Dataset Information

Projected Influences of Changes in Weather Severity on Autumn-Winter Distributions of Dabbling Ducks in the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways during the Twenty-First Century.

ABSTRACT: Projected changes in the relative abundance and timing of autumn-winter migration are assessed for seven dabbling duck species across the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways for the mid- and late 21st century. Species-specific observed relationships are established between cumulative weather severity in autumn-winter and duck population rate of change. Dynamically downscaled projections of weather severity are developed using a high-resolution regional climate model, interactively coupled to a one-dimensional lake model to represent the Great Lakes and associated lake-effect snowfall. Based on the observed relationships and downscaled climate projections of rising air temperatures and reduced snow cover, delayed autumn-winter migration is expected for all species, with the least delays for the Northern Pintail and the greatest delays for the Mallard. Indeed, the Mallard, the most common and widespread duck in North America, may overwinter in the Great Lakes region by the late 21st century. This highlights the importance of protecting and restoring wetlands across the mid-latitudes of North America, including the Great Lakes Basin, because dabbling ducks are likely to spend more time there, which would impact existing wetlands through increased foraging pressure. Furthermore, inconsistency in the timing and intensity of the traditional autumn-winter migration of dabbling ducks in the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways could have social and economic consequences to communities to the south, where hunting and birdwatching would be affected.

SUBMITTER: Notaro M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5154525 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Projected Influences of Changes in Weather Severity on Autumn-Winter Distributions of Dabbling Ducks in the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways during the Twenty-First Century.

Notaro Michael M Schummer Michael M Zhong Yafang Y Vavrus Stephen S Van Den Elsen Lena L Coluccy John J Hoving Christopher C

PloS one 20161213 12

Projected changes in the relative abundance and timing of autumn-winter migration are assessed for seven dabbling duck species across the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways for the mid- and late 21st century. Species-specific observed relationships are established between cumulative weather severity in autumn-winter and duck population rate of change. Dynamically downscaled projections of weather severity are developed using a high-resolution regional climate model, interactively coupled to a one- ...[more]

PMID: 27959911

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Project description:Nest attendance is an important determinant of avian reproductive success, and identifying factors that influence the frequency and duration of incubation recesses furthers our understanding of how incubating birds balance their needs with those of their offspring. We characterized the frequency and timing (start time, end time, and duration) of incubation recesses for mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) and gadwall (Mareca strepera) hens breeding in Suisun Marsh, California, USA, and examined the influences of day of year, ambient temperature at the nest, incubation day, and clutch size on recess frequency and timing using linear mixed models. Mallard, on average, took more recesses per day (1.69 ± 0.80, mean ± standard deviation) than did gadwall (1.39 ± 0.69), and 45% of mallard nest-days were characterized by two recesses, while only 27% of gadwall nest-days were characterized by two recesses. Mallard morning recesses started at 06:14 ± 02:46 and lasted 106.11 ± 2.01 min, whereas mallard afternoon recesses started at 16:39 ± 02:11 and lasted 155.39 ± 1.99 min. Gadwall morning recesses started at 06:30 ± 02:46 and lasted 91.28 ± 2.32 min, and gadwall afternoon recesses started at 16:31 ± 01:57 and lasted 192.69 ± 1.89 min. Mallard and gadwall started recesses earlier in the day with increasing ambient temperature, but later in the day as the season progressed. Recess duration decreased as the season progressed and as clutch size increased, and increased with ambient temperature at the nest. The impending darkness of sunset appeared to be a strong cue for ending a recess and returning to the nest, because hens returned to their nests earlier than expected when recesses were expected to end after sunset. Within hens, the timing of incubation recesses was repeatable across incubation days and was most repeatable for mallard afternoon recesses and on days in which hens took only one recess. Hens were most likely to be away from nests between 04:00 and 07:00 and between 16:00 and 19:00; therefore, investigators should search for nests between 07:00 and 16:00. Our analyses identified important factors influencing incubation recess timing in dabbling ducks and have important implications for nest monitoring programs.

Project description:Nesting birds must provide a thermal environment sufficient for egg development while also meeting self-maintenance needs. Many birds, particularly those with uniparental incubation, achieve this balance through periodic incubation recesses, during which foraging and other self-maintenance activities can occur. However, incubating birds may experience disturbances such as predator or human activity which interrupt natural incubation patterns by compelling them to leave the nest. We characterized incubating mallard Anas platyrhynchos and gadwall Mareca strepera hens' responses when flushed by predators and investigators in Suisun Marsh, California, USA. Diurnal incubation recesses initiated by investigators approaching nests were 63% longer than natural diurnal incubation recesses initiated by the hen (geometric mean: 226.77 min versus 142.04 min). Nocturnal incubation recesses, many of which were likely the result of predators flushing hens, were of similar duration regardless of whether the nest was partially depredated during the event (115.33 [101.01;131.68] minutes) or not (119.62 [111.96;127.82] minutes), yet were 16% shorter than natural diurnal incubation recesses. Hens moved further from the nest during natural diurnal recesses or investigator-initiated recesses than during nocturnal recesses, and the proportion of hen locations recorded in wetland versus upland habitat during recesses varied with recess type (model-predicted means: natural diurnal recess 0.77; investigator-initiated recess 0.82; nocturnal recess 0.31). Hens were more likely to take a natural recess following an investigator-initiated recess earlier that same day than following a natural recess earlier that same day, and natural recesses that followed an investigator-initiated recess were longer than natural recesses that followed an earlier natural recess, suggesting that hens may not fulfill all of their physiological needs during investigator-initiated recesses. We found no evidence that the duration of investigator-initiated recesses was influenced by repeated visits to the nest, whether by predators or by investigators, and trapping and handling the hen did not affect investigator-initiated recess duration unless the hen was also fitted with a backpack-harness style GPS-GSM transmitter at the time of capture. Hens that were captured and fitted with GPS-GSM transmitters took recesses that were 26% longer than recesses during which a hen was captured but a GPS-GSM transmitter was not attached. Incubation interruptions had measurable but limited and specific effects on hen behavior.

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Project description:BackgroundWild aquatic birds constitute the natural reservoir for avian influenza viruses (AIVs). Separate Eurasian and American AIV gene pools exist. Here, the prevalence and diversity of AIVs in gulls and dabbling ducks in Norway were described. The influence of host species and temporal changes on AIV prevalence was examined. Five AIVs from Norway, including three from common gull (Larus canus), were analyzed along with 10 available AIV genomes from gulls in Eurasia to search for evidence of intracontinental and intercontinental reassortment of gene segments encoding the internal viral proteins.MethodsSwabs collected from 2417 dabbling ducks and gulls in the south-west of Norway during five ordinary hunting seasons (August-December) in the period 2005-2010 were analyzed for presence of AIV. Multivariate linear regression was used to identify associations between AIV prevalence, host species and sampling time. Five AIVs from mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) (H3N8, H9N2) and common gull (H6N8, H13N2, H16N3) were full-length characterized and phylogenetically analyzed together with GenBank reference sequences.ResultsLow pathogenic AIVs were detected in 15.5% (CI: 14.1-17.0) of the samples. The overall AIV prevalence was lower in December compared to that found in August to November (p = 0.003). AIV was detected in 18.7% (CI: 16.8-20.6) of the dabbling ducks. A high AIV prevalence of 7.8% (CI; 5.9-10.0) was found in gulls. A similar temporal pattern in AIV prevalence was found in both bird groups. Thirteen hemagglutinin and eight neuraminidase subtypes were detected. No evidence of intercontinental reassortment was found. Eurasian avian (non H13 and H16) PB2 or PA genes were identified in five reference Eurasian gull (H13 and H16) AIV genomes from GenBank. The NA gene from the Norwegian H13N2 gull isolate was of Eurasian avian origin.ConclusionsThe similar temporal pattern in AIV prevalence found in dabbling ducks and gulls, the relatively high virus prevalence detected in gulls and the evidence of intracontinental reassortment in AIVs from gulls indicate that gulls that interact with dabbling ducks are likely to be mixing vessels for AIVs from waterfowl and gulls. Our results support that intercontinental reassortment is rare in AIVs from gulls in Eurasia.

Dataset Information

Projected Influences of Changes in Weather Severity on Autumn-Winter Distributions of Dabbling Ducks in the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways during the Twenty-First Century.

Publications

Projected Influences of Changes in Weather Severity on Autumn-Winter Distributions of Dabbling Ducks in the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways during the Twenty-First Century.

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