Mathematical Modeling of Programmatic Requirements for Yaws Eradication.
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SUBMITTER: Marks M
PROVIDER: S-EPMC5176210 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Jan
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Mathematical Modeling of Programmatic Requirements for Yaws Eradication.
Marks Michael M Mitjà Oriol O Mitjà Oriol O Fitzpatrick Christopher C Asiedu Kingsley K Solomon Anthony W AW Mabey David C W DC Funk Sebastian S
Emerging infectious diseases 20170101 1
Yaws is targeted for eradication by 2020. The mainstay of the eradication strategy is mass treatment followed by case finding. Modeling has been used to inform programmatic requirements for other neglected tropical diseases and could provide insights into yaws eradication. We developed a model of yaws transmission varying the coverage and number of rounds of treatment. The estimated number of cases arising from an index case (basic reproduction number [R<sub>0</sub>]) ranged from 1.08 to 3.32. T ...[more]
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Project description:Yaws is a neglected tropical disease targeted for eradication by 2030. To achieve eradication, finding and treating asymptomatic infections as well as clinical cases is crucial. The proposed plan, the Morges strategy, involves rounds of total community treatment (i.e., treating the whole population) and total targeted treatment (TTT) (i.e., treating clinical cases and contacts). However, modeling and empirical work suggests asymptomatic infections often are not found in the same households as clinical cases, reducing the utility of household-based contact tracing for a TTT strategy. We use a model fitted to data from the Solomon Islands to predict the likelihood of elimination of transmission under different intervention schemes and levels of systematic nontreatment resulting from the intervention. Our results indicate that implementing additional treatment rounds through total community treatment is more effective than conducting additional rounds of treatment of at-risk persons through TTT.
| S-EPMC7588528 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Trypanosome RNA polymerase II transcription is polycistronic, individual mRNAs being excised by trans splicing and polyadenylation. In this study, we refined the previously published mathematical model for bloodstream form parasites and extended it to the procyclic form. We used the model, together with known mRNA half-lives, to predict the abundances of individual mRNAs, assuming rapid, unregulated mRNA processing; then we compared the results with measured mRNA abundances. Remarkably, the abundances of most mRNAs in procyclic forms are predicted quite well by the model, being largely explained by variations in mRNA decay rates and length. In bloodstream forms substantially more mRNAs are less abundant than predicted. We list mRNAs that are likely to show particularly slow or inefficient processing, either in both forms or with developmental regulation. We also measured ribosome occupancies of all mRNAs in trypanosomes grown in the same conditions as were used to measure mRNA turnover. In procyclic forms there was a weak positive correlation between ribosome density and mRNA half-life, suggesting cross-talk between translation and mRNA decay; ribosome density was related to the proportion of the mRNA on polysomes, indicating control of translation initiation. Ribosomal protein mRNAs in procyclics appeared to be exceptionally rapidly processed but poorly translated. Through this study, we conclude that lLevels of mRNAs in procyclic form trypanosomes are determined mainly by length and mRNA decay, with some control of precursor processing. In bloodstream forms variations in nuclear events play a larger role in transcriptome regulation, suggesting acquisition of new control mechanisms during adaptation to mammalian parasitism. Ribosome profiling and mRNA libraries were constructed in triplicate from in vitro PCF and in duplicate from in vitro T. brucei Lister427, to understand global differntial gene transcription.
2016-03-16 | E-GEOD-79208 | biostudies-arrayexpress
Project description:Trypanosome RNA polymerase II transcription is polycistronic, individual mRNAs being excised by trans splicing and polyadenylation. In this study, we refined the previously published mathematical model for bloodstream form parasites and extended it to the procyclic form. We used the model, together with known mRNA half-lives, to predict the abundances of individual mRNAs, assuming rapid, unregulated mRNA processing; then we compared the results with measured mRNA abundances. Remarkably, the abundances of most mRNAs in procyclic forms are predicted quite well by the model, being largely explained by variations in mRNA decay rates and length. In bloodstream forms substantially more mRNAs are less abundant than predicted. We list mRNAs that are likely to show particularly slow or inefficient processing, either in both forms or with developmental regulation. We also measured ribosome occupancies of all mRNAs in trypanosomes grown in the same conditions as were used to measure mRNA turnover. In procyclic forms there was a weak positive correlation between ribosome density and mRNA half-life, suggesting cross-talk between translation and mRNA decay; ribosome density was related to the proportion of the mRNA on polysomes, indicating control of translation initiation. Ribosomal protein mRNAs in procyclics appeared to be exceptionally rapidly processed but poorly translated. Through this study, we conclude that lLevels of mRNAs in procyclic form trypanosomes are determined mainly by length and mRNA decay, with some control of precursor processing. In bloodstream forms variations in nuclear events play a larger role in transcriptome regulation, suggesting acquisition of new control mechanisms during adaptation to mammalian parasitism.
2016-03-16 | GSE79208 | GEO
Project description:BackgroundTreponema pallidum subspecies pertenue causes yaws. Strategies to better control, eliminate, and eradicate yaws are needed.MethodsIn an open-label, cluster-randomized, community-based trial conducted in a yaws-endemic area of Papua New Guinea, we randomly assigned 38 wards (i.e., clusters) to receive one round of mass administration of azithromycin followed by two rounds of target treatment of active cases (control group) or three rounds of mass administration of azithromycin (experimental group); round 1 was administered at baseline, round 2 at 6 months, and round 3 at 12 months. The coprimary end points were the prevalence of active cases of yaws, confirmed by polymerase-chain-reaction assay, in the entire trial population and the prevalence of latent yaws, confirmed by serologic testing, in a subgroup of asymptomatic children 1 to 15 years of age; prevalences were measured at 18 months, and the between-group differences were calculated.ResultsOf the 38 wards, 19 were randomly assigned to the control group (30,438 persons) and 19 to the experimental group (26,238 persons). A total of 24,848 doses of azithromycin were administered in the control group (22,033 were given to the participants at round 1 and 207 and 2608 were given to the participants with yaws-like lesions and their contacts, respectively, at rounds 2 and 3 [combined]), and 59,852 doses were administered in the experimental group. At 18 months, the prevalence of active yaws had decreased from 0.46% (102 of 22,033 persons) at baseline to 0.16% (47 of 29,954 persons) in the control group and from 0.43% (87 of 20,331 persons) at baseline to 0.04% (10 of 25,987 persons) in the experimental group (relative risk adjusted for clustering, 4.08; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.90 to 8.76). The prevalence of other infectious ulcers decreased to a similar extent in the two treatment groups. The prevalence of latent yaws at 18 months was 6.54% (95% CI, 5.00 to 8.08) among 994 children in the control group and 3.28% (95% CI, 2.14 to 4.42) among 945 children in the experimental group (relative risk adjusted for clustering and age, 2.03; 95% CI, 1.12 to 3.70). Three cases of yaws with resistance to macrolides were found in the experimental group.ConclusionsThe reduction in the community prevalence of yaws was greater with three rounds of mass administration of azithromycin at 6-month intervals than with one round of mass administration of azithromycin followed by two rounds of targeted treatment. Monitoring for the emergence and spread of antimicrobial resistance is needed. (Funded by Fundació "la Caixa" and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03490123.).
| S-EPMC7612200 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundYaws is targeted for eradication by 2030, using a strategy based on mass drug administration (MDA) with azithromycin. New diagnostics are needed to aid eradication. Serology is currently the mainstay for yaws diagnosis; however, inaccuracies associated with current serological tests makes it difficult to fully assess the need for and impact of eradication campaigns using these tools. Under the recommendation of the WHO Diagnostic Technical Advisory Group (DTAG) for Neglected Tropical Diseases(NTDs), a working group was assembled and tasked with agreeing on priority use cases for developing target product profiles (TPPs) for new diagnostics tools.Methodology and principal findingsThe working group convened three times and established two use cases: identifying a single case of yaws and detecting azithromycin resistance. One subgroup assessed the current diagnostic landscape for yaws and a second subgroup determined the test requirements for both use cases. Draft TPPs were sent out for input from stakeholders and experts. Both TPPs considered the following parameters: product use, design, performance, configuration, cost, access and equity. To identify a single case of yaws, the test should be able to detect an analyte which confirms an active infection with at least 95% sensitivity and 99.9% specificity. The high specificity was deemed important to avoid a high false positive rate which could result in unnecessary continuation or initiation of MDA campaigns. If used in settings where the number of suspected cases is low, further testing could be considered to compensate for imperfect sensitivity and to improve specificity. The test to detect azithromycin resistance should be able to detect known genetic resistance mutations with a minimum sensitivity and specificity of 95%, with the caveat that all patients with suspected treatment failure should be treated as having resistant yaws and offered alternative treatment.ConclusionsThe TPPs developed will provide test developers with guidance to ensure that novel diagnostic tests meet identified public health needs.
| S-EPMC9473620 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionA disabling and disfiguring disease that "begins where the road ends", yaws is targeted by WHO for eradication by the year 2020. The global campaign is not yet financed. To evaluate yaws eradication within the context of the post-2015 development agenda, we perform a somewhat allegorical cost-effectiveness analysis of eradication, comparing it to a counterfactual in which we simply wait for more roads (the end of poverty).MethodsWe use evidence from four yaws eradication pilot sites and other mass treatment campaigns to set benchmarks for the cost of eradication in 12 known endemic countries. We construct a compartmental model of long-term health effects to 2050. Conservatively, we attribute zero cost to the counterfactual and allow for gradual exit of the susceptible (at risk) population by road (poverty reduction). We report mean, 5th and 95th centile estimates to reflect uncertainty about costs and effects.ResultsOur benchmark for the economic cost of yaws eradication is uncertain but not high -US$ 362 (75-1073) million in 12 countries. Eradication would cost US$ 26 (4.2-78) for each year of life lived without disability or disfigurement due to yaws, or US$ 324 (47-936) per disability-adjusted life year (DALY). Excluding drugs, existing staff and assets, the financial cost benchmark is US$ 213 (74-522) million. The real cost of waiting for more roads (poverty reduction) would be 13 (7.3-20) million years of life affected by early-stage yaws and 2.3 (1.1-4.2) million years of life affected by late-stage yaws.DiscussionEndemic countries need financing to begin implementing and adapting global strategy to local conditions. Donations of drugs and diagnostics could reduce cost to the public sector and catalyze financing. Resources may be harnessed from the extractive industries. Yaws eradication should be seen as complementary to universal health coverage and shared prosperity on the post-2015 development agenda.
| S-EPMC4177754 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background:Yaws-like chronic ulcers can be caused by Treponema pallidum subspecies pertenue, Haemophilus ducreyi, or other, still-undefined bacteria. To permit accurate evaluation of yaws elimination efforts, programmatic use of molecular diagnostics is required. The accuracy and sensitivity of current tools remain unclear because our understanding of T. pallidum diversity is limited by the low number of sequenced genomes. Methods:We tested samples from patients with suspected yaws collected in the Solomon Islands and Ghana. All samples were from patients whose lesions had previously tested negative using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) diagnostic assay in widespread use. However, some of these patients had positive serological assays for yaws on blood. We used direct whole-genome sequencing to identify T. pallidum subsp pertenue strains missed by the current assay. Results:From 45 Solomon Islands and 27 Ghanaian samples, 11 were positive for T. pallidum DNA using the species-wide quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay, from which we obtained 6 previously undetected T. pallidum subsp pertenue whole-genome sequences. These show that Solomon Islands sequences represent distinct T. pallidum subsp pertenue clades. These isolates were invisible to the CDC diagnostic PCR assay, due to sequence variation in the primer binding site. Conclusions:Our data double the number of published T. pallidum subsp pertenue genomes. We show that Solomon Islands strains are undetectable by the PCR used in many studies and by health ministries. This assay is therefore not adequate for the eradication program. Next-generation genome sequence data are essential for these efforts.
| S-EPMC5848336 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe World Health Organization (WHO) has targeted yaws for global eradication. Eradication requires certification that all countries are yaws-free. While only 14 Member States currently report cases to WHO, many more are known to have a history of yaws and some of them may have ongoing transmission. We reviewed the literature and developed a model of case reports to identify countries in which passive surveillance is likely to find and report cases if transmission is still occurring, with the goal of reducing the number of countries in which more costly active surveillance will be required.MethodsWe reviewed published and unpublished documents to extract data on the number of yaws cases reported to WHO or appearing in other literature in any year between 1945 and 2015. We classified countries as: a) having interrupted transmission; b) being currently endemic; c) being previously endemic (current status unknown); or d) having no history of yaws. We constructed a panel dataset for the years 1945-2015 and ran a regression model to identify factors associated with some countries not reporting cases during periods when there was ongoing (and documented) transmission. For previously endemic countries whose current status is unknown, we then estimated the probability that countries would have reported cases if there had in fact been transmission in the last three years (2013-2015).ResultsYaws has been reported in 103 of the 237 countries and areas considered. 14 Member States and 1 territory (Wallis and Futuna Islands) are currently endemic. 2 countries are believed to have interrupted transmission. 86 countries and areas are previously endemic (current status unknown). Reported cases peaked in the 1950s, with 55 countries reporting at least one case in 1950 and a total of 2.35 million cases reported in 1954. Our regression model suggests that case reporting during periods of ongoing transmission is positively associated with socioeconomic development and, in the short-term, negatively associated with independence. We estimated that for 66 out of the 86 previously endemic countries whose current status is unknown, the probability of reporting cases in the absence of active surveillance is less than 50%.DiscussionCountries with a history of yaws need to be prioritized so that international resources for global yaws eradication may be deployed efficiently. Heretofore, the focus has been on mass treatment in countries currently reporting cases. It is also important to undertake surveillance in the 86 previously endemic countries for which the current status is unknown. Within this large and diverse group, we have identified a group of 20 countries with more than a 50% probability of reporting cases in the absence of active surveillance. For the other 66 countries, international support for active surveillance will likely be required.
| S-EPMC6294396 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We introduced a new nonassociative algebra, namely, left almost algebra, and discussed some of its genetic properties. We discussed the relation of this algebra with flexible algebra, Jordan algebra, and generalized Jordan algebra.
| S-EPMC5525089 | biostudies-other
Project description:Background and objectivesLiposuction continues to be one of the most popular procedures performed in cosmetic surgery. As the public's demand for body contouring continues, laser lipolysis has been proposed to improve results, minimize risk, optimize patient comfort, and reduce the recovery period. Mathematical modeling of laser lipolysis could provide a better understanding of the laser lipolysis process and could determine the optimal dosage as a function of fat volume to be removed.Study design/materials and methodsAn Optical-Thermal-Damage Model was formulated using finite-element modeling software (Femlab 3.1, Comsol Inc). The general model simulated light distribution using the diffusion approximation of the transport theory, temperature rise using the bioheat equation and laser-induced injury using the Arrhenius damage model. Biological tissue was represented by two homogenous regions (dermis and fat layer) with a nonlinear air-tissue boundary condition including free convection. Video recordings were used to gain a better understanding of the back and forth movement of the cannula during laser lipolysis in order to consider them in our mathematical model. Infrared video recordings were also performed in order to compare the actual surface temperatures to our calculations. The reduction in fat volume was determined as a function of the total applied energy and subsequently compared to clinical data reported in the literature.ResultsIn patients, when using cooled tumescent anesthesia, 1064 nm Nd:YAG laser or 980 nm diode laser: (6 W, back and forth motion: 100 mm/s) give similar skin surface temperature (max: 41 degrees C). These measurements are in accordance with those obtained by mathematical modeling performed with a 1 mm cannula inserted inside the hypodermis layer at 0.8 cm below the surface. Similarly, the fat volume reduction observed in patients at 6-month follow up can be determined by mathematical modeling. This fat reduction depends on the applied energy, typically 5 cm3 for 3000 J. At last, skin retraction was observed in patients at 6-month follow up. This observation can be easily explained by mathematical modeling showing that the temperature increase inside the lower dermis is sufficient (48-50 degrees C) to induce skin tighteningDiscussion and conclusionLaser lipolysis can be described by a theoretical model. Fat volume reduction observed in patients is in accordance with model calculations. Due to heat diffusion, temperature elevation is also produced inside the lower reticular dermis. This interesting observation can explain remodeling of the collagenous tissue, with clinically evident skin tightening. In conclusion, while the heat generated by interstitial laser irradiation provides stimulate lipolysis of the fat cells, the collagen and elastin are also stimulated resulting in a tightening in the skin. This mathematical model should serve as a useful tool to simulate and better understand the mechanism of action of the laser lipolysis.
| S-EPMC2292728 | biostudies-literature