Dataset Information

Predictive Value of Cumulative Blood Pressure for All-Cause Mortality and Cardiovascular Events.

ABSTRACT: The predictive value of cumulative blood pressure (BP) on all-cause mortality and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (CCE) has hardly been studied. In this prospective cohort study including 52,385 participants from the Kailuan Group who attended three medical examinations and without CCE, the impact of cumulative systolic BP (cumSBP) and cumulative diastolic BP (cumDBP) on all-cause mortality and CCEs was investigated. For the study population, the mean (standard deviation) age was 48.82 (11.77) years of which 40,141 (76.6%) were male. The follow-up for all-cause mortality and CCEs was 3.96 (0.48) and 2.98 (0.41) years, respectively. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis showed that for every 10?mm?Hg·year increase in cumSBP and 5?mm?Hg·year increase in cumDBP, the hazard ratio for all-cause mortality were 1.013 (1.006, 1.021) and 1.012 (1.006, 1.018); for CCEs, 1.018 (1.010, 1.027) and 1.017 (1.010, 1.024); for stroke, 1.021 (1.011, 1.031) and 1.018 (1.010, 1.026); and for MI, 1.013 (0.996, 1.030) and 1.015 (1.000, 1.029). Using natural spline function analysis, cumSBP and cumDBP showed a J-curve relationship with CCEs; and a U-curve relationship with stroke (ischemic stroke and hemorrhagic stroke). Therefore, increases in cumSBP and cumDBP were predictive for all-cause mortality, CCEs, and stroke.

SUBMITTER: Wang YX

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5294637 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predictive Value of Cumulative Blood Pressure for All-Cause Mortality and Cardiovascular Events.

Wang Yan Xiu YX Song Lu L Xing Ai Jun AJ Gao Ming M Zhao Hai Yan HY Li Chun Hui CH Zhao Hua Ling HL Chen Shuo Hua SH Lu Cheng Zhi CZ Wu Shou Ling SL

Scientific reports 20170207

The predictive value of cumulative blood pressure (BP) on all-cause mortality and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (CCE) has hardly been studied. In this prospective cohort study including 52,385 participants from the Kailuan Group who attended three medical examinations and without CCE, the impact of cumulative systolic BP (cumSBP) and cumulative diastolic BP (cumDBP) on all-cause mortality and CCEs was investigated. For the study population, the mean (standard deviation) age was 48.82 ...[more]

PMID: 28167816

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Project description:Background: Both baseline blood pressure (BP) and cumulative BP have been used to estimate cardiovascular event (CVE) risk of higher BP, but which one is more reliable for recommendation to routine clinical practice is unclear. Methods: In this prospective study, conducted in the Kailuan community of Tanshan City, China, a total of 95,702 participants free of CVEs at baseline (2006-2007) were included and followed up until 2017. Time-weighted cumulative BP that expresses the extent of cumulative BP exposure is defined as the sum of the mean of two consecutive systolic or diastolic BP times the interval between the two determinations, then normalized by the total follow-up duration. Incident CVEs during 2006-2017 were confirmed by review of medical records. We performed a competing risk regression analysis to assess CVE risk of the different durations of higher BP exposure. ROC analysis was performed to assess the predictive value of higher BP on CVE occurrence. Results: We found that when the risk of higher BP on CVE occurrence was estimated based on time-weighted cumulative BP, the hazard ratios (HRs) increased with the increase in duration of higher BP exposure in each of the four BP groups: <120/<80, 120-129/<80, 130-139/80-89, and ≥140/≥90 mmHg; this time trend also occurred across the four different BP groups, with the higher BP group exhibiting CVE risk earlier during the follow-up. These results were confirmed by the same analysis performed on participants without baseline hypertension. However, such reasonable time trends did not occur when a single baseline BP was used as the primary estimation. We also demonstrated that the predictive values of baseline systolic and diastolic BP that predict CVE occurrence were only 0.6-3.2 and 0.2-3.1% lower, respectively, than those of cumulative BP combined with baseline BP during follow-up. Conclusions: Baseline BP remains a useful indicator for predicting future occurrence of CVEs. Nevertheless, time-weighted cumulative BP could more reliably estimate the CVE risk of higher BP exposure than baseline BP.

Project description:With epigenome-wide mapping of DNA methylation, a number of novel smoking-associated loci have been identified.We aimed to assess dose-response relationships of methylation at the top hits from the epigenome-wide methylation studies with smoking exposure as well as with total and cause-specific mortality.In a population-based prospective cohort study in Germany, methylation was quantified in baseline blood DNA of 1,000 older adults by the Illumina 450K assay. Deaths were recorded during a median follow-up of 10.3 years. Dose-response relationships of smoking exposure with methylation at nine CpGs were modeled by restricted cubic spline regression. Associations of individual and aggregate methylation patterns with all-cause, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality were assessed by multiple Cox regression.Clear dose-response relationships with respect to current and lifetime smoking intensity were consistently observed for methylation at six of the nine CpGs. Seven of the nine CpGs were also associated with mortality outcomes to various extents. A methylation score based on the top two CpGs (cg05575921 and cg06126421) showed the strongest associations with all-cause, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality, with adjusted hazard ratios (95% CI) of 3.59 (2.10, 6.16), 7.41 (2.81, 19.54), and 2.48 (1.01, 6.08), respectively, for participants with methylation levels in the lowest quartile at both CpGs. Adding methylation at those two CpGs into a model that included the variables of the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation chart for fatal cardiovascular risk prediction improved the predictive discrimination.The novel methylation biomarkers are highly informative for both smoking exposure and smoking-related mortality outcomes. In particular, these biomarkers may substantially improve cardiovascular risk prediction. Nevertheless, the findings of the present study need to be further validated in additional large longitudinal studies.Zhang Y, Schöttker B, Florath I, Stock C, Butterbach K, Holleczek B, Mons U, Brenner H. 2016. Smoking-associated DNA methylation biomarkers and their predictive value for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Environ Health Perspect 124:67-74; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1409020.

Project description:AimsThe aim of the present study is to determine the pooled predictive value of carotid distensibility coefficient (DC) for cardiovascular (CV) diseases and all-cause mortality.BackgroundArterial stiffness is associated with future CV events. Aortic pulse wave velocity is a commonly used predictor for CV diseases and all-cause mortality; however, its assessment requires specific devices and is not always applicable in all patients. In addition to the aortic artery, the carotid artery is also susceptible to atherosclerosis, and is highly accessible because of the surficial property. Thus, carotid DC, which indicates the intrinsic local stiffness of the carotid artery and may be determined using ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging, is of interest for the prediction. However, the role of carotid DC in the prediction of CV diseases and all-cause mortality has not been thoroughly characterized, and the pooled predictive value of carotid DC remains unclear.MethodsA meta-analysis, which included 11 longitudinal studies with 20361 subjects, was performed.ResultsCarotid DC significantly predicted future total CV events, CV mortality and all-cause mortality. The pooled risk ratios (RRs) of CV events, CV mortality and all-cause mortality were 1.19 (1.06-1.35, 95%CI, 9 studies with 18993 subjects), 1.09 (1.01-1.18, 95%CI, 2 studies with 2550 subjects) and 1.65 (1.15-2.37, 95%CI, 6 studies with 3619 subjects), respectively, for the subjects who had the lowest quartile of DC compared with their counterparts who had higher quartiles. For CV events, CV mortality and all-cause mortality, a decrease in DC of 1 SD increased the risk by 13%, 6% and 41% respectively, whereas a decrease in DC of 1 unit increased the risk by 3%, 1% and 6% respectively.ConclusionsCarotid DC is a significant predictor of future CV diseases and all-cause mortality, which may facilitate the identification of high-risk patients for the early diagnosis and prompt treatment of CV diseases.

Project description:BackgroundHigh blood pressure is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Visit-to-visit blood pressure variability (BPV) has recently been shown to predict cardiovascular outcomes. We investigated the predictive value of BPV for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) among patients with coronary artery disease (CAD), with and without type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).MethodsPatients with stable CAD were enrolled and monitored for new MACE. Visit-to-visit BPV was defined as the coefficient of variation (CV) of systolic and diastolic BP across clinic visits. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate the association of BPV with MACE. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to assess its predictive ability.ResultsAmong 1140 Chinese patients with stable CAD, 192 (17%) experienced a new MACE. In multivariable analyses, the risk of MACE was significantly associated with CV of systolic BP (odds ratio [OR] for highest versus lowest quartile, 3.30; 95% CI 1.97-5.54), and diastolic BP (OR for highest versus lowest quartile, 2.39; 95% CI 1.39-4.11), after adjustment for variables of the risk factor model (age, gender, T2DM, hypertension, antihypertensive agents, number of BP measurements) and mean BP. The risk factor model had an AUC of 0.70 for prediction of MACE. Adding systolic/diastolic CV into the risk factor model with mean BP significantly increased the AUC to 0.73/0.72 (P = 0.002/0.007). In subgroup analyses, higher CV of systolic BP remained significantly associated with an increased risk for MACE in patients with and without T2DM, whereas the association of CV of diastolic BP with MACE was observed only in those without T2DM.ConclusionsVisit-to-visit variability of systolic BP and of diastolic BP was an independent predictor of new MACE and provided incremental prognostic value beyond mean BP and conventional risk factors in patients with stable CAD. The association of BPV in CAD patients without T2DM with subsequent risk for MACE was stronger than in those with T2DM.

Dataset Information

Predictive Value of Cumulative Blood Pressure for All-Cause Mortality and Cardiovascular Events.

Publications

Predictive Value of Cumulative Blood Pressure for All-Cause Mortality and Cardiovascular Events.

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