Dataset Information

Identifying Children at Risk of High Myopia Using Population Centile Curves of Refraction.

ABSTRACT:

Purpose

To construct reference centile curves of refraction based on population-based data as an age-specific severity scale to evaluate their efficacy as a tool for identifying children at risk of developing high myopia in a longitudinal study.

Methods

Data of 4218 children aged 5-15 years from the Guangzhou Refractive Error Study in Children (RESC) study, and 354 first-born twins from the Guangzhou Twin Eye Study (GTES) with annual visit were included in the analysis. Reference centile curves for refraction were constructed using a quantile regression model based on the cycloplegic refraction data from the RESC. The risk of developing high myopia (spherical equivalent ? -6 diopters [D]) was evaluated as a diagnostic test using the twin follow-up data.

Results

The centile curves suggested that the 3rd, 5th, and 10th percentile decreased from -0.25 D, 0.00 D and 0.25 D in 5 year-olds to -6.00 D, -5.65D and -4.63 D in 15 year-olds in the population-based data from RESC. In the GTES cohort, the 5th centile showed the most effective diagnostic value with a sensitivity of 92.9%, a specificity of 97.9% and a positive predictive value (PPV) of 65.0% in predicting high myopia onset (?-6.00D) before the age of 15 years. The PPV was highest (87.5%) in 3rd centile but with only 50.0% sensitivity. The Mathew's correlation coefficient of 5th centile in predicting myopia of -6.0D/-5.0D/-4.0D by age of 15 was 0.77/0.51/0.30 respectively.

Conclusions

Reference centile curves provide an age-specific estimation on a severity scale of refractive error in school-aged children. Children located under lower percentiles at young age were more likely to have high myopia at 15 years or probably in adulthood.

SUBMITTER: Chen Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5193395 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Identifying Children at Risk of High Myopia Using Population Centile Curves of Refraction.

Chen Yanxian Y Zhang Jian J Morgan Ian G IG He Mingguang M

PloS one 20161228 12

<h4>Purpose</h4>To construct reference centile curves of refraction based on population-based data as an age-specific severity scale to evaluate their efficacy as a tool for identifying children at risk of developing high myopia in a longitudinal study.<h4>Methods</h4>Data of 4218 children aged 5-15 years from the Guangzhou Refractive Error Study in Children (RESC) study, and 354 first-born twins from the Guangzhou Twin Eye Study (GTES) with annual visit were included in the analysis. Reference ...[more]

PMID: 28030593

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Project description:BackgroundElectronic medical records provide large-scale real-world clinical data for use in developing clinical decision systems. However, sophisticated methodology and analytical skills are required to handle the large-scale datasets necessary for the optimisation of prediction accuracy. Myopia is a common cause of vision loss. Current approaches to control myopia progression are effective but have significant side effects. Therefore, identifying those at greatest risk who should undergo targeted therapy is of great clinical importance. The objective of this study was to apply big data and machine learning technology to develop an algorithm that can predict the onset of high myopia, at specific future time points, among Chinese school-aged children.Methods and findingsReal-world clinical refraction data were derived from electronic medical record systems in 8 ophthalmic centres from January 1, 2005, to December 30, 2015. The variables of age, spherical equivalent (SE), and annual progression rate were used to develop an algorithm to predict SE and onset of high myopia (SE ≤ -6.0 dioptres) up to 10 years in the future. Random forest machine learning was used for algorithm training and validation. Electronic medical records from the Zhongshan Ophthalmic Centre (a major tertiary ophthalmic centre in China) were used as the training set. Ten-fold cross-validation and out-of-bag (OOB) methods were applied for internal validation. The remaining 7 independent datasets were used for external validation. Two population-based datasets, which had no participant overlap with the ophthalmic-centre-based datasets, were used for multi-resource validation testing. The main outcomes and measures were the area under the curve (AUC) values for predicting the onset of high myopia over 10 years and the presence of high myopia at 18 years of age. In total, 687,063 multiple visit records (≥3 records) of 129,242 individuals in the ophthalmic-centre-based electronic medical record databases and 17,113 follow-up records of 3,215 participants in population-based cohorts were included in the analysis. Our algorithm accurately predicted the presence of high myopia in internal validation (the AUC ranged from 0.903 to 0.986 for 3 years, 0.875 to 0.901 for 5 years, and 0.852 to 0.888 for 8 years), external validation (the AUC ranged from 0.874 to 0.976 for 3 years, 0.847 to 0.921 for 5 years, and 0.802 to 0.886 for 8 years), and multi-resource testing (the AUC ranged from 0.752 to 0.869 for 4 years). With respect to the prediction of high myopia development by 18 years of age, as a surrogate of high myopia in adulthood, the algorithm provided clinically acceptable accuracy over 3 years (the AUC ranged from 0.940 to 0.985), 5 years (the AUC ranged from 0.856 to 0.901), and even 8 years (the AUC ranged from 0.801 to 0.837). Meanwhile, our algorithm achieved clinically acceptable prediction of the actual refraction values at future time points, which is supported by the regressive performance and calibration curves. Although the algorithm achieved balanced and robust performance, concerns about the compromised quality of real-world clinical data and over-fitting issues should be cautiously considered.ConclusionsTo our knowledge, this study, for the first time, used large-scale data collected from electronic health records to demonstrate the contribution of big data and machine learning approaches to improved prediction of myopia prognosis in Chinese school-aged children. This work provides evidence for transforming clinical practice, health policy-making, and precise individualised interventions regarding the practical control of school-aged myopia.

Project description:The aim of this study is to investigate if baseline relative peripheral refraction (RPR) influences the myopia control effects in Chinese myopic children wearing Defocus Incorporated Multiple Segments (DIMS) lenses. Peripheral refraction at 10°, 20°, and 30° nasal (10 N, 20 N, 30 N) and temporal (10 T, 20 T, 30 T) retina were measured at six-month intervals for children who participated in a 2-year randomized controlled trial. The relationship between the baseline peripheral refractions and myopia progression and axial length changes were analysed. A total of 79 children and 81 children in the DIMS and single vision (SV) group were investigated, respectively. In the DIMS group, more baseline myopic RPR spherical equivalent (SE) was associated with more myopic progression (10 N: r = 0.36, p = 0.001; 20 N: r = 0.35, p = 0.001) and greater axial elongation (10 N: r = −0.34, p = 0.001; 20 N: r = −0.29, p = 0.006) after adjusting for co-factors. In the SV group, baseline RPR had association with only myopia progression (10 N: r = 0.37, p = 0.001; 20 N: r = 0.36, p = 0.001; 30 N: r = 0.35, p = 0.002) but not with axial elongation after Bonferroni correction (p > 0.008). No statistically significant relationship was found between temporal retina and myopia progression or axial elongation in both groups. Children with baseline myopic RPR had statistically significant more myopia progression (mean difference around −0.40 D) and more axial elongation (mean difference 0.15 mm) when compared with the children having baseline hyperopic RPR in the DIMS group but not in the SV group. In conclusion, the baseline RPR profile may not influence future myopia progression or axial elongation for the SV lens wearers. However, DIMS lenses slowed down myopia progression and was better in myopia control for the children with baseline hyperopic RPR than the children with myopic RPR. This may partially explain why myopia control effects vary among myopic children. Customised myopic defocus for individuals may optimise myopia control effects, and further research to determine the optimal dosage, with consideration of peripheral retinal profile, is warranted.

Project description:ObjectiveMany healthcare systems employ population-based risk scores to prospectively identify patients at high risk of poor outcomes, but it is unclear whether single point-in-time scores adequately represent future risk. We sought to identify and characterize latent subgroups of high-risk patients based on risk score trajectories.Study designObservational study of 7289 patients discharged from Veterans Health Administration (VA) hospitals during a 1-week period in November 2012 and categorized in the top 5th percentile of risk for hospitalization.MethodsUsing VA administrative data, we calculated weekly risk scores using the validated Care Assessment Needs model, reflecting the predicted probability of hospitalization. We applied the non-parametric k-means algorithm to identify latent subgroups of patients based on the trajectory of patients' hospitalization probability over a 2-year period. We then compared baseline sociodemographic characteristics, comorbidities, health service use, and social instability markers between identified latent subgroups.ResultsThe best-fitting model identified two subgroups: moderately high and persistently high risk. The moderately high subgroup included 65% of patients and was characterized by moderate subgroup-level hospitalization probability decreasing from 0.22 to 0.10 between weeks 1 and 66, then remaining constant through the study end. The persistently high subgroup, comprising the remaining 35% of patients, had a subgroup-level probability increasing from 0.38 to 0.41 between weeks 1 and 52, and declining to 0.30 at study end. Persistently high-risk patients were older, had higher prevalence of social instability and comorbidities, and used more health services.ConclusionsOn average, one third of patients initially identified as high risk stayed at very high risk over a 2-year follow-up period, while risk for the other two thirds decreased to a moderately high level. This suggests that multiple approaches may be needed to address high-risk patient needs longitudinally or intermittently.

Dataset Information

Identifying Children at Risk of High Myopia Using Population Centile Curves of Refraction.

Purpose

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Identifying Children at Risk of High Myopia Using Population Centile Curves of Refraction.

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