Dataset Information

Predicting Ebola Severity: A Clinical Prioritization Score for Ebola Virus Disease.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Despite the notoriety of Ebola virus disease (EVD) as one of the world's most deadly infections, EVD has a wide range of outcomes, where asymptomatic infection may be almost as common as fatality. With increasingly sensitive EVD diagnosis, there is a need for more accurate prognostic tools that objectively stratify clinical severity to better allocate limited resources and identify those most in need of intensive treatment.

Methods/principal findings

This retrospective cohort study analyses the clinical characteristics of 158 EVD(+) patients at the GOAL-Mathaska Ebola Treatment Centre, Sierra Leone. The prognostic potential of each characteristic was assessed and incorporated into a statistically weighted disease score. The mortality rate among EVD(+) patients was 60.8% and highest in those aged <5 or >25 years (p<0.05). Death was significantly associated with malaria co-infection (OR = 2.5, p = 0.01). However, this observation was abrogated after adjustment to Ebola viral load (p = 0.1), potentially indicating a pathologic synergy between the infections. Similarly, referral-time interacted with viral load, and adjustment revealed referral-time as a significant determinant of mortality, thus quantifying the benefits of early reporting as a 12% mortality risk reduction per day (p = 0.012). Disorientation was the strongest unadjusted predictor of death (OR = 13.1, p = 0.014) followed by hiccups, diarrhoea, conjunctivitis, dyspnoea and myalgia. Including these characteristics in multivariate prognostic scores, we obtained a 91% and 97% ability to discriminate death at or after triage respectively (area under ROC curve).

Conclusions/significance

This study proposes highly predictive and easy-to-use prognostic tools, which stratify the risk of EVD mortality at or after EVD triage.

SUBMITTER: Hartley MA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5289426 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Predicting Ebola Severity: A Clinical Prioritization Score for Ebola Virus Disease.

Hartley Mary-Anne MA Young Alyssa A Tran Anh-Minh AM Okoni-Williams Harry Henry HH Suma Mohamed M Mancuso Brooke B Al-Dikhari Ahmed A Faouzi Mohamed M

PLoS neglected tropical diseases 20170202 2

<h4>Background</h4>Despite the notoriety of Ebola virus disease (EVD) as one of the world's most deadly infections, EVD has a wide range of outcomes, where asymptomatic infection may be almost as common as fatality. With increasingly sensitive EVD diagnosis, there is a need for more accurate prognostic tools that objectively stratify clinical severity to better allocate limited resources and identify those most in need of intensive treatment.<h4>Methods/principal findings</h4>This retrospective ...[more]

PMID: 28151955

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Project description:BACKGROUND:The non-specific symptoms of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) pose a major problem to triage and isolation efforts at Ebola Treatment Centres (ETCs). Under the current triage protocol, half the patients allocated to high-risk "probable" wards were EVD(-): a misclassification speculated to predispose nosocomial EVD infection. A better understanding of the statistical relevance of individual triage symptoms is essential in resource-poor settings where rapid, laboratory-confirmed diagnostics are often unavailable. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:This retrospective cohort study analyses the clinical characteristics of 566 patients admitted to the GOAL-Mathaska ETC in Sierra Leone. The diagnostic potential of each characteristic was assessed by multivariate analysis and incorporated into a statistically weighted predictive score, designed to detect EVD as well as discriminate malaria. Of the 566 patients, 28% were EVD(+) and 35% were malaria(+). Malaria was 2-fold more common in EVD(-) patients (p<0.05), and thus an important differential diagnosis. Univariate analyses comparing EVD(+) vs. EVD(-) and EVD(+)/malaria(-) vs. EVD(-)/malaria(+) cohorts revealed 7 characteristics with the highest odds for EVD infection, namely: reported sick-contact, conjunctivitis, diarrhoea, referral-time of 4-9 days, pyrexia, dysphagia and haemorrhage. Oppositely, myalgia was more predictive of EVD(-) or EVD(-)/malaria(+). Including these 8 characteristics in a triage score, we obtained an 89% ability to discriminate EVD(+) from either EVD(-) or EVD(-)/malaria(+). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:This study proposes a highly predictive and easy-to-use triage tool, which stratifies the risk of EVD infection with 89% discriminative power for both EVD(-) and EVD(-)/malaria(+) differential diagnoses. Improved triage could preserve resources by identifying those in need of more specific differential diagnostics as well as bolster infection prevention/control measures by better compartmentalizing the risk of nosocomial infection.

Project description:Ebola virus (EBV) disease (EVD) is a highly virulent systemic disease characterized by an aggressive systemic inflammatory response and impaired vascular and coagulation systems, often leading to uncontrolled hemorrhaging and death. In this study, the proteomes of 38 sequential plasma samples from 12 confirmed EVD patients were analyzed. Of these 12 cases, 9 patients received treatment with interferon beta 1a (IFN-β-1a), 8 survived EVD, and 4 died; 2 of these 4 fatalities had received IFN-β-1a. Our analytical strategy combined three platforms targeting different plasma subproteomes: a liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS)-based analysis of the classical plasma proteome, a protocol that combines the depletion of abundant plasma proteins and LC-MS to detect less abundant plasma proteins, and an antibody-based cytokine/chemokine multiplex assay. These complementary platforms provided comprehensive data on 1,000 host and viral proteins. Examination of the early plasma proteomes revealed protein signatures that differentiated between fatalities and survivors. Moreover, IFN-β-1a treatment was associated with a distinct protein signature. Next, we examined those proteins whose abundances reflected viral load measurements and the disease course: resolution or progression. Our data identified a prognostic 4-protein biomarker panel (histone H1-5, moesin, kininogen 1, and ribosomal protein L35 [RPL35]) that predicted EVD outcomes more accurately than the onset viral load. IMPORTANCE As evidenced by the 2013-2016 outbreak in West Africa, Ebola virus (EBV) disease (EVD) poses a major global health threat. In this study, we characterized the plasma proteomes of 12 individuals infected with EBV, using two different LC-MS-based proteomics platforms and an antibody-based multiplexed cytokine/chemokine assay. Clear differences were observed in the host proteome between individuals who survived and those who died, at both early and late stages of the disease. From our analysis, we derived a 4-protein prognostic biomarker panel that may help direct care. Given the ease of implementation, a panel of these 4 proteins or subsets thereof has the potential to be widely applied in an emergency setting in resource-limited regions.

Dataset Information

Predicting Ebola Severity: A Clinical Prioritization Score for Ebola Virus Disease.

Background

Methods/principal findings

Conclusions/significance

Publications

Predicting Ebola Severity: A Clinical Prioritization Score for Ebola Virus Disease.

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