Dataset Information

Structure in the variability of the basic reproductive number (R₀) for Zika epidemics in the Pacific islands.

ABSTRACT: Before the outbreak that reached the Americas in 2015, Zika virus (ZIKV) circulated in Asia and the Pacific: these past epidemics can be highly informative on the key parameters driving virus transmission, such as the basic reproduction number (R0). We compare two compartmental models with different mosquito representations, using surveillance and seroprevalence data for several ZIKV outbreaks in Pacific islands (Yap, Micronesia 2007, Tahiti and Moorea, French Polynesia 2013-2014, New Caledonia 2014). Models are estimated in a stochastic framework with recent Bayesian techniques. R0 for the Pacific ZIKV epidemics is estimated between 1.5 and 4.1, the smallest islands displaying higher and more variable values. This relatively low range of R0 suggests that intervention strategies developed for other flaviviruses should enable as, if not more effective control of ZIKV. Our study also highlights the importance of seroprevalence data for precise quantitative analysis of pathogen propagation, to design prevention and control strategies.

SUBMITTER: Champagne C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5262383 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Structure in the variability of the basic reproductive number (<i>R</i><sub>0</sub>) for Zika epidemics in the Pacific islands.

Champagne Clara C Salthouse David Georges DG Paul Richard R Cao-Lormeau Van-Mai VM Roche Benjamin B Cazelles Bernard B

eLife 20161129

Before the outbreak that reached the Americas in 2015, Zika virus (ZIKV) circulated in Asia and the Pacific: these past epidemics can be highly informative on the key parameters driving virus transmission, such as the basic reproduction number (R0). We compare two compartmental models with different mosquito representations, using surveillance and seroprevalence data for several ZIKV outbreaks in Pacific islands (Yap, Micronesia 2007, Tahiti and Moorea, French Polynesia 2013-2014, New Caledonia ...[more]

PMID: 27897973

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Project description:BACKGROUND: Dengue, an infectious tropical disease, has recently emerged as one of the most important mosquito-borne viral diseases in the world. We perform a retrospective analysis of the 2011 dengue fever epidemic in Pakistan in order to assess the transmissibility of the disease. We obtain estimates of the basic reproduction number R 0 from epidemic data using different methodologies applied to different epidemic models in order to evaluate the robustness of our estimate. RESULTS: We first estimate model parameters by fitting a deterministic ODE vector-host model for the transmission dynamics of single-strain dengue to the epidemic data, using both a basic ordinary least squares (OLS) as well as a generalized least squares (GLS) scheme. Moreover, we perform the same analysis for a direct-transmission ODE model, thereby allowing us to compare our results across different models. In addition, we formulate a direct-transmission stochastic model for the transmission dynamics of dengue and obtain parameter estimates for the stochastic model using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. In each of the cases we have considered, the estimate for the basic reproduction number R 0 is initially greater than unity leading to an epidemic outbreak. However, control measures implemented several weeks after the initial outbreak successfully reduce R 0 to less than unity, thus resulting in disease elimination. Furthermore, it is observed that there is strong agreement in our estimates for the pre-control value of R 0, both across different methodologies as well across different models. However, there are also significant differences between our estimates for the post-control value of the basic reproduction number across the two different models. CONCLUSION: In conclusion, we have obtained robust estimates for the value of the basic reproduction number R 0 associated with the 2011 dengue fever epidemic before the implementation of public health control measures. Furthermore, we have shown that there is close agreement between our estimates for the post-control value of R 0 across the different methodologies. Nevertheless, there are also significant differences between the estimates for the post-control value of R 0 across the two different models.

Dataset Information

Structure in the variability of the basic reproductive number (R₀) for Zika epidemics in the Pacific islands.

Publications

Structure in the variability of the basic reproductive number (<i>R</i><sub>0</sub>) for Zika epidemics in the Pacific islands.

Similar Datasets

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Dataset Information

Structure in the variability of the basic reproductive number (R0) for Zika epidemics in the Pacific islands.

Publications

Structure in the variability of the basic reproductive number (<i>R</i><sub>0</sub>) for Zika epidemics in the Pacific islands.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets

Structure in the variability of the basic reproductive number (R₀) for Zika epidemics in the Pacific islands.