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How will induced seismicity in Oklahoma respond to decreased saltwater injection rates?

ABSTRACT: In response to the marked number of injection-induced earthquakes in north-central Oklahoma, regulators recently called for a 40% reduction in the volume of saltwater being injected in the seismically active areas. We present a calibrated statistical model that predicts that widely felt M ? 3 earthquakes in the affected areas, as well as the probability of potentially damaging larger events, should significantly decrease by the end of 2016 and approach historic levels within a few years. Aftershock sequences associated with relatively large magnitude earthquakes that occurred in the Fairview, Cherokee, and Pawnee areas in north-central Oklahoma in late 2015 and 2016 will delay the rate of seismicity decrease in those areas.

SUBMITTER: Langenbruch C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5262442 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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How will induced seismicity in Oklahoma respond to decreased saltwater injection rates?

Langenbruch Cornelius C Zoback Mark D MD

Science advances 20161130 11

In response to the marked number of injection-induced earthquakes in north-central Oklahoma, regulators recently called for a 40% reduction in the volume of saltwater being injected in the seismically active areas. We present a calibrated statistical model that predicts that widely felt <i>M</i> ≥ 3 earthquakes in the affected areas, as well as the probability of potentially damaging larger events, should significantly decrease by the end of 2016 and approach historic levels within a few years. ...[more]

PMID: 28138533

Similar Datasets

Response to Comment on "How will induced seismicity in Oklahoma respond to decreased saltwater injection rates?"

Project description:Goebel et al. question our forecasted response of induced seismicity to reduction of saltwater injection rates in north-central Oklahoma and raise the concern that "the probability of future damaging earthquakes may be underestimated." We compare our prediction to earthquake data recorded in the 8 months after publication. Observed seismicity rates and magnitudes agree with the forecast of our model. Our use of a probabilistic model accounts for uncertainties and observed M ≥ 4.5 to date confirm the conservative nature of our prediction. The "realistic parameter range" suggested by Goebel et al. is based on a misunderstanding of our statistical model and disagrees with the long-term decay of seismicity in the region.

| S-EPMC5555253 | biostudies-other

Comment on "How will induced seismicity in Oklahoma respond to decreased saltwater injection rates?" by C. Langenbruch and M. D. Zoback.

Project description:The state of Oklahoma has experienced an unprecedented increase in earthquake activity since 2009, likely driven by large-scale wastewater injection operations. Statewide injection rates peaked in early 2015 and steadily decreased thereafter, approximately coinciding with collapsing oil prices and regulatory action. If seismic activity is primarily driven by fluid injection, a noticeable seismogenic response to the decrease in injection rates is expected. Langenbruch and Zoback suggest that "the probability of potentially damaging larger events, should significantly decrease by the end of 2016 and approach historic levels within a few years." We agree that the rate of small earthquakes has decreased toward the second half of 2016. However, their specific predictions about seismic hazard require reexamination. We test the influence of the model parameters of Langenbruch and Zoback based on fits to observed seismicity distributions. The results suggest that a range of realistic aftershock decay rates and b values can lead to an increase in moderate earthquake probabilities from 37 to 80% in 2017 without any further alteration to the model. In addition, the observation that all four M ≥ 5 earthquakes to date occurred when injection rates were below the triggering threshold of Langenbruch and Zoback challenges the applicability of the model for the most societally significant events.

| S-EPMC5550223 | biostudies-other

Forecasting induced seismicity in Oklahoma using machine learning methods.

Project description:Oklahoma earthquakes in the past decade have been mostly associated with wastewater injection. Here we use a machine learning technique-the Random Forest to forecast induced seismicity rate in Oklahoma based on injection-related parameters. We split the data into training (2011.01-2015.05) and test (2015.06-2020.12) periods. The model forecasts seismicity rate during the test period based on input features, including operational parameters (injection rate and pressure), geological information (depth to basement), and modeled pore pressure and poroelastic stress. The results show overall good match with observed seismicity rate (adjusted [Formula: see text] of 0.75). The model shows that pore pressure rate and poroelastic stressing rates are the two most important features in forecasting. The absolute values of pore pressure and poroelastic stress, and the injection rate itself, are less important than the stressing rates. These findings further emphasize that temporal changes of stressing rates would lead to significant changes in seismicity rates.

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Pore-pressure diffusion, enhanced by poroelastic stresses, controls induced seismicity in Oklahoma.

Project description:Induced seismicity linked to geothermal resource exploitation, hydraulic fracturing, and wastewater disposal is evolving into a global issue because of the increasing energy demand. Moderate to large induced earthquakes, causing widespread hazards, are often related to fluid injection into deep permeable formations that are hydraulically connected to the underlying crystalline basement. Using injection data combined with a physics-based linear poroelastic model and rate-and-state friction law, we compute the changes in crustal stress and seismicity rate in Oklahoma. This model can be used to assess earthquake potential on specific fault segments. The regional magnitude-time distribution of the observed magnitude (M) 3+ earthquakes during 2008-2017 is reproducible and is the same for the 2 optimal, conjugate fault orientations suggested for Oklahoma. At the regional scale, the timing of predicted seismicity rate, as opposed to its pattern and amplitude, is insensitive to hydrogeological and nucleation parameters in Oklahoma. Poroelastic stress changes alone have a small effect on the seismic hazard. However, their addition to pore-pressure changes can increase the seismicity rate by 6-fold and 2-fold for central and western Oklahoma, respectively. The injection-rate reduction in 2016 mitigates the exceedance probability of M5.0 by 22% in western Oklahoma, while that of central Oklahoma remains unchanged. A hypothetical injection shut-in in April 2017 causes the earthquake probability to approach its background level by ∼2025. We conclude that stress perturbation on prestressed faults due to pore-pressure diffusion, enhanced by poroelastic effects, is the primary driver of the induced earthquakes in Oklahoma.

| S-EPMC6697790 | biostudies-literature

The surge of earthquakes in Central Oklahoma has features of reservoir-induced seismicity.

Project description:The recent surge of seismicity in Oklahoma and Kansas is related to fluid disposal. Evidences suggest that critical parameters are the injection volume as well as injection depth but dominant physical processes and a corresponding model to describe the physics are still not clear. We analyse the spatio-temporal distribution of induced earthquakes in the basement and find visible signatures of pore pressure diffusion and poroelastic coupling, features which strongly resemble seismicity induced by the filling of artificial lakes, so-called reservoir-induced seismicity. We developed a first-principle model of underground reservoir-induced seismicity. The physics of the model are based upon the combined mechanisms of fluid mass added to the pore-space of the injection layer and acting as a normal stress on the basement surface, pore-fluid pressure diffusion in the basement as well as poroelastic coupling contributing to the pore-fluid pressure and stress. Furthermore, we demonstrate that underground reservoir-induced seismicity occurs preferably in normal faulting and strike-slip settings, the latter being prevalent in Oklahoma. Our model explains observed injection volume and depth dependence of the seismicity and should be considered as a basis for future hazard prediction and prevention as well as for planning possible disposal sites.

| S-EPMC6068131 | biostudies-literature

Energy of injection-induced seismicity predicted from in-situ experiments.

Project description:The ability to predict the magnitude of an earthquake caused by deep fluid injections is an important factor for assessing the safety of the reservoir storage and the seismic hazard. Here, we propose a new approach to evaluate the seismic energy released during fluid injection by integrating injection parameters, induced aseismic deformation, and the distance of earthquake sources from injection. We use data from ten injection experiments performed at a decameter scale into fault zones in limestone and shale formations. We observe that the seismic energy and the hydraulic energy similarly depend on the injected fluid volume (V), as they both scale as V3/2. They show, however, a large discrepancy, partly related to a large aseismic deformation. Therefore, to accurately predict the released seismic energy, aseismic deformation should be considered in the budget through the residual deformation measured at the injection. Alternatively, the minimal hypocentral distance from injection points and the critical fluid pressure for fault reactivation can be used for a better prediction of the seismic moment in the total compilation of earthquakes observed during these experiments. Complementary to the prediction based only on the injected fluid volume, our approach opens the possibility of using alternative monitoring parameters to improve traffic-light protocols for induced earthquakes and the regulation of operational injection activities.

| S-EPMC6428893 | biostudies-literature

Stress transfer outpaces injection-induced aseismic slip and triggers seismicity.

Project description:As concerns rise over damaging earthquakes related to industrial activities such as hydraulic fracturing, geothermal energy extraction and wastewater disposal, it is essential to understand how subsurface fluid injection triggers seismicity even in distant regions where pore pressure diffusion cannot reach. Previous studies suggested long-range poroelastic stressing and aseismic slip as potential triggering mechanisms. In this study, we show that significant stress transfer far ahead of injection-induced aseismic slip can travel at much higher speeds and is a viable mechanism for distant earthquake triggering. It could also explain seismicity migration that is much faster than aseismic slip front propagation. We demonstrate the application of these concepts with seismicity triggered by hydraulic fracturing operations in Weiyuan shale gas field, China. The speed of stress transfer is dependent on the background stress level and injection rate, and can be almost an order of magnitude higher than that of the aseismic slip front.

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Stochastic modeling of injection induced seismicity based on the continuous time random walk model.

Project description:The spatiotemporal evolution of earthquakes induced by fluid injections into the subsurface can be erratic owing to the complexity of the physical process. To effectively mitigate the associated hazard and to draft appropriate regulatory strategies, a detailed understanding of how induced seismicity may evolve is needed. In this work, we build on the well-established continuous-time random walk (CTRW) theory to develop a purely stochastic framework that can delineate the essential characteristics of this process. We use data from the 2003 and 2012 hydraulic stimulations in the Cooper Basin geothermal field that induced thousands of microearthquakes to test and demonstrate the applicability of the model. Induced seismicity in the Cooper Basin shows all the characteristics of subdiffusion, as indicated by the fractional order power-law growth of the mean square displacement with time and broad waiting-time distributions with algebraic tails. We further use an appropriate master equation and the time-fractional diffusion equation to map the spatiotemporal evolution of seismicity. The results show good agreement between the model and the data regarding the peak earthquake concentration close to the two injection wells and the stretched exponential relaxation of seismicity with distance, suggesting that the CTRW model can be efficiently incorporated into induced seismicity forecasting.

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Constraining maximum event magnitude during injection-triggered seismicity.

Project description:Understanding mechanisms controlling fluid injection-triggered seismicity is key in defining strategies to ameliorate it. Recent triggered events (e.g. Pohang, Mw 5.5) have exceeded predictions of average energy release by a factor of >1000x, necessitating robust methodologies to both define critical antecedent conditions and to thereby constrain anticipated event size. We define maximum event magnitudes resulting from triggering as a function of pre-existing critical stresses and fluid injection volume. Fluid injection experiments on prestressed laboratory faults confirm these estimates of triggered moment magnitudes for varied boundary conditions and injection rates. In addition, observed ratios of shear slip to dilation rates on individual faults signal triggering and may serve as a measurable proxy for impending rupture. This new framework provides a robust method of constraining maximum event size for preloaded faults and unifies prior laboratory and field observations that span sixteen decades in injection volume and four decades in length scale.

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Inversion of inherited thrusts by wastewater injection induced seismicity at the Val d'Agri oilfield (Italy).

Project description:Since 2006 wastewater has been injected below the Val d'Agri Quaternary basin, the largest on-land oilfield in Europe, inducing micro-seismicity in the proximity of a high-rate injection well. In this study, we have the rare opportunity to revise a massive set of 2D/3D seismic and deep borehole data in order to investigate the relationship between the active faults that bound the basin and the induced earthquakes. Below the injection site we identify a Pliocene thrusts and back-thrusts system inherited by the Apennines compression, with no relation with faults bounding the basin. The induced seismicity is mostly confined within the injection reservoir, and aligns coherently with a NE-dipping back-thrust favorably oriented within the current extensional stress field. Earthquakes spread upwards from the back-thrust deep portion activating a 2.5-km wide patch. Focal mechanisms show a predominant extensional kinematic testifying to an on-going inversion of the back-thrust, while a minor strike-slip compound suggests a control exerted by a high angle inherited transverse fault developed within the compressional system, possibly at the intersection between the two fault sets. We stress that where wastewater injection is active, understanding the complex interaction between injection-linked seismicity and pre-existing faults is a strong requisite for safe oilfield exploitation.

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