Dataset Information

Reconstruction of Rift Valley fever transmission dynamics in Madagascar: estimation of force of infection from seroprevalence surveys using Bayesian modelling.

ABSTRACT: The force of infection (FOI) is one of the key parameters describing the dynamics of transmission of vector-borne diseases. Following the occurrence of two major outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in Madagascar in 1990-91 and 2008-09, recent studies suggest that the pattern of RVF virus (RVFV) transmission differed among the four main eco-regions (East, Highlands, North-West and South-West). Using Bayesian hierarchical models fitted to serological data from cattle of known age collected during two surveys (2008 and 2014), we estimated RVF FOI and described its variations over time and space in Madagascar. We show that the patterns of RVFV transmission strongly differed among the eco-regions. In the North-West and Highlands regions, these patterns were synchronous with a high intensity in mid-2007/mid-2008. In the East and South-West, the peaks of transmission were later, between mid-2008 and mid-2010. In the warm and humid northwestern eco-region favorable to mosquito populations, RVFV is probably transmitted all year-long at low-level during inter-epizootic period allowing its maintenance and being regularly introduced in the Highlands through ruminant trade. The RVF surveillance of animals of the northwestern region could be used as an early warning indicator of an increased risk of RVF outbreak in Madagascar.

SUBMITTER: Olive MM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5209714 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Reconstruction of Rift Valley fever transmission dynamics in Madagascar: estimation of force of infection from seroprevalence surveys using Bayesian modelling.

Olive Marie-Marie MM Grosbois Vladimir V Tran Annelise A Nomenjanahary Lalaina Arivony LA Rakotoarinoro Mihaja M Andriamandimby Soa-Fy SF Rogier Christophe C Heraud Jean-Michel JM Chevalier Veronique V

Scientific reports 20170104

The force of infection (FOI) is one of the key parameters describing the dynamics of transmission of vector-borne diseases. Following the occurrence of two major outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in Madagascar in 1990-91 and 2008-09, recent studies suggest that the pattern of RVF virus (RVFV) transmission differed among the four main eco-regions (East, Highlands, North-West and South-West). Using Bayesian hierarchical models fitted to serological data from cattle of known age collected during ...[more]

PMID: 28051125

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Project description:BackgroundRift Valley fever (RVF) is a mosquito-borne viral zoonosis caused by a phlebovirus and transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. Humans can also be infected through direct contact with blood (aerosols) or tissues (placenta, stillborn) of infected animals. Although severe clinical cases can be observed, infection with RVF virus (RVFV) in humans is, in most cases, asymptomatic or causes a febrile illness without serious symptoms. In small ruminants RVFV mainly causes abortion and neonatal death. The distribution of RVFV has been well documented in many African countries, particularly in the north (Egypt, Sudan), east (Kenya, Tanzania, Somalia), west (Senegal, Mauritania) and south (South Africa), but also in the Indian Ocean (Madagascar, Mayotte) and the Arabian Peninsula. In contrast, the prevalence of RVFV has rarely been investigated in central African countries.Methodology/principal findingsWe therefore conducted a large serological survey of rural populations in Gabon, involving 4,323 individuals from 212 randomly selected villages (10.3% of all Gabonese villages). RVFV-specific IgG was found in a total of 145 individuals (3.3%) suggesting the wide circulation of Rift Valley fever virus in Gabon. The seroprevalence was significantly higher in the lakes region than in forest and savannas zones, with respective rates of 8.3%, 2.9% and 2.2%. In the lakes region, RVFV-specific IgG was significantly more prevalent in males than in females (respectively 12.8% and 3.8%) and the seroprevalence increased gradually with age in males but not in females.Conclusions/significanceAlthough RVFV was suggested to circulate at a relatively high level in Gabon, no outbreaks or even isolated cases have been documented in the country. The higher prevalence in the lakes region is likely to be driven by specific ecologic conditions favorable to certain mosquito vector species. Males may be more at risk of infection than females because they spend more time farming and hunting outside the villages, where they may be more exposed to mosquito bites and infected animals. Further investigations are needed to determine the putative sylvan cycle of RVFV, including the mosquito species and the reservoir role of wild animals in the viral maintenance cycle.

Dataset Information

Reconstruction of Rift Valley fever transmission dynamics in Madagascar: estimation of force of infection from seroprevalence surveys using Bayesian modelling.

Publications

Reconstruction of Rift Valley fever transmission dynamics in Madagascar: estimation of force of infection from seroprevalence surveys using Bayesian modelling.

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