Dataset Information

Global environmental drivers of influenza.

ABSTRACT: In temperate countries, influenza outbreaks are well correlated to seasonal changes in temperature and absolute humidity. However, tropical countries have much weaker annual climate cycles, and outbreaks show less seasonality and are more difficult to explain with environmental correlations. Here, we use convergent cross mapping, a robust test for causality that does not require correlation, to test alternative hypotheses about the global environmental drivers of influenza outbreaks from country-level epidemic time series. By moving beyond correlation, we show that despite the apparent differences in outbreak patterns between temperate and tropical countries, absolute humidity and, to a lesser extent, temperature drive influenza outbreaks globally. We also find a hypothesized U-shaped relationship between absolute humidity and influenza that is predicted by theory and experiment, but hitherto has not been documented at the population level. The balance between positive and negative effects of absolute humidity appears to be mediated by temperature, and the analysis reveals a key threshold around 75 °F. The results indicate a unified explanation for environmental drivers of influenza that applies globally.

SUBMITTER: Deyle ER

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5135382 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Global environmental drivers of influenza.

Deyle Ethan R ER Maher M Cyrus MC Hernandez Ryan D RD Basu Sanjay S Sugihara George G

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20161031 46

In temperate countries, influenza outbreaks are well correlated to seasonal changes in temperature and absolute humidity. However, tropical countries have much weaker annual climate cycles, and outbreaks show less seasonality and are more difficult to explain with environmental correlations. Here, we use convergent cross mapping, a robust test for causality that does not require correlation, to test alternative hypotheses about the global environmental drivers of influenza outbreaks from country ...[more]

PMID: 27799563

Similar Datasets

Project description:The microbial process of denitrification is the primary source of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N2O) from terrestrial ecosystems. Fungal denitrifiers, unlike many bacteria, lack the N2O reductase, and thereby are sources of N2O. Still, their diversity, global distribution, and environmental determinants, as well as their relative importance, compared to bacterial and archaeal denitrifiers, remain unresolved. Employing a phylogenetically informed approach to analyze 1,980 global soil and rhizosphere metagenomes for the denitrification marker gene nirK, which codes for the copper dependent nitrite reductase in denitrification, we show that fungal denitrifiers are sparse, yet cosmopolitan and that they are dominated by saprotrophs and pathogens. Few showed biome-specific distribution patterns, although members of the Fusarium oxysporum species complex, which are known to produce substantial amounts of N2O, were proportionally more abundant and diverse in the rhizosphere than in other biomes. Fungal denitrifiers were most frequently detected in croplands, but they were most abundant in forest soils when normalized to metagenome size. Nevertheless, the overwhelming dominance of bacterial and archaeal denitrifiers suggests a much lower fungal contribution to N2O emissions than was previously estimated. In relative terms, they could play a role in soils that are characterized by a high carbon to nitrogen ratio and a low pH, especially in the tundra as well as in boreal and temperate coniferous forests. Because global warming predicts the proliferation of fungal pathogens, the prevalence of potential plant pathogens among fungal denitrifiers and the cosmopolitan distribution of these organisms suggest that fungal denitrifier abundance may increase in terrestrial ecosystems. IMPORTANCE Fungal denitrifiers, in contrast to their bacterial counterparts, are a poorly studied functional group within the nitrogen cycle, even though they produce the greenhouse gas N2O. To curb soil N2O emissions, a better understanding of their ecology and distribution in soils from different ecosystems is needed. Here, we probed a massive amount of DNA sequences and corresponding soil data from a large number of samples that represented the major soil environments for a broad understanding of fungal denitrifier diversity at the global scale. We show that fungal denitrifiers are predominantly cosmopolitan saprotrophs and opportunistic pathogens. Fungal denitrifiers constituted, on average, 1% of the total denitrifier community. This suggests that earlier estimations of fungal denitrifier abundance, and, thereby, it is also likely that the contributions of fungal denitrifiers to N2O emissions have been overestimated. Nevertheless, with many fungal denitrifiers being plant pathogens, they could become increasingly relevant, as soilborne pathogenic fungi are predicted to increase with ongoing climate change.

Project description:A large number of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks in poultry and wild birds have been reported in Europe since 2005. Distinct spatial patterns in poultry and wild birds suggest that different environmental drivers and potentially different spread mechanisms are operating. However, previous studies found no difference between these two outbreak types when only the effect of physical environmental factors was analysed. The influence of physical and anthropogenic environmental variables and interactions between the two has only been investigated for wild bird outbreaks. We therefore tested the effect of these environmental factors on HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in poultry, and the potential spread mechanism, and discussed how these differ from those observed in wild birds. Logistic regression analyses were used to quantify the relationship between HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in poultry and environmental factors. Poultry outbreaks increased with an increasing human population density combined with close proximity to lakes or wetlands, increased temperatures and reduced precipitation during the cold season. A risk map was generated based on the identified key factors. In wild birds, outbreaks were strongly associated with an increased Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and lower elevation, though they were similarly affected by climatic conditions as poultry outbreaks. This is the first study that analyses the differences in environmental drivers and spread mechanisms between poultry and wild bird outbreaks. Outbreaks in poultry mostly occurred in areas where the location of farms or trade areas overlapped with habitats for wild birds, whereas outbreaks in wild birds were mainly found in areas where food and shelters are available. The different environmental drivers suggest that different spread mechanisms might be involved: HPAI H5N1 spread to poultry via both poultry and wild birds, whereas contact with wild birds alone seems to drive the outbreaks in wild birds.

Dataset Information

Global environmental drivers of influenza.

Publications

Global environmental drivers of influenza.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets