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A deforestation-induced tipping point for the South American monsoon system.

ABSTRACT: The Amazon rainforest has been proposed as a tipping element of the earth system, with the possibility of a dieback of the entire ecosystem due to deforestation only of parts of the rainforest. Possible physical mechanisms behind such a transition are still subject to ongoing debates. Here, we use a specifically designed model to analyse the nonlinear couplings between the Amazon rainforest and the atmospheric moisture transport from the Atlantic to the South American continent. These couplings are associated with a westward cascade of precipitation and evapotranspiration across the Amazon. We investigate impacts of deforestation on the South American monsoonal circulation with particular focus on a previously neglected positive feedback related to condensational latent heating over the rainforest, which strongly enhances atmospheric moisture inflow from the Atlantic. Our results indicate the existence of a tipping point. In our model setup, crossing the tipping point causes precipitation reductions of up to 40% in non-deforested parts of the western Amazon and regions further downstream. The responsible mechanism is the breakdown of the aforementioned feedback, which occurs when deforestation reduces transpiration to a point where the available atmospheric moisture does not suffice anymore to release the latent heat needed to maintain the feedback.

SUBMITTER: Boers N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5264177 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A deforestation-induced tipping point for the South American monsoon system.

Boers Niklas N Marwan Norbert N Barbosa Henrique M J HM Kurths Jürgen J

Scientific reports 20170125

The Amazon rainforest has been proposed as a tipping element of the earth system, with the possibility of a dieback of the entire ecosystem due to deforestation only of parts of the rainforest. Possible physical mechanisms behind such a transition are still subject to ongoing debates. Here, we use a specifically designed model to analyse the nonlinear couplings between the Amazon rainforest and the atmospheric moisture transport from the Atlantic to the South American continent. These couplings ...[more]

PMID: 28120928

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Project description:Determining mechanism-based biomarkers that distinguish adaptive and adverse cellular processes is critical to understanding the health effects of environmental exposures. Shifting from in vivo, low-throughput toxicity studies to high-throughput screening (HTS) paradigms and risk assessment based on in vitro and in silico testing requires utilizing toxicity pathway information to distinguish adverse outcomes from recoverable adaptive events. Little work has focused on oxidative stresses in human airway for the purposes of predicting adverse responses. We hypothesize that early gene expression-mediated molecular changes could be used to delineate adaptive and adverse responses to environmentally-based perturbations. Here, we examined cellular responses of the tracheobronchial airway to zinc (Zn) exposure, a model oxidant. Airway derived BEAS-2B cells exposed to 2–10 µM Zn2+ elicited concentration- and time-dependent cytotoxicity. Normal, adaptive, and cytotoxic Zn2+ exposure conditions were determined with traditional apical endpoints, and differences in global gene expression around the tipping point of the responses were used to delineate underlying molecular mechanisms. Bioinformatic analyses of differentially expressed genes indicate early enrichment of stress signaling pathways, including those mediated by the transcription factors p53 and NRF2. After 4 h, 154 genes were differentially expressed (p <0.01) between the adaptive and cytotoxic Zn2+ concentrations. Nearly 40% of the biomarker genes were related to the p53 signaling pathway with 30 genes identified as likely direct targets using a database of p53 ChIP-seq studies. Despite similar p53 activation profiles, these data revealed widespread dampening of p53 and NRF2-related genes as early as 4 h after exposure at higher, unrecoverable Zn2+ exposures. Thus, in our model early increased activation of stress response pathways indicated a recoverable adaptive event. Overall, this study highlights the importance of characterizing molecular mechanisms around the tipping point of adverse responses to better inform HTS paradigms.

Dataset Information

A deforestation-induced tipping point for the South American monsoon system.

Publications

A deforestation-induced tipping point for the South American monsoon system.

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