Dataset Information

The prognostic performance of Adjuvant! Online and Nottingham Prognostic Index in young breast cancer patients.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Limited data are available on the prognostic performance of Adjuvant! Online (AOL) and Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI) in young breast cancer patients.

Methods

This multicentre hospital-based retrospective cohort study included young (?40 years) and older (55-60 years) breast cancer patients treated from January 2000 to December 2004 at four large Belgian and Italian institutions. Predicted 10-year overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) using AOL and 10-year OS using NPI were calculated for every patient. Tools ability to predict outcomes (i.e., calibration) and their discriminatory accuracy was assessed.

Results

The study included 1283 patients, 376 young and 907 older women. Adjuvant! Online accurately predicted 10-year OS (absolute difference: 0.7%; P=0.37) in young cohort, but overestimated 10-year DFS by 7.7% (P=0.003). In older cohort, AOL significantly underestimated both 10-year OS and DFS by 7.2% (P<0.001) and 3.2% (P=0.04), respectively. Nottingham Prognostic Index significantly underestimated 10-year OS in both young (8.5%; P<0.001) and older (4.0%; P<0.001) cohorts. Adjuvant! Online and NPI had comparable discriminatory accuracy.

Conclusions

In young breast cancer patients, AOL is a reliable tool in predicting OS at 10 years but not DFS, whereas the performance of NPI is sub-optimal.

SUBMITTER: Lambertini M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5155359 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

The prognostic performance of Adjuvant! Online and Nottingham Prognostic Index in young breast cancer patients.

Lambertini Matteo M Pinto Ana Catarina AC Ameye Lieveke L Jongen Lynn L Del Mastro Lucia L Puglisi Fabio F Poggio Francesca F Bonotto Marta M Floris Giuseppe G Van Asten Kathleen K Wildiers Hans H Neven Patrick P de Azambuja Evandro E Paesmans Marianne M Azim Hatem A HA

British journal of cancer 20161101 12

<h4>Background</h4>Limited data are available on the prognostic performance of Adjuvant! Online (AOL) and Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI) in young breast cancer patients.<h4>Methods</h4>This multicentre hospital-based retrospective cohort study included young (⩽40 years) and older (55-60 years) breast cancer patients treated from January 2000 to December 2004 at four large Belgian and Italian institutions. Predicted 10-year overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) using AOL and 10 ...[more]

PMID: 27802449

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Project description:BACKGROUND: A breast cancer prognostic tool should ideally be applicable to all types of invasive breast lesions. A number of studies have shown histopathological grade to be an independent prognostic factor in breast cancer, adding prognostic power to nodal stage and tumour size. The Nottingham Prognostic Index has been shown to accurately predict patient outcome in stratified groups with a follow-up period of 15 years after primary diagnosis of breast cancer. Clinically, breast tumours that lack the expression of Oestrogen Receptor, Progesterone Receptor and Human Epidermal growth factor Receptor 2 (HER2) are identified as presenting a "triple-negative" phenotype or as triple-negative breast cancers. These poor outcome tumours represent an easily recognisable prognostic group of breast cancer with aggressive behaviour that currently lack the benefit of available systemic therapy. There are conflicting results on the prevalence of lymph node metastasis at the time of diagnosis in triple-negative breast cancer patients but it is currently accepted that triple-negative breast cancer does not metastasize to axillary nodes and bones as frequently as the non-triple-negative carcinomas, favouring instead, a preferentially haematogenous spread. Hypothetically, this particular tumour dissemination pattern would impair the reliability of using Nottingham Prognostic Index as a tool for triple-negative breast cancer prognostication. METHODS: The present study tested the effectiveness of the Nottingham Prognostic Index in stratifying breast cancer patients of different subtypes with special emphasis in a triple-negative breast cancer patient subset versus non- triple-negative breast cancer. RESULTS: We demonstrated that besides the fact that TNBC disseminate to axillary lymph nodes as frequently as luminal or HER2 tumours, we also showed that TNBC are larger in size compared with other subtypes and almost all grade 3. Additionally, survival curves demonstrated that these prognostic factors are equally important to stratify different survival outcomes in non-TNBC as in TNBC. We also showed that the NPI retains the ability to stratify and predict survival of TNBC patients. CONCLUSION: The importance of this study relies on the need of prognostication improvements on TNBC, showing, at a clinical standpoint, that Nottingham Prognostic Index is as a truthful prognostic tool in TNBC.

Project description:Adjuvant! Online is an internet-based computer programme providing 10-year prognosis predictions for early breast cancer patients. It was developed in the United States, has been successfully validated in Canada, and is used in the United Kingdom and elsewhere. This study investigates the performance of Adjuvant! in a cohort of patients from the United Kingdom.Data on the prognostic factors and management of 1065 women with early breast cancer diagnosed consecutively at the Churchill Hospital in Oxford between 1986 and 1996 were entered into Adjuvant! to generate predictions of overall survival (OS), breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS), and event-free survival (EFS) at 10 years. Such predictions were compared with the observed 10-year outcomes of these patients.For the whole cohort, Adjuvant! significantly overestimated OS (by 5.54%, P<0.001), BCSS (by 4.53%, P<0.001), and EFS (by 3.51%, P=0.001). For OS and BCSS, overestimation persisted across most demographic, pathologic, and treatment subgroups investigated. Differences between Adjuvant! predicted and observed EFS appeared smaller, and were significant for far fewer subgroups, only 5 out of the 28. The likely explanation for such discordance is that US breast cancer mortality rates (upon which Adjuvant! is based) appear to be systematically lower than breast cancer mortality rates in the United Kingdom. Differences in survival after recurrence would seem to be one contributory factor, with data suggesting that prognosis after relapse appears poorer in the United Kingdom. This may reflect the fact that new and more effective cancer drugs are often only approved for use in the United Kingdom many years after their adoption in the United States.The use of Adjuvant! by clinicians within the UK National Health Service is increasing, under the assumption that the programme is transferrable to the United Kingdom. At least for women treated for breast cancer at the Churchill Hospital in Oxford, however, Adjuvant!'s predictions were on the whole overoptimistic. If the findings reported here could be shown to be generalisable to other areas of the United Kingdom, then thought should perhaps be given to the development of a UK-specific version of the programme.

Project description:The Nottingham Prognostic Index Plus (NPI+) is a clinical decision making tool in breast cancer (BC) that aims to provide improved patient outcome stratification superior to the traditional NPI. This study aimed to validate the NPI+ in an independent series of BC. Eight hundred and eighty five primary early stage BC cases from Edinburgh were semi-quantitatively assessed for 10 biomarkers [Estrogen Receptor (ER), Progesterone Receptor (PgR), cytokeratin (CK) 5/6, CK7/8, epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), HER2, HER3, HER4, p53, and Mucin 1] using immunohistochemistry and classified into biological classes by fuzzy logic-derived algorithms previously developed in the Nottingham series. Subsequently, NPI+ Prognostic Groups (PGs) were assigned for each class using bespoke NPI-like formulae, previously developed in each NPI+ biological class of the Nottingham series, utilising clinicopathological parameters: number of positive nodes, pathological tumour size, stage, tubule formation, nuclear pleomorphism and mitotic counts. Biological classes and PGs were compared between the Edinburgh and Nottingham series using Cramer's V and their role in patient outcome prediction using Kaplan-Meier curves and tested using Log Rank. The NPI+ biomarker panel classified the Edinburgh series into seven biological classes similar to the Nottingham series (p?>?0.01). The biological classes were significantly associated with patient outcome (p?<?0.001). PGs were comparable in predicting patient outcome between series in Luminal A, Basal p53 altered, HER2+/ER+ tumours (p?>?0.01). The good PGs were similarly validated in Luminal B, Basal p53 normal, HER2+/ER- tumours and the poor PG in the Luminal N class (p?>?0.01). Due to small patient numbers assigned to the remaining PGs, Luminal N, Luminal B, Basal p53 normal and HER2+/ER- classes could not be validated. This study demonstrates the reproducibility of NPI+ and confirmed its prognostic value in an independent cohort of primary BC. Further validation in large randomised controlled trial material is warranted.

Dataset Information

The prognostic performance of Adjuvant! Online and Nottingham Prognostic Index in young breast cancer patients.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

The prognostic performance of Adjuvant! Online and Nottingham Prognostic Index in young breast cancer patients.

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