Dataset Information

The December 2015 North Pole Warming Event and the Increasing Occurrence of Such Events.

ABSTRACT: In late December 2015, widespread media interest revolved around forecasts that the surface air temperature at the North Pole would rise above freezing. Although there has been significant interest in the enhanced warming that is occurring at high northern latitudes, a process known as arctic amplification, remarkably little is known about these midwinter warming events at the pole including their frequency, duration and magnitude as well as the environmental conditions responsible for their occurrence. Here we use buoy and radiosonde data along with operational weather forecasts and atmospheric reanalyses to show that such events are associated with surface cyclones near the pole as well as a highly perturbed polar vortex. They occur once or twice each decade with the earliest identified event taking place in 1959. In addition, the warmest midwinter temperatures at the North Pole have been increasing at a rate that is twice as large as that for mean midwinter temperatures at the pole. It is argued that this enhanced trend is consistent with the loss of winter sea ice from the Nordic Seas that moves the reservoir of warm air over this region northwards making it easier for weather systems to transport this heat polewards.

SUBMITTER: Moore GW

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5157030 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

The December 2015 North Pole Warming Event and the Increasing Occurrence of Such Events.

Moore G W K GW

Scientific reports 20161215

In late December 2015, widespread media interest revolved around forecasts that the surface air temperature at the North Pole would rise above freezing. Although there has been significant interest in the enhanced warming that is occurring at high northern latitudes, a process known as arctic amplification, remarkably little is known about these midwinter warming events at the pole including their frequency, duration and magnitude as well as the environmental conditions responsible for their occ ...[more]

PMID: 27976745

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Project description:Beginning in December 2018, increased numbers of gray whale (Eschrichtius robustus) strandings were reported along the west coast of Mexico, the United States, and Canada, prompting declaration of a gray whale Unusual Mortality Event (UME) by the United States National Marine Fisheries Service. Although strandings declined in 2020 and 2021 from a peak in 2019, the UME is still ongoing as of fall 2023. Between 17 December 2018 and 31 December 2021, 503 animals stranded along the west coast of North America, with 226 strandings in Mexico, 71 in California, 12 in Oregon, 56 in Washington, 21 in British Columbia, and 117 in Alaska. These included 187 males, 167 females, and 149 whales of undetermined sex; and 193 adults, 194 subadults, 40 calves, 1 fetus, and 75 whales of undetermined age class. We report on 61 of the 503 carcasses (12%) that had external and internal gross necropsy and/or histopathology data: of these 61 whales, findings that contributed to death were identified in 33 (54%) whales. Sixteen of the 61 (26%) were severely emaciated. Gross lesions of blunt force trauma consistent with vessel strike were identified in 11 of the 61 animals (18%), only two of which were emaciated. Two whales (3%) were entangled at time of death, and one died from entrapment. Signs of killer whale (Orcinus orca) interaction were documented in 19 of the 61 animals; five were deemed from recent interactions and three (5%) likely contributed to mortality. A specific cause of death could not be identified in 28 of 61 whales (46%). Additionally, logistical challenges and the advanced state of decomposition of most examined carcasses precluded detection of potential infectious or toxic causes of morbidity or mortality. Up to 2016, the eastern North Pacific population of gray whale population had generally been increasing since the cessation of historic whaling and a prior UME in 1999-2000. However, recent abundance and calf production estimates have declined, a trend that overlaps the current UME. The relative contributions of carrying capacity, environmental change, prey shifts, and infectious, toxic, and other processes to the increased gray whale mortalities have not yet been resolved. Nevertheless, the marked temporal increase in strandings, including findings of malnutrition in some of the whales, along with low calf production, likely represent consequences of complex and dynamic ecological interactions in the ocean impacting the population.

Dataset Information

The December 2015 North Pole Warming Event and the Increasing Occurrence of Such Events.

Publications

The December 2015 North Pole Warming Event and the Increasing Occurrence of Such Events.

Similar Datasets

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