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ABSTRACT: Purpose
Because anthracofibrosis (AF) is associated with tuberculosis (TB), detection of AF is clinically relevant in Korea, a TB endemic region. We thus sought to develop and validate a predictive model for AF using clinical radiographic data.Materials and methods
Between January 1, 2008 and March 31, 2014, 3849 adult patients who underwent bronchoscopies were retrospectively included from an observational registry. We dichotomized patients based on the presence (n=167) or absence (n=242) of AF. After analyzing their clinico-radiographic characteristics, a logistic prediction model was developed. An area under the curve (AUC) was drawn using the weighted score in logistic regression model. To evaluate the degree of overfitting of the predictive model, a 5-fold cross-validation procedure was performed.Results
In multivariate logistic regression, clinical findings such as age >70 years, female gender, active TB, and computed tomography findings including atelectasis, stenosis, bronchial wall thickening, enlarged and calcified lymph nodes were significant diagnostic predictors for AF. The weighed score had an AUC of 0.939 [95% confidence interval (CI)=0.911-0.960], similar to the AUC obtained from internal validation (AUC=0.926, 95% CI=0.896-0.949).Conclusion
The prediction model may be helpful for predicting AF based only on clinical and radiographic findings. However, further external validation is necessary.
SUBMITTER: Park TY
PROVIDER: S-EPMC5290015 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Mar
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Park Tae Yun TY Heo Eun Young EY Chung Hee Soon HS Jin Kwang Nam KN Kim Deog Kyeom DK
Yonsei medical journal 20170301 2
<h4>Purpose</h4>Because anthracofibrosis (AF) is associated with tuberculosis (TB), detection of AF is clinically relevant in Korea, a TB endemic region. We thus sought to develop and validate a predictive model for AF using clinical radiographic data.<h4>Materials and methods</h4>Between January 1, 2008 and March 31, 2014, 3849 adult patients who underwent bronchoscopies were retrospectively included from an observational registry. We dichotomized patients based on the presence (n=167) or absen ...[more]