Dataset Information

Predicting Reoffending Using the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY): A 5-Year Follow-Up Study of Male Juvenile Offenders in Hunan Province, China.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Juvenile violent offending is a serious worldwide public health issue.

Objective

The study examined whether the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) can be used to predict violent reoffending in Chinese male juvenile offenders, and to determine which risk/protective domains (items) are associated with violent recidivism.

Methods

A total of 246 male juvenile offenders were recruited. SAVRY domains were scored by trained raters based on file review and interviews with participants and their legal guardians. Information on further arrests, charges, or convictions for violent offences were collected from police records over a five year follow-up.

Results

Over the course of the five year follow-up periods, 63 (25.6%) juvenile offenders were re-arrested for a further violent reoffence. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analyses showed Areas Under the Curve (AUCs) ranging from 0.60 to 0.68 for the SAVRY total, risk and protective score domains. Univariate logistic regression analysis showed that 7 of the 30 SAVRY items were significantly associated with reoffending; explaining 36.2% of the variance. Backward stepwise multiple logistic regression analysis showed the independently predictive items were items 2 ('history of non-violent offending'), 17 ('negative attitudes'), 18 ('risk-taking/impulsivity'), and 20 ('anger management problems'). Together these four items explained 25.0% of the variance in reoffending.

Conclusions

The results suggested that the SAVRY can be meaningfully used to inform the development and evaluation of effective violence risk assessment and management approaches for male juvenile offenders detained in a Youth Detention Center in Hunan province, China.

SUBMITTER: Zhou J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5226674 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Predicting Reoffending Using the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY): A 5-Year Follow-Up Study of Male Juvenile Offenders in Hunan Province, China.

Zhou Jiansong J Witt Katrina K Cao Xia X Chen Chen C Wang Xiaoping X

PloS one 20170111 1

<h4>Background</h4>Juvenile violent offending is a serious worldwide public health issue.<h4>Objective</h4>The study examined whether the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) can be used to predict violent reoffending in Chinese male juvenile offenders, and to determine which risk/protective domains (items) are associated with violent recidivism.<h4>Methods</h4>A total of 246 male juvenile offenders were recruited. SAVRY domains were scored by trained raters based on file revi ...[more]

PMID: 28076443

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Project description:Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death from a bacterial pathogen worldwide. China has the third highest TB burden in the world, with a high reported burden in Hunan Province (amongst others). This study aimed to investigate the spatial distribution of TB and identify socioeconomic, demographic, and environmental drivers in Hunan Province, China. Numbers of reported cases of TB were obtained from the Tuberculosis Control Institute of Hunan Province, China. A wide range of covariates were collected from different sources, including from the Worldclim database, and the Hunan Bureau of Statistics. These variables were summarized at the county level and linked with TB notification data. Spatial clustering of TB was explored using Moran's I statistic and the Getis-Ord statistic. Poisson regression models were developed with a conditional autoregressive (CAR) prior structure, and with posterior parameters estimated using a Bayesian approach with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. A total of 323,340 TB cases were reported to the Hunan TB Control Institute from 2013 to 2018. The mean age of patients was 51.7 years (SD + 17.6 years). The majority of the patients were male (72.6%, n = 234,682) and had pulmonary TB (97.5%, n = 315,350). Of 319,825 TB patients with registered treatment outcomes, 306,107 (95.7%) patients had a successful treatment outcome. The annual incidence of TB decreased over time from 85.5 per 100,000 population in 2013 to 76.9 per 100,000 population in 2018. TB case numbers have shown seasonal variation, with the highest number of cases reported during the end of spring and the beginning of summer. Spatial clustering of TB incidence was observed at the county level, with hotspot areas detected in the west part of Hunan Province. The spatial clustering of TB incidence was significantly associated with low sunshine exposure (RR: 0.86; 95% CrI: 0.74, 0.96) and a low prevalence of contraceptive use (RR: 0.88; 95% CrI: 0.79, 0.98). Substantial spatial clustering and seasonality of TB incidence were observed in Hunan Province, with spatial patterns associated with environmental and health care factors. This research suggests that interventions could be more efficiently targeted at locations and times of the year with the highest transmission risk.

Dataset Information

Predicting Reoffending Using the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY): A 5-Year Follow-Up Study of Male Juvenile Offenders in Hunan Province, China.

Background

Objective

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Predicting Reoffending Using the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY): A 5-Year Follow-Up Study of Male Juvenile Offenders in Hunan Province, China.

Similar Datasets

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