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Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model-II: Redefining the Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model With Septic Shock Phenotype.

ABSTRACT: The Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model (PERSEVERE), a pediatric sepsis risk model, uses biomarkers to estimate baseline mortality risk for pediatric septic shock. It is unknown how PERSEVERE performs within distinct septic shock phenotypes. We tested PERSEVERE in children with septic shock and thrombocytopenia-associated multiple organ failure (TAMOF), and in those without new onset thrombocytopenia but with multiple organ failure (MOF).PERSEVERE-based mortality risk was generated for each study subject (n = 660). A priori, we determined that if PERSEVERE did not perform well in both the TAMOF and the MOF cohorts, we would revise PERSEVERE to incorporate admission platelet counts.Multiple PICUs in the United States.Standard care.PERSEVERE performed well in the TAMOF cohort (areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves [AUC], 0.84 [95% CI, 0.77-0.90]), but less well in the MOF cohort (AUC, 0.71 [0.61-0.80]). PERSEVERE was revised using 424 subjects previously reported in the derivation phase. PERSEVERE-II had an AUC of 0.89 (0.85-0.93) and performed equally well across TAMOF and MOF cohorts. PERSEVERE-II performed well when tested in 236 newly enrolled subjects. Sample size calculations for a clinical trial testing the efficacy of plasma exchange for children with septic shock and TAMOF indicated PERSEVERE-II-based stratification could substantially reduce the number of patients necessary, when compared with no stratification.Testing PERSEVERE in the context of septic shock phenotypes prompted a revision incorporating platelet count. PERSEVERE-II performs well upon testing, independent of TAMOF or MOF status. PERSEVERE-II could potentially serve as a prognostic enrichment tool.

SUBMITTER: Wong HR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5201138 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model-II: Redefining the Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model With Septic Shock Phenotype.

Wong Hector R HR Cvijanovich Natalie Z NZ Anas Nick N Allen Geoffrey L GL Thomas Neal J NJ Bigham Michael T MT Weiss Scott L SL Fitzgerald Julie J Checchia Paul A PA Meyer Keith K Quasney Michael M Hall Mark M Gedeit Rainer R Freishtat Robert J RJ Nowak Jeffrey J Raj Shekhar S SS Gertz Shira S Howard Kelli K Harmon Kelli K Lahni Patrick P Frank Erin E Hart Kimberly W KW Nguyen Trung C TC Lindsell Christopher J CJ

Critical care medicine 20161101 11

<h4>Objective</h4>The Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model (PERSEVERE), a pediatric sepsis risk model, uses biomarkers to estimate baseline mortality risk for pediatric septic shock. It is unknown how PERSEVERE performs within distinct septic shock phenotypes. We tested PERSEVERE in children with septic shock and thrombocytopenia-associated multiple organ failure (TAMOF), and in those without new onset thrombocytopenia but with multiple organ failure (MOF).<h4>Design</h4>PERSEVERE-based mortali ...[more]

PMID: 27513537

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Project description:IntroductionThe intrinsic heterogeneity of clinical septic shock is a major challenge. For clinical trials, individual patient management, and quality improvement efforts, it is unclear which patients are least likely to survive and thus benefit from alternative treatment approaches. A robust risk stratification tool would greatly aid decision-making. The objective of our study was to derive and test a multi-biomarker-based risk model to predict outcome in pediatric septic shock.MethodsTwelve candidate serum protein stratification biomarkers were identified from previous genome-wide expression profiling. To derive the risk stratification tool, biomarkers were measured in serum samples from 220 unselected children with septic shock, obtained during the first 24 hours of admission to the intensive care unit. Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis was used to generate a decision tree to predict 28-day all-cause mortality based on both biomarkers and clinical variables. The derived tree was subsequently tested in an independent cohort of 135 children with septic shock.ResultsThe derived decision tree included five biomarkers. In the derivation cohort, sensitivity for mortality was 91% (95% CI 70 - 98), specificity was 86% (80 - 90), positive predictive value was 43% (29 - 58), and negative predictive value was 99% (95 - 100). When applied to the test cohort, sensitivity was 89% (64 - 98) and specificity was 64% (55 - 73). In an updated model including all 355 subjects in the combined derivation and test cohorts, sensitivity for mortality was 93% (79 - 98), specificity was 74% (69 - 79), positive predictive value was 32% (24 - 41), and negative predictive value was 99% (96 - 100). False positive subjects in the updated model had greater illness severity compared to the true negative subjects, as measured by persistence of organ failure, length of stay, and intensive care unit free days.ConclusionsThe pediatric sepsis biomarker risk model (PERSEVERE; PEdiatRic SEpsis biomarkEr Risk modEl) reliably identifies children at risk of death and greater illness severity from pediatric septic shock. PERSEVERE has the potential to substantially enhance clinical decision making, to adjust for risk in clinical trials, and to serve as a septic shock-specific quality metric.

Project description:BACKGROUND:While the process of sepsis-induced immunosuppression is now well described in adults, very little information is available on immune functions in pediatric sepsis. The current study investigated this in children with septic shock by performing immunomonitoring, including both innate (monocyte human leukocyte antigen-DR, mHLA-DR, expression) and adaptive immunity (lymphocyte subsets count), as well as cytokine concentrations (IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, IL-1Ra, TNF-?, IFN-?). Subsequent objectives were to assess the associations between inflammatory response, potential immunosuppression and secondary acquired infection occurrence. METHODS:Single-center prospective observational study, including children aged between 1 month and 18 years admitted to pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) for septic shock. Age-matched controls were children hospitalized for elective surgery without any infectious criteria. Blood was sampled at day 1-2, 3-5, and 7-9 after sepsis onset. mHLA-DR and lymphocyte subsets count were measured by flow cytometry and cytokine concentrations by Luminex technology. RESULTS:A total of 26 children and 30 controls were included. Patients had lymphopenia, and mHLA-DR levels were significantly lower than controls at each time point (p?<?0.0001). All cytokines peaked at day 1-2. Children with secondary acquired infection had lower day 3-5 mHLA-DR and higher pro-inflammatory cytokine concentrations (IL-6, IL-8 and TNF-?) at day 1-2 compared to children without secondary acquired infection. CONCLUSIONS:The higher initial inflammatory cytokine production was, the more innate immunity was altered, while evaluated by low mHLA-DR expression. Children with decreased mHLA-DR expression developed more secondary acquired infections. Upon confirmation in multicenter cohorts, these results pave the way for immunostimulation for the most immunosuppressed children in order to prevent nosocomial infections in PICU. Trial registration PedIRIS study NCT02848144. Retrospectively registered 28 July 2016.

Dataset Information

Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model-II: Redefining the Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model With Septic Shock Phenotype.

Publications

Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model-II: Redefining the Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model With Septic Shock Phenotype.

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