Dataset Information

Bayesian Markov models consistently outperform PWMs at predicting motifs in nucleotide sequences.

ABSTRACT: Position weight matrices (PWMs) are the standard model for DNA and RNA regulatory motifs. In PWMs nucleotide probabilities are independent of nucleotides at other positions. Models that account for dependencies need many parameters and are prone to overfitting. We have developed a Bayesian approach for motif discovery using Markov models in which conditional probabilities of order k - 1 act as priors for those of order k This Bayesian Markov model (BaMM) training automatically adapts model complexity to the amount of available data. We also derive an EM algorithm for de-novo discovery of enriched motifs. For transcription factor binding, BaMMs achieve significantly (P ? ?= ?1/16) higher cross-validated partial AUC than PWMs in 97% of 446 ChIP-seq ENCODE datasets and improve performance by 36% on average. BaMMs also learn complex multipartite motifs, improving predictions of transcription start sites, polyadenylation sites, bacterial pause sites, and RNA binding sites by 26-101%. BaMMs never performed worse than PWMs. These robust improvements argue in favour of generally replacing PWMs by BaMMs.

SUBMITTER: Siebert M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5291271 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Bayesian Markov models consistently outperform PWMs at predicting motifs in nucleotide sequences.

Siebert Matthias M Söding Johannes J

Nucleic acids research 20160609 13

Position weight matrices (PWMs) are the standard model for DNA and RNA regulatory motifs. In PWMs nucleotide probabilities are independent of nucleotides at other positions. Models that account for dependencies need many parameters and are prone to overfitting. We have developed a Bayesian approach for motif discovery using Markov models in which conditional probabilities of order k - 1 act as priors for those of order k This Bayesian Markov model (BaMM) training automatically adapts model compl ...[more]

PMID: 27288444

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Project description:OBJECTIVES:Predictive models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have been limited by modest accuracy and lack of validation. Machine-learning algorithms offer a novel methodology, which may improve HCC risk prognostication among patients with cirrhosis. Our study's aim was to develop and compare predictive models for HCC development among cirrhotic patients, using conventional regression analysis and machine-learning algorithms. METHODS:We enrolled 442 patients with Child A or B cirrhosis at the University of Michigan between January 2004 and September 2006 (UM cohort) and prospectively followed them until HCC development, liver transplantation, death, or study termination. Regression analysis and machine-learning algorithms were used to construct predictive models for HCC development, which were tested on an independent validation cohort from the Hepatitis C Antiviral Long-term Treatment against Cirrhosis (HALT-C) Trial. Both models were also compared with the previously published HALT-C model. Discrimination was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, and diagnostic accuracy was assessed with net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement statistics. RESULTS:After a median follow-up of 3.5 years, 41 patients developed HCC. The UM regression model had a c-statistic of 0.61 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56-0.67), whereas the machine-learning algorithm had a c-statistic of 0.64 (95% CI 0.60-0.69) in the validation cohort. The HALT-C model had a c-statistic of 0.60 (95% CI 0.50-0.70) in the validation cohort and was outperformed by the machine-learning algorithm. The machine-learning algorithm had significantly better diagnostic accuracy as assessed by net reclassification improvement (P<0.001) and integrated discrimination improvement (P=0.04). CONCLUSIONS:Machine-learning algorithms improve the accuracy of risk stratifying patients with cirrhosis and can be used to accurately identify patients at high-risk for developing HCC.

Project description:BackgroundEukaryotic gene regulation is a complex process comprising the dynamic interaction of enhancers and promoters in order to activate gene expression. In recent years, research in regulatory genomics has contributed to a better understanding of the characteristics of promoter elements and for most sequenced model organism genomes there exist comprehensive and reliable promoter annotations. For enhancers, however, a reliable description of their characteristics and location has so far proven to be elusive. With the development of high-throughput methods such as ChIP-seq, large amounts of data about epigenetic conditions have become available, and many existing methods use the information on chromatin accessibility or histone modifications to train classifiers in order to segment the genome into functional groups such as enhancers and promoters. However, these methods often do not consider prior biological knowledge about enhancers such as their diverse lengths or molecular structure.ResultsWe developed enhancer HMM (eHMM), a supervised hidden Markov model designed to learn the molecular structure of promoters and enhancers. Both consist of a central stretch of accessible DNA flanked by nucleosomes with distinct histone modification patterns. We evaluated the performance of eHMM within and across cell types and developmental stages and found that eHMM successfully predicts enhancers with high precision and recall comparable to state-of-the-art methods, and consistently outperforms those in terms of accuracy and resolution.ConclusionseHMM predicts active enhancers based on data from chromatin accessibility assays and a minimal set of histone modification ChIP-seq experiments. In comparison to other 'black box' methods its parameters are easy to interpret. eHMM can be used as a stand-alone tool for enhancer prediction without the need for additional training or a tuning of parameters. The high spatial precision of enhancer predictions gives valuable targets for potential knockout experiments or downstream analyses such as motif search.

Dataset Information

Bayesian Markov models consistently outperform PWMs at predicting motifs in nucleotide sequences.

Publications

Bayesian Markov models consistently outperform PWMs at predicting motifs in nucleotide sequences.

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