Dataset Information

Predicted Spatial Spread of Canine Rabies in Australia.

ABSTRACT: Modelling disease dynamics is most useful when data are limited. We present a spatial transmission model for the spread of canine rabies in the currently rabies-free wild dog population of Australia. The introduction of a sub-clinically infected dog from Indonesia is a distinct possibility, as is the spillover infection of wild dogs. Ranges for parameters were estimated from the literature and expert opinion, or set to span an order of magnitude. Rabies was judged to have spread spatially if a new infectious case appeared 120 km from the index case. We found 21% of initial value settings resulted in canine rabies spreading 120km, and on doing so at a median speed of 67 km/year. Parameters governing dog movements and behaviour, around which there is a paucity of knowledge, explained most of the variance in model outcomes. Dog density, especially when interactions with other parameters were included, explained some of the variance in whether rabies spread 120km, but dog demography (mean lifespan and mean replacement period) had minimal impact. These results provide a clear research direction if Australia is to improve its preparedness for rabies.

SUBMITTER: Johnstone-Robertson SP

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5289603 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Predicted Spatial Spread of Canine Rabies in Australia.

Johnstone-Robertson Simon P SP Fleming Peter J S PJ Ward Michael P MP Davis Stephen A SA

PLoS neglected tropical diseases 20170123 1

Modelling disease dynamics is most useful when data are limited. We present a spatial transmission model for the spread of canine rabies in the currently rabies-free wild dog population of Australia. The introduction of a sub-clinically infected dog from Indonesia is a distinct possibility, as is the spillover infection of wild dogs. Ranges for parameters were estimated from the literature and expert opinion, or set to span an order of magnitude. Rabies was judged to have spread spatially if a n ...[more]

PMID: 28114327

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Project description:Animal movement influences the spatial spread of directly transmitted wildlife disease through host-host contact structure. Wildlife disease hosts vary in home range-associated foraging and social behaviours, which may increase the spread and intensity of disease outbreaks. The consequences of variation in host home range movement and space use on wildlife disease dynamics are poorly understood, but could help to predict disease spread and determine more effective disease management strategies. We developed a spatially explicit individual-based model to examine the effect of spatiotemporal variation in host home range size on the spatial spread rate, persistence and incidence of rabies virus (RABV) in raccoons (Procyon lotor). We tested the hypothesis that variation in home range size increases RABV spread and decreases vaccination effectiveness in host populations following pathogen invasion into a vaccination zone. We simulated raccoon demography and RABV dynamics across a range of magnitudes and variances in weekly home range size for raccoons. We examined how variable home range size influenced the relative effectiveness of three components of oral rabies vaccination (ORV) programmes targeting raccoons-timing and frequency of bait delivery, width of the ORV zone and proportion of hosts immunized. Variability in weekly home range size increased RABV spread rates by 1.2-fold to 5.2-fold compared to simulations that assumed a fixed home range size. More variable host home range sizes decreased relative vaccination effectiveness by 71% compared to less variable host home range sizes under conventional vaccination conditions. We found that vaccination timing was more influential for vaccination effectiveness than vaccination frequency or vaccination zone width. Our results suggest that variation in wildlife home range movement behaviour increases the spatial spread and incidence of RABV. Our vaccination results underscore the importance of prioritizing individual-level space use and movement data collection to understand wildlife disease dynamics and plan their effective control and elimination.

Project description:BackgroundPrevention and control of wildlife disease invasions relies on the ability to predict spatio-temporal dynamics and understand the role of factors driving spread rates, such as seasonality and transmission distance. Passive disease surveillance (i.e., case reports by public) is a common method of monitoring emergence of wildlife diseases, but can be challenging to interpret due to spatial biases and limitations in data quantity and quality.Methodology/principal findingsWe obtained passive rabies surveillance data from dead striped skunks (Mephitis mephitis) in an epizootic in northern Colorado, USA. We developed a dynamic patch-occupancy model which predicts spatio-temporal spreading while accounting for heterogeneous sampling. We estimated the distance travelled per transmission event, direction of invasion, rate of spatial spread, and effects of infection density and season. We also estimated mean transmission distance and rates of spatial spread using a phylogeographic approach on a subsample of viral sequences from the same epizootic. Both the occupancy and phylogeographic approaches predicted similar rates of spatio-temporal spread. Estimated mean transmission distances were 2.3 km (95% Highest Posterior Density (HPD95): 0.02, 11.9; phylogeographic) and 3.9 km (95% credible intervals (CI95): 1.4, 11.3; occupancy). Estimated rates of spatial spread in km/year were: 29.8 (HPD95: 20.8, 39.8; phylogeographic, branch velocity, homogenous model), 22.6 (HPD95: 15.3, 29.7; phylogeographic, diffusion rate, homogenous model) and 21.1 (CI95: 16.7, 25.5; occupancy). Initial colonization probability was twice as high in spring relative to fall.Conclusions/significanceSkunk-to-skunk transmission was primarily local (< 4 km) suggesting that if interventions were needed, they could be applied at the wave front. Slower viral invasions of skunk rabies in western USA compared to a similar epizootic in raccoons in the eastern USA implies host species or landscape factors underlie the dynamics of rabies invasions. Our framework provides a straightforward method for estimating rates of spatial spread of wildlife diseases.

Project description:BACKGROUND:The incidence of canine rabies cases in El Salvador has decreased in the last decade since the establishment of intense control programs, such as massive vaccination campaigns implemented by the Ministry of Health. Socioeconomic crises in recent years have limited the access to certain areas across the country and have impacted surveillance and prevention campaigns, which places the country at risk for a resurgence of canine rabies.We aimedto describe the spatiotemporal patterns of canine rabies and its association with critical social factors in El Salvador from 2005 to 2014. METHOD:We included 459 cases of canine rabies. Several socioeconomic, demographic, and surveillance variables were modeled using a Poisson regression to evaluate their associations with the incidence of canine rabies. Spatial scan statistics were adjusted or unadjusted with covariates and applied to identify statistically significant clusters of canine rabies. Finally, a canine rabies risk map was created. RESULTS:A positive association and higher risk of canine rabies were found for low poverty zones, where it is suspected that urban slums contribute to ongoing rabies transmission (RR = 7.74). Violence had a negative association with rabies (RR = 0.663), which is likely due to reporting bias. Significant clusters were identified in all five epidemiological regions, and the Eastern region had the highest risk (RR = 50.62). The influences of the selected variables in cluster detection were confirmed by the adjusted analysis. Higher-risk townships were distributed from the Western to the Eastern regions of the country. CONCLUSION:Social factors are determinants of rabies in El Salvador and play a major role in national spatial patterns of the disease. There are high-risk areas for canine rabies across the country, and there were two persistent rabies foci during the study period. Examining the role of social factors can provide better insight into rabies in vulnerable countries, and socioeconomic factors can be key elements in developing better policies and interventions for rabies control.

Dataset Information

Predicted Spatial Spread of Canine Rabies in Australia.

Publications

Predicted Spatial Spread of Canine Rabies in Australia.

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