Dataset Information

Modeling the Potential for Vaccination to Diminish the Burden of Invasive Non-typhoidal Salmonella Disease in Young Children in Mali, West Africa.

ABSTRACT:

Background

In sub-Saharan Africa, systematic surveillance of young children with suspected invasive bacterial disease (e.g., septicemia, meningitis) has revealed non-typhoidal Salmonella (NTS) to be a major pathogen exhibiting high case fatality (~20%). Where infant vaccination against Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) and Streptococcus pneumoniae has been introduced to prevent invasive disease caused by these pathogens, as in Bamako, Mali, their burden has decreased markedly. In parallel, NTS has become the predominant invasive bacterial pathogen in children aged <5 years. While NTS is believed to be acquired orally via contaminated food/water, epidemiologic studies have failed to identify the reservoir of infection or vehicles of transmission. This has precluded targeting food chain interventions to diminish disease transmission but conversely has fostered the development of vaccines to prevent invasive NTS (iNTS) disease. We developed a mathematical model to estimate the potential impact of NTS vaccination programs in Bamako.

Methodology/principal findings

A Markov chain transmission model was developed utilizing age-specific Bamako demographic data and hospital surveillance data for iNTS disease in children aged <5 years and assuming vaccine coverage and efficacy similar to the existing, successfully implemented, Hib vaccine. Annual iNTS hospitalizations and deaths in children <5 years, with and without a Salmonella Enteritidis/Salmonella Typhimurium vaccine, were the model's outcomes of interest. Per the model, high coverage/high efficacy iNTS vaccination programs would drastically diminish iNTS disease except among infants age <8 weeks.

Conclusions/significance

The public health impact of NTS vaccination shifts as disease burden, vaccine coverage, and serovar distribution vary. Our model shows that implementing an iNTS vaccine through an analogous strategy to the Hib vaccination program in Bamako would markedly reduce cases and deaths due to iNTS among the pediatric population. The model can be adjusted for use elsewhere in Africa where NTS epidemiologic patterns, serovar prevalence, and immunization schedules differ from Bamako.

SUBMITTER: Bornstein K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5300129 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Modeling the Potential for Vaccination to Diminish the Burden of Invasive Non-typhoidal Salmonella Disease in Young Children in Mali, West Africa.

Bornstein Kristin K Hungerford Laura L Hartley David D Sorkin John D JD Tapia Milagritos D MD Sow Samba O SO Onwuchekwa Uma U Simon Raphael R Tennant Sharon M SM Levine Myron M MM

PLoS neglected tropical diseases 20170209 2

<h4>Background</h4>In sub-Saharan Africa, systematic surveillance of young children with suspected invasive bacterial disease (e.g., septicemia, meningitis) has revealed non-typhoidal Salmonella (NTS) to be a major pathogen exhibiting high case fatality (~20%). Where infant vaccination against Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) and Streptococcus pneumoniae has been introduced to prevent invasive disease caused by these pathogens, as in Bamako, Mali, their burden has decreased markedly. In paral ...[more]

PMID: 28182657

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Project description:BackgroundNon-typhoidal salmonella invasive disease is a major cause of global morbidity and mortality. Malnourished children, those with recent malaria or sickle-cell anaemia, and adults with HIV infection are at particularly high risk of disease. We sought to estimate the burden of disease attributable to non-typhoidal salmonella invasive disease for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017.MethodsWe did a systematic review of scientific databases and grey literature, and estimated non-typhoidal salmonella invasive disease incidence and mortality for the years 1990 to 2017, by age, sex, and geographical location using DisMod-MR, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. We estimated case fatality by age, HIV status, and sociodemographic development. We also calculated the HIV-attributable fraction and estimated health gap metrics, including disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs).FindingsWe estimated that 535 000 (95% uncertainty interval 409 000-705 000) cases of non-typhoidal salmonella invasive disease occurred in 2017, with the highest incidence in sub-Saharan Africa (34·5 [26·6-45·0] cases per 100 000 person-years) and in children younger than 5 years (34·3 [23·2-54·7] cases per 100 000 person-years). 77 500 (46 400-123 000) deaths were estimated in 2017, of which 18 400 (12 000-27 700) were attributable to HIV. The remaining 59 100 (33 300-98 100) deaths not attributable to HIV accounted for 4·26 million (2·38-7·38) DALYs in 2017. Mean all-age case fatality was 14·5% (9·2-21·1), with higher estimates among children younger than 5 years (13·5% [8·4-19·8]) and elderly people (51·2% [30·2-72·9] among those aged ≥70 years), people with HIV infection (41·8% [30·0-54·0]), and in areas of low sociodemographic development (eg, 15·8% [10·0-22·9] in sub-Saharan Africa).InterpretationWe present the first global estimates of non-typhoidal salmonella invasive disease that have been produced as part of GBD 2017. Given the high disease burden, particularly in children, elderly people, and people with HIV infection, investigating the sources and transmission pathways of non-typhoidal salmonella invasive disease is crucial to implement effective preventive and control measures.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Project description:BackgroundNon-typhoidal Salmonella (NTS) are a frequent cause of invasive infections in sub-Saharan Africa. They are frequently multidrug resistant (co-resistant to ampicillin, trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole, and chloramphenicol), and resistance to third-generation cephalosporin and fluoroquinolone non-susceptibility have been reported. Third-generation cephalosporins and fluoroquinolones are often used to treat invasive NTS infections, but azithromycin might be an alternative. However, data on antibiotic treatment efficacy in invasive NTS infections are lacking. In this study, we aimed to assess the spatiotemporal distribution of antimicrobial resistance in invasive NTS infections in sub-Saharan Africa and to describe the available evidence and recommendations on antimicrobial treatment.MethodsWe conducted a systematic review of all available literature on antimicrobial resistance and treatment in invasive NTS infections. We performed a random effects meta-analysis to assess the temporal distribution of multidrug resistance, third-generation cephalosporin resistance, and fluoroquinolone non-susceptibility. We mapped these data to assess the spatial distribution. We provided a narrative synthesis of the available evidence and recommendations on antimicrobial treatment.ResultsSince 2001, multidrug resistance was observed in 75% of NTS isolates from all sub-Saharan African regions (95% confidence interval, 70-80% and 65-84%). Third-generation cephalosporin resistance emerged in all sub-Saharan African regions and was present in 5% (95% confidence interval, 1-10%) after 2010. Fluoroquinolone non-susceptibility emerged in all sub-Saharan African regions but did not increase over time. Azithromycin resistance was reported in DR Congo. There were no reports on carbapenem resistance. We did not find high-quality evidence on the efficacy of antimicrobial treatment. There were no supranational guidelines. The "Access group" antibiotics ampicillin, trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole, and chloramphenicol and "Watch group" antibiotics ceftriaxone, cefotaxime, and ciprofloxacin were recommended as the first-choice antibiotics in national guidelines or reviews. These also recommended (a switch to) oral fluoroquinolones or azithromycin.ConclusionsIn addition to the widespread multidrug resistance in invasive NTS infections in sub-Saharan Africa, resistance to third-generation cephalosporins and fluoroquinolone non-susceptibility was present in all regions. There was a lack of data on the efficacy of antimicrobial treatment in these infections, and supranational evidence-based guidelines were absent.

Project description:BackgroundInvasive non-typhoidal Salmonella (iNTS) is a growing health-concern in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa. iNTS is associated with fatal diseases such as HIV and malaria. Despite high case fatality rates, the disease has not been given much attention. The limited number of population-based surveillance studies hampers accurate estimation of global disease burden. Given the lack of available evidence on the disease, it is critical to identify high risk areas for future surveillance and to improve our understanding of iNTS endemicity.MethodsConsidering that population-based surveillance data were sparse, a composite index called the iNTS risk factor (iNRF) index was constructed based on risk factors that commonly exist across countries. Four risk factors associated with the prevalence of iNTS were considered: malaria, HIV, malnutrition, and safe water. The iNRF index was first generated based on the four risk factors which were collected within a 50 km radius of existing surveillance sites. Pearson product-moment correlation was used to test statistical associations between the iNRF index and the prevalence of iNTS observed in the surveillance sites. The index was then further estimated at the subnational boundary level across selected countries and used to identify high risk areas for iNTS.ResultsWhile the iNRF index in some countries was generally low (i.e. Rwanda) or high (i.e. Cote d'Ivoire), the risk-level of iNTS was variable not only by country but also within a country. At the provincial-level, the highest risk area was identified in Maniema, the Democratic Republic of Congo, whereas Dakar in Senegal was at the lowest risk.ConclusionsThe iNRF index can be a useful tool to understand the geographically varying risk-level of iNTS. Given that conducting a population-based surveillance study requires extensive human and financial resources, identifying high risk areas for iNTS prior to a study implementation can facilitate an appropriate site-selection process in the future.

Dataset Information

Modeling the Potential for Vaccination to Diminish the Burden of Invasive Non-typhoidal Salmonella Disease in Young Children in Mali, West Africa.

Background

Methodology/principal findings

Conclusions/significance

Publications

Modeling the Potential for Vaccination to Diminish the Burden of Invasive Non-typhoidal Salmonella Disease in Young Children in Mali, West Africa.

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