey RDT reported malaria treatment. Age under 5 years, monthly or more frequent CHW home visits, and greater wealth were associated with increased odds of receiving healthcare. Chadiza District had high CHW coverage among individuals who sought care for fever. Further interventions are needed to increase the proportion of febrile individuals who receive healthcare. Strategies to decrease barriers to healthcare, such as CHW home visits, particularly targeting those of all ages in lower wealth strata, could maximize the benefits of CHW programmes.

Dataset Information

Malaria Elimination Campaigns in the Lake Kariba Region of Zambia: A Spatial Dynamical Model.

Publications

Malaria Elimination Campaigns in the Lake Kariba Region of Zambia: A Spatial Dynamical Model.

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