Dataset Information

Sample Size Estimation for Alzheimer's Disease Trials from Japanese ADNI Serial Magnetic Resonance Imaging.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Little is known about the sample sizes required for clinical trials of Alzheimer's disease (AD)-modifying treatments using atrophy measures from serial brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in the Japanese population.

Objective

The primary objective of the present study was to estimate how large a sample size would be needed for future clinical trials for AD-modifying treatments in Japan using atrophy measures of the brain as a surrogate biomarker.

Methods

Sample sizes were estimated from the rates of change of the whole brain and hippocampus by the k-means normalized boundary shift integral (KN-BSI) and cognitive measures using the data of 537 Japanese Alzheimer's Neuroimaging Initiative (J-ADNI) participants with a linear mixed-effects model. We also examined the potential use of ApoE status as a trial enrichment strategy.

Results

The hippocampal atrophy rate required smaller sample sizes than cognitive measures of AD and mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Inclusion of ApoE status reduced sample sizes for AD and MCI patients in the atrophy measures.

Conclusion

These results show the potential use of longitudinal hippocampal atrophy measurement using automated image analysis as a progression biomarker and ApoE status as a trial enrichment strategy in a clinical trial of AD-modifying treatment in Japanese people.

SUBMITTER: Fujishima M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5240548 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Sample Size Estimation for Alzheimer's Disease Trials from Japanese ADNI Serial Magnetic Resonance Imaging.

Fujishima Motonobu M Kawaguchi Atsushi A Maikusa Norihide N Kuwano Ryozo R Iwatsubo Takeshi T Matsuda Hiroshi H

Journal of Alzheimer's disease : JAD 20170101 1

<h4>Background</h4>Little is known about the sample sizes required for clinical trials of Alzheimer's disease (AD)-modifying treatments using atrophy measures from serial brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in the Japanese population.<h4>Objective</h4>The primary objective of the present study was to estimate how large a sample size would be needed for future clinical trials for AD-modifying treatments in Japan using atrophy measures of the brain as a surrogate biomarker.<h4>Methods</h4>Sampl ...[more]

PMID: 27911297

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundCrossover designs are commonly utilised in randomised controlled trials investigating treatments for long-term chronic illnesses. One problem with this design is its inherent repeated measures necessitate the availability of an estimate of the within-person standard deviation (SD) to perform a sample size calculation, which may be rarely available at the design stage of a trial. Interim sample size re-estimation designs can be used to help alleviate this issue by adapting the sample size mid-way through the trial, using accrued information in a statistically robust way.MethodsThe AIM HY-INFORM study is part of the Informative Markers in Hypertension (AIM HY) Programme and comprises two crossover trials, each with a planned recruitment of 600 participants. The objective of the study is to test whether blood pressure response to first line antihypertensive treatment depends on ethnicity. An interim analysis is planned to reassess the assumptions of the planned sample size for the study. The aims of this paper are: (1) to provide a formula for sample size re-estimation in both crossover trials; and (2) to present a simulation study of the planned interim analysis to investigate alternative within-person SDs to that assumed.ResultsThe AIM HY-INFORM protocol sample size calculation fixes the within-person SD to be 8 mmHg, giving > 90% power for a primary treatment effect of 4 mmHg. Using the method developed here and simulating the interim sample size reassessment, if we were to see a larger within-person SD of 9 mmHg at interim, 640 participants for 90% power 90% of the time in the three-period three-treatment design would be required. Similarly, in the four-period four-treatment crossover design, 602 participants would be required.ConclusionsThe formulas presented here provide a method for re-estimating the sample size in crossover trials. In the context of the AIM HY-INFORM study, simulating the interim analysis allows us to explore the results of a possible increase in the within-person SD from that assumed. Simulations show that without increasing the planned sample size of 600 participants, we can reasonably still expect to achieve 80% power with a small increase in the within-person SD from that assumed.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02847338. Registered on 28 July 2016.

Project description:BACKGROUND/AIMS:Clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease have been aimed primarily at persons who have cognitive symptoms at enrollment. However, researchers are now recognizing that the pathophysiological process of Alzheimer's disease begins years, if not decades, prior to the onset of clinical symptoms. Successful intervention may require intervening early in the disease process. Critical issues arise in designing clinical trials for primary and secondary prevention of Alzheimer's disease including determination of sample sizes and follow-up duration. We address a number of these issues through application of a unifying multistate model for the preclinical course of Alzheimer's disease. A multistate model allows us to specify at which points during the long disease process the intervention exerts its effects. METHODS:We used a nonhomogeneous Markov multistate model for the progression of Alzheimer's disease through preclinical disease states defined by biomarkers, mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer's disease dementia. We used transition probabilities based on several published cohort studies. Sample size methods were developed that account for factors including the initial preclinical disease state of trial participants, the primary endpoint, age-dependent transition and mortality rates and specifications of which transition rates are the targets of the intervention. RESULTS:We find that Alzheimer's disease prevention trials with a clinical primary endpoint of mild cognitive impairment or Alzheimer's disease dementia will require sample sizes of the order many thousands of individuals with at least 5 years of follow-up, which is larger than most Alzheimer's disease therapeutic trials conducted to date. The reasons for the large trial sizes include the long and variable preclinical period that spans decades, high rates of attrition among elderly populations due to mortality and losses to follow-up and potential selection effects, whereby healthier subjects enroll in prevention trials. A web application is available to perform sample size calculations using the methods reported here. CONCLUSION:Sample sizes based on multistate models can account for the points in the disease process when interventions exert their effects and may lead to more accurate sample size determinations. We will need innovative strategies to help design Alzheimer's disease prevention trials with feasible sample size requirements and durations of follow-up.

Project description:5xFAD transgenic (TG) mice are used widely in AD preclinical trials; however, data on sample sizes are largely unaddressed. We therefore performed estimates of sample sizes and effect sizes for typical behavioural and neuropathological outcome measures in TG 5xFAD mice, based upon data from single-sex (female) groups. Group-size estimates to detect normalisation of TG body weight to WT littermate levels at 5.5m of age were N = 9-15 depending upon algorithm. However, by 1 year of age, group sizes were small (N = 1 -<6), likely reflecting the large difference between genotypes at this age. To detect normalisation of TG open-field hyperactivity to WT levels at 13-14m, group sizes were also small (N = 6-8). Cued learning in the Morris water maze (MWM) was normal in Young TG mice (5m of age). Mild deficits were noted during MWM spatial learning and memory. MWM reversal learning and memory revealed greater impairment, and groups of up to 22 TG mice were estimated to detect normalisation to WT performance. In contrast, Aged TG mice (tested between 13 and 14m) failed to complete the visual learning (non-spatial) phase of MWM learning, likely due to a failure to recognise the platform as an escape. Estimates of group size to detect normalisation of this severe impairment were small (N = 6-9, depending upon algorithm). Other cognitive tests including spontaneous and forced alternation and novel-object recognition either failed to reveal deficits in TG mice or deficits were negligible. For neuropathological outcomes, plaque load, astrocytosis and microgliosis in frontal cortex and hippocampus were quantified in TG mice aged 2m, 4m and 6m. Sample-size estimates were ≤9 to detect the equivalent of a reduction in plaque load to the level of 2m-old TG mice or the equivalent of normalisation of neuroinflammation outcomes. However, for a smaller effect size of 30%, larger groups of up to 21 mice were estimated. In light of published guidelines on preclinical trial design, these data may be used to provide provisional sample sizes and optimise preclinical trials in 5xFAD TG mice.

Dataset Information

Sample Size Estimation for Alzheimer's Disease Trials from Japanese ADNI Serial Magnetic Resonance Imaging.

Background

Objective

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Sample Size Estimation for Alzheimer's Disease Trials from Japanese ADNI Serial Magnetic Resonance Imaging.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets