Dataset Information

Using age-stratified incidence data to examine the transmission consequences of pertussis vaccination.

ABSTRACT: Pertussis is a highly infectious respiratory disease that has been on the rise in many countries worldwide over the past several years. The drivers of this increase in pertussis incidence remain hotly debated, with a central and long-standing hypothesis that questions the ability of vaccines to eliminate pertussis transmission rather than simply modulate the severity of disease. In this paper, we present age-structured case notification data from all provinces of Thailand between 1981 and 2014, a period during which vaccine uptake rose substantially, permitting an evaluation of the transmission impacts of vaccination. Our analyses demonstrate decreases in incidence across all ages with increased vaccine uptake - an observation that is at odds with pertussis case notification data in a number of other countries. To explore whether these observations are consistent with a rise in herd immunity and a reduction in bacterial transmission, we analyze an age-structured model that incorporates contrasting hypotheses concerning the immunological and transmission consequences of vaccines. Our results lead us to conclude that the most parsimonious explanation for the combined reduction in incidence and the shift to older age groups in the Thailand data is vaccine-induced herd immunity.

SUBMITTER: Blackwood JC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5292824 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Using age-stratified incidence data to examine the transmission consequences of pertussis vaccination.

Blackwood J C JC Cummings D A T DA Iamsirithaworn S S Rohani P P

Epidemics 20160319

Pertussis is a highly infectious respiratory disease that has been on the rise in many countries worldwide over the past several years. The drivers of this increase in pertussis incidence remain hotly debated, with a central and long-standing hypothesis that questions the ability of vaccines to eliminate pertussis transmission rather than simply modulate the severity of disease. In this paper, we present age-structured case notification data from all provinces of Thailand between 1981 and 2014, ...[more]

PMID: 27663785

Similar Datasets

Project description:Routine vaccination with pertussis vaccines has been successful in driving down pertussis mortality and morbidity globally. Despite high vaccination coverage, countries such as Australia, USA, and UK have experienced increase in pertussis activity over the last few decades. This may be due to local pockets of low vaccination coverage that result in persistence of pertussis in the population and occasionally lead to large outbreaks. The objective of this study was to characterize the association between pertussis vaccination coverage and sociodemographic factors and pertussis incidence at the school district level in King County, Washington, USA. We used monthly pertussis incidence data for all ages reported to the Public Health Seattle and King County between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2017 to obtain school district level pertussis incidence. We obtained immunization data from the Washington State Immunization Information System to estimate school-district level vaccination coverage as proportion of 19-35 month old children fully vaccinated with ≥4 doses of the Diphtheria-Tetanus-acellular-Pertussis (DTaP) vaccine in a school district. We used two methods to quantify the effects of vaccination coverage on pertussis incidence: an ecological vaccine model and an endemic-epidemic model. Even though the effect of vaccination is modeled differently in the two approaches, both models can be used to estimate the association between vaccination coverage and pertussis incidence. Using the ecological vaccine model, we estimated the vaccine effectiveness of 4 doses of Diphtheria-Tetanus-acellular-Pertussis vaccine to be 83% (95% credible interval: 63%, 95%). In the endemic-epidemic model, under-vaccination was statistically significantly associated with epidemic risk of pertussis (adjusted Relative Risk, aRR: 2.76; 95% confidence interval: 1.44, 16.6). Household size and median income were statistically significantly associated with endemic pertussis risk. The endemic-epidemic model suffers from ecological bias, whereas the ecological vaccine model provides less biased and more interpretable estimates of epidemiological parameters, such as DTaP vaccine effectiveness, for each school district.

Project description:While the central common feature of the neurodegenerative diseases (NDs) is the accumulation of misfolded proteins, they share other pathogenic mechanisms. However, we miss an explanation for the onset of the NDs. The mechanisms through which genetic mutations, present from conception are expressed only after several decades of life are unknown. We aim to find clues on the complexity of the disease onset trigger of the different NDs expressed in the number of steps of factors related to a disease. We collected brain autopsies on diseased patients with NDs, and found a dynamic increase of the ND multimorbidity with the advance of age. Together with the observation that the NDs accumulate multiple misfolded proteins, and the same misfolded proteins are involved in more than one ND, motivated us to propose a model for a genealogical tree of the NDs. To collect the dynamic data needed to build the tree, we used a Big-data approach that searched automatically epidemiological datasets for age-stratified incidence of NDs. Based on meta-analysis of over 400 datasets, we developed an algorithm that checks whether a ND follows a multistep model, finds the number of steps necessary for the onset of each ND, finds the number of common steps with other NDs and the number of specific steps of each ND, and builds with these findings a parsimony tree of the genealogy of the NDs. The tree discloses three types of NDs: the stem NDs with less than 3 steps; the trunk NDs with 5 to 6 steps; and the crown NDs with more than 7 steps. The tree provides a comprehensive understanding of the relationship across the different NDs, as well as a mathematical framework for dynamic adjustment of the genealogical tree of the NDs with the appearance of new epidemiological studies and the addition of new NDs to the model, thus setting the basis for the search for the identity and order of these steps. Understanding the complexity, or number of steps, of factors related to disease onset trigger is important prior deciding to study single factors for a multiple steps disease.

Project description:INTRODUCTION:Pertussis is an important public health problem worldwide, especially in infants. An increase in the incidence in many countries occurred after 2010, including Brazil. In 2013, dTpa vaccine was introduced in the Brazil national immunization schedule of pregnant women. The objective of this study was to evaluate the national trends in the incidence of pertussis in Brazil in children under 1 year old, and the impact of the introduction of dTpa vaccine during pregnancy. METHODS:The incidence of hospitalizations and non-hospitalized confirmed cases of pertussis in neonates (< 1 month age) and young infants (1 month-< 1 year age) were analyzed, comparing the incidence in pre maternal vaccination (2011-2013) with the post-vaccination (2015-2017). We used non-respiratory hospitalizations as comparison, during the same period. A database of the Brazilian Ministry of Health (DATASUS) was used to analyze cases from 2007 to 2017 and the subsets of 2011-2013 and 2015-2017, after Pertussis resurgence. The vaccination data was accessed through the link of the Information System of the National Immunization Program (pni.datasus.gov.br). RESULTS:Between 2007 and 2017, 17,818 children under one year of age were hospitalized due to pertussis in Brazil. In the pre maternal vaccination period 2011-2013, the mean annual incidence of non-hospitalized confirmed cases of pertussis in children under 1 month was 722.2 / 100,000 and in the period of 2015-2017 the average was 377.3 / 100,000, representing a decrease of 47.7% [IRR 0.52 (0.46-0.59)]. At those periods of time, the average incidence per year for children of one month-< 1 year aged was 64.9 / 100,000 (2011-2013) and 29.3 / 100,000 (2015-2017) [IRR 0.45 (CI 0.29-0.69)]. CONCLUSION:Vaccination of pregnant woman coincides with the reduction in the number of cases of pertussis in children under 1 month of age from 2015. Immunization of pregnant woman seems to have an important impact on the prevention of the disease in young infants who have not yet received their own pertussis vaccine.

Dataset Information

Using age-stratified incidence data to examine the transmission consequences of pertussis vaccination.

Publications

Using age-stratified incidence data to examine the transmission consequences of pertussis vaccination.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets