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Testing the hypothesis that treatment can eliminate HIV: a nationwide, population-based study of the Danish HIV epidemic in men who have sex with men.

ABSTRACT: Worldwide, approximately 35 million individuals are infected with HIV; about 25 million of these live in sub-Saharan Africa. WHO proposes using treatment as prevention (TasP) to eliminate HIV. Treatment suppresses viral load, decreasing the probability an individual transmits HIV. The elimination threshold is one new HIV infection per 1000 individuals. Here, we test the hypothesis that TasP can substantially reduce epidemics and eliminate HIV. We estimate the impact of TasP, between 1996 and 2013, on the Danish HIV epidemic in men who have sex with men (MSM), an epidemic UNAIDS has identified as a priority for elimination.We use a CD4-staged Bayesian back-calculation approach to estimate incidence, and the hidden epidemic (the number of HIV-infected undiagnosed MSM). To develop the back-calculation model, we use data from an ongoing nationwide population-based study: the Danish HIV Cohort Study.Incidence, and the hidden epidemic, decreased substantially after treatment was introduced in 1996. By 2013, incidence was close to the elimination threshold: 1·4 (median, 95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI] 0·4-2·1) new HIV infections per 1000 MSM and there were only 617 (264-858) undiagnosed MSM. Decreasing incidence and increasing treatment coverage were highly correlated; a treatment threshold effect was apparent.Our study is the first to show that TasP can substantially reduce a country's HIV epidemic, and bring it close to elimination. However, we have shown the effectiveness of TasP under optimal conditions: very high treatment coverage, and exceptionally high (98%) viral suppression rate. Unless these extremely challenging conditions can be met in sub-Saharan Africa, the WHO's global elimination strategy is unlikely to succeed.National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

SUBMITTER: Okano JT

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5242518 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Testing the hypothesis that treatment can eliminate HIV: a nationwide, population-based study of the Danish HIV epidemic in men who have sex with men.

Okano Justin T JT Robbins Danielle D Palk Laurence L Gerstoft Jan J Obel Niels N Blower Sally S

The Lancet. Infectious diseases 20160509 7

<h4>Background</h4>Worldwide, approximately 35 million individuals are infected with HIV; about 25 million of these live in sub-Saharan Africa. WHO proposes using treatment as prevention (TasP) to eliminate HIV. Treatment suppresses viral load, decreasing the probability an individual transmits HIV. The elimination threshold is one new HIV infection per 1000 individuals. Here, we test the hypothesis that TasP can substantially reduce epidemics and eliminate HIV. We estimate the impact of TasP, b ...[more]

PMID: 27174504

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Project description:BackgroundMany interventions find that social media engagement with health promotion materials can translate into behavioral changes. However, only a few studies have examined the ways in which specific actions on various social media platforms are correlated with health behaviors.ObjectiveThe objective of this study was to examine the association between social media use and HIV testing behaviors among Chinese men who have sex with men (MSM).MethodsIn July 2016, a Web-based survey was conducted to recruit MSM in 8 Chinese cities through Blued (Blue City Holdings Ltd.), the world's largest gay mobile phone app. Data on sociodemographic variables, social media use platforms and behaviors, sexual behaviors, and HIV testing histories were collected. HIV testing-related social media use was defined as having ever engaged with HIV testing content on social media, which was further divided into observing (ie, receiving), endorsing (eg, liking and sharing), and contributing (eg, posting or commenting on HIV testing materials). Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was conducted to determine the best division of HIV testing-related social media use. Univariate and multivariable logistic regressions were used to examine the association between HIV testing-related social media use and HIV testing behaviors.ResultsA total of 2105 individuals participated in the survey. Among them, 46.75% (984) were under the age of 24 years, 35.43% (746) had high school education or less, and 47.74% (587) had condomless sex in the last 3 months. More than half of the respondents (58.14%, 1224/2105) reported HIV testing-related social media use. Additionally, HIV testing-related social media use, especially on multifunctional platforms such as WeChat, was found to be associated with recent HIV testing (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.32, 95% CI 1.66-3.24). Contributing on social media was correlated with recent HIV testing (aOR 2.10, 95% CI 1.40-3.16), but neither observing (aOR 0.66, 95% CI 0.38-1.15) nor endorsing (aOR 1.29, 95% CI 0.88-1.90) were correlated.ConclusionsOur data suggest that social media use, particularly on multifunctional platforms such as WeChat and with contributing behaviors, is correlated with HIV testing among MSM in China. Campaigns that promote active participant contribution on social media beyond passive observation and endorsement of promotional materials are needed. This study has implications for the design and implementation of social media interventions to promote HIV testing.

Dataset Information

Testing the hypothesis that treatment can eliminate HIV: a nationwide, population-based study of the Danish HIV epidemic in men who have sex with men.

Publications

Testing the hypothesis that treatment can eliminate HIV: a nationwide, population-based study of the Danish HIV epidemic in men who have sex with men.

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