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Prospects for a prolonged slowdown in global warming in the early 21st century.

ABSTRACT: Global mean temperature over 1998 to 2015 increased at a slower rate (0.1?K decade^-1) compared with the ensemble mean (forced) warming rate projected by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models (0.2?K decade^-1). Here we investigate the prospects for this slower rate to persist for a decade or more. The slower rate could persist if the transient climate response is overestimated by CMIP5 models by a factor of two, as suggested by recent low-end estimates. Alternatively, using CMIP5 models' warming rate, the slower rate could still persist due to strong multidecadal internal variability cooling. Combining the CMIP5 ensemble warming rate with internal variability episodes from a single climate model-having the strongest multidecadal variability among CMIP5 models-we estimate that the warming slowdown (<0.1?K decade^-1 trend beginning in 1998) could persist, due to internal variability cooling, through 2020, 2025 or 2030 with probabilities 16%, 11% and 6%, respectively.

SUBMITTER: Knutson TR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5141387 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Prospects for a prolonged slowdown in global warming in the early 21st century.

Knutson Thomas R TR Zhang Rong R Horowitz Larry W LW

Nature communications 20161130

Global mean temperature over 1998 to 2015 increased at a slower rate (0.1 K decade<sup>-1</sup>) compared with the ensemble mean (forced) warming rate projected by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models (0.2 K decade<sup>-1</sup>). Here we investigate the prospects for this slower rate to persist for a decade or more. The slower rate could persist if the transient climate response is overestimated by CMIP5 models by a factor of two, as suggested by recent low-end estimates. Alter ...[more]

PMID: 27901045

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Project description:Although recent global warming trends in air temperature are not as pronounced as those observed only one decade ago, global mean temperature is still at a very high level. Does plant phenology - which is believed to be a suitable indicator of climate change - respond in a similar way, that is, does it still mirror recent temperature variations? We explored in detail long-term flowering onset dates of snowdrop, cherry, and lime tree and relevant spring temperatures at three sites in Germany (1901-2012) using the Bayesian multiple change-point approach. We investigated whether mean spring temperature changes were amplified or slowed down in the past decade and how plant phenology responded to the most recent temperature changes. Incorporating records with different end points (i.e., 2002 and 2012), we compared differences in trends and inferred possible differences caused by extrapolating phenological and meteorological data. The new multiple-change point approach is characterized by an enhanced structure and greater flexibility compared to the one change point model. However, the highest model probabilities for phenological (meteorological) records were still obtained for the one change point (linear) model. Marked warming trends in the recent decade were only revealed for mean temperatures of March to May, here better described with one or two change point models. In the majority of cases analyzed, changes in temperatures were well mirrored by phenological changes. However, temperatures in March to May were linked to less strongly advancing onset dates for lime tree flowering during the period 1901-2012, pointing to the likely influence of photoperiodic constraints or unfulfilled chilling requirements. Due to the slowdown of temperature increase, analyses conducted on records ending in 2002 demonstrated distinct differences when compared with records ending in 2012. Extrapolation of trends could therefore (along with the choice of the statistical method) lead to distinctly different results and most recent data should be integrated in order not to over- or underestimate future phenological changes.

Project description:There is no good science in bad models. Cell culture is especially prone to artifacts. A number of novel cell culture technologies have become more broadly available in the 21st century, which allow overcoming limitations of traditional culture and are more physiologically relevant. These include the use of stem-cell derived human cells, cocultures of different cell types, scaffolds and extracellular matrices, perfusion platforms (such as microfluidics), 3D culture, organ-on-chip technologies, tissue architecture, and organ functionality. The physiological relevance of such models is further enhanced by the measurement of biomarkers (e.g., key events of pathways), organ specific functionality, and more comprehensive assessment cell responses by high-content methods. These approaches are still rarely combined to create microphysiological systems. The complexity of the combination of these technologies can generate results closer to the in vivo situation but increases the number of parameters to control, bringing some new challenges. In fact, we do not argue that all cell culture needs to be that sophisticated. The efforts taken are determined by the purpose of our experiments and tests. If only a very specific molecular target to cell response is of interest, a very simple model, which reflects this, might be much more suited to allow standardization and high-throughput. However, the less defined the end point of interest and cellular response are, the better we should approximate organ- or tissue-like culture conditions to make physiological responses more probable. Besides these technologic advances, important progress in the quality assurance and reporting on cell cultures as well as the validation of cellular test systems brings the utility of cell cultures to a new level. The advancement and broader implementation of Good Cell Culture Practice (GCCP) is key here. In toxicology, this is a major prerequisite for meaningful and reliable results, ultimately supporting risk assessment and product development decisions.

Project description:BackgroundBibliometrics has been used to analyze the literature in the field of thyroid disease studies in the early 21st century, indicating the changes in current international study trends.MethodsIn this study, a bibliometric analysis of data retrieved from the Web of Science (WoS) database was conducted, and the publication trends and thematic evolution in the field of thyroid disease research from January 1, 2000, to November 16, 2022, were analyzed. A total of 69283 articles related to thyroid diseases were evaluated for their characteristics, including annual publication volume, countries, journals, institutions, authors, keywords, and references. VOSviewer was utilized to perform the analysis of co-authorship, co-citation, co-occurrence and descriptive.ResultsThe annual publication volume of thyroid disease research literature showed a fluctuating upward trend from 2000 to 2021, exceeding 5,000 articles for the first time in 2021. The United States (16120 counts, 678255 cities) ranks first in terms of publication volume and citation. Thyroid (n=3201) and Journal of Clinical Endocrinology&Metabolism (n=140399) are the most prolific and cited journals, respectively. The organization with the highest publication volume and citation frequency is Harvard University (1011 counts, 59429 cities), Miyauchi Akira (n=422), Schlumberger, and Martin (n=24839) possess the highest publication volume and citation frequency, respectively. Co-occurrence analysis of 307 keywords with frequencies of more than 20 resulted in 6 clusters (1): Thyroid dysfunction and diseases (2); mechanism of occurrence and development of thyroid cancer (3); autoimmune thyroiditis (4); scope and postoperative management of thyroid surgery (5); fine needle aspiration of thyroid nodules (6); radioactive iodine therapy for thyroid cancer. Active monitoring, thermal ablation, Lenvatinib, and long noncoding RNA refer to the latest keywords. Discussing the six clusters helps scholars to determine the scope and direction of studies.ConclusionOver the past two decades, the literature related to thyroid diseases has increased year by year, with closer collaboration between countries, institutions, and authors. In this study, the global trends, research hotspots, emerging subjects, and basic knowledge of literature related to thyroid diseases were respectively elucidated, which will facilitate researchers in this field to seek better development.

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Prospects for a prolonged slowdown in global warming in the early 21st century.

Publications

Prospects for a prolonged slowdown in global warming in the early 21st century.

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