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Prognosis of patients with benign thyroid nodules: a population-based study.

ABSTRACT: Most thyroid nodules are benign. The ideal follow-up of these patients should reflect their prognosis, which has been scarcely investigated. We aimed to evaluate the prognosis of patients with initial benign thyroid cytology. A population-based study, using the Rochester Epidemiology Project, identifying patients with benign thyroid cytology diagnosed between 2003 and 2006 and completely followed to 2014 using linked medical records. We identified 363 thyroid nodules with benign cytology in 327 patients after fine-needle aspiration biopsy. Patients were on average 53 years old (standard deviation 17), and 80 % were women. The median nodule size was 1.6 cm (interquartile range 1.2-2.4); 26 % had at least one suspicious ultrasound feature. During a median follow-up of 8 years, 54 patients (17 %) with 57 benign nodules underwent thyroidectomy, mostly due to compressive symptoms (44 %). Thyroidectomy was more likely in younger patients [hazard ratio (HR) 0.97, 95 % CI 0.96-0.99] and patients with larger nodules (HR 1.3, 95 % CI 1.16-1.48). Two patients were found to have follicular thyroid cancer in the index nodule (0.6 %) and 6 patients had papillary thyroid cancer detected in other nodules (1.8 %). No patient died from thyroid cancer. Patients with benign thyroid nodules are unlikely to suffer morbidity or mortality due to thyroid cancer. Follow-up strategies for these patients should consider this excellent prognosis and avoid causing unnecessary fear in patients and adding unneeded expense and burden to the healthcare system.

SUBMITTER: Singh Ospina N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5155441 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Prognosis of patients with benign thyroid nodules: a population-based study.

Singh Ospina Naykky N Maraka Spyridoula S Espinosa de Ycaza Ana Elena AE Brito Juan P JP Castro M Regina MR Morris John C JC Montori Victor M VM

Endocrine 20160503 1

Most thyroid nodules are benign. The ideal follow-up of these patients should reflect their prognosis, which has been scarcely investigated. We aimed to evaluate the prognosis of patients with initial benign thyroid cytology. A population-based study, using the Rochester Epidemiology Project, identifying patients with benign thyroid cytology diagnosed between 2003 and 2006 and completely followed to 2014 using linked medical records. We identified 363 thyroid nodules with benign cytology in 327 ...[more]

PMID: 27142412

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Project description:IntroductionThe detection rate of benign thyroid nodules is increasing every year, with some affected patients experiencing symptoms. Ultrasound-guided thermal ablation can reduce the volume of nodules to alleviate symptoms. As the degree and speed of lesion absorption vary greatly between individuals, an effective model to predict curative effect after ablation is lacking. This study aims to predict the efficacy of ultrasound-guided thermal ablation for benign thyroid nodules using machine learning and explain the characteristics affecting the nodule volume reduction ratio (VRR).DesignProspective study.PatientsThe clinical and ultrasonic characteristics of patients who underwent ultrasound-guided thermal ablation of benign thyroid nodules at our hospital between January 2020 and January 2023 were recorded.MeasurementsSix machine learning models (logistic regression, support vector machine, decision tree, random forest, eXtreme Gradient Boosting [XGBoost], and Light Gradient Boosting Machine [LGBM]) were constructed to predict efficacy; the effectiveness of each model was evaluated, and the optimal model selected. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) was used to visualize the decision process of the optimal model and analyze the characteristics affecting the VRR.ResultsIn total, 518 benign thyroid nodules were included: 356 in the satisfactory group (VRR ≥70% 1 year after operation) and 162 in the unsatisfactory group. The optimal XGBoost model predicted satisfactory efficacy with 78.9% accuracy, 88.8% precision, 79.8% recall rate, an F1 value of 0.84 F1, and an area under the curve of 0.86. The top five characteristics that affected VRRs were the proportion of solid components < 20%, initial nodule volume, blood flow score, peripheral blood flow pattern, and proportion of solid components 50-80%.ConclusionsThe models, based on interpretable machine learning, predicted the VRR after thermal ablation for benign thyroid nodules, which provided a reference for preoperative treatment decisions.

Dataset Information

Prognosis of patients with benign thyroid nodules: a population-based study.

Publications

Prognosis of patients with benign thyroid nodules: a population-based study.

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