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Interrupted time series analysis of children's blood lead levels: A case study of lead hazard control program in Syracuse, New York.

ABSTRACT: Children's blood lead concentrations have been closely monitored over the last two decades in the United States. The bio-monitoring surveillance data collected in local agencies reflected the local temporal trends of children's blood lead levels (BLLs). However, the analysis and modeling of the long-term time series of BLLs have rarely been reported. We attempted to quantify the long-term trends of children's BLLs in the city of Syracuse, New York and evaluate the impacts of local lead poisoning prevention programs and Lead Hazard Control Program on reducing the children's BLLs. We applied interrupted time series analysis on the monthly time series of BLLs surveillance data and used ARMA (autoregressive and moving average) models to measure the average children's blood lead level shift and detect the seasonal pattern change. Our results showed that there were three intervention stages over the past 20 years to reduce children's BLLs in the city of Syracuse, NY. The average of children's BLLs was significantly decreased after the interventions, declining from 8.77?g/dL to 3.94?g/dL during1992 to 2011. The seasonal variation diminished over the past decade, but more short term influences were in the variation. The lead hazard control treatment intervention proved effective in reducing the children's blood lead levels in Syracuse, NY. Also, the reduction of the seasonal variation of children's BLLs reflected the impacts of the local lead-based paint mitigation program. The replacement of window and door was the major cost of lead house abatement. However, soil lead was not considered a major source of lead hazard in our analysis.

SUBMITTER: Shao L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5300272 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Interrupted time series analysis of children's blood lead levels: A case study of lead hazard control program in Syracuse, New York.

Shao Liyang L Zhang Lianjun L Zhen Zhen Z

PloS one 20170209 2

Children's blood lead concentrations have been closely monitored over the last two decades in the United States. The bio-monitoring surveillance data collected in local agencies reflected the local temporal trends of children's blood lead levels (BLLs). However, the analysis and modeling of the long-term time series of BLLs have rarely been reported. We attempted to quantify the long-term trends of children's BLLs in the city of Syracuse, New York and evaluate the impacts of local lead poisoning ...[more]

PMID: 28182688

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Project description:BackgroundHospital readmission rates decreased for myocardial infarction (AMI), heart failure (CHF), and pneumonia with implementation of the first phase of the Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP). It is not established whether readmissions fell for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), an HRRP condition added in 2014.ObjectiveWe sought to determine whether HRRP penalties influenced COPD readmissions among Medicare, Medicaid, or privately insured patients.DesignWe analyzed a retrospective cohort, evaluating readmissions across implementation periods for HRRP penalties ("pre-HRRP" January 2010-April 2011, "implementation" May 2011-September 2012, "partial penalty" October 2012-September 2014, and "full penalty" October 2014-December 2016).PatientsWe assessed discharged patients ≥ 40 years old with COPD versus those with HRRP Phase 1 conditions (AMI, CHF, and pneumonia) or non-HRRP residual diagnoses in the Nationwide Readmissions Database.InterventionsHRRP was announced and implemented during this period, forming a natural experiment.MeasurementsWe calculated differences-in-differences (DID) for 30-day COPD versus HRRP Phase 1 and non-HRRP readmissions.Key resultsCOPD discharges for 1.2 million Medicare enrollees were compared with 22 million non-HRRP and 3.4 million HRRP Phase 1 discharges. COPD readmissions decreased from 19 to 17% over the study. This reduction was significantly greater than non-HRRP conditions (DID - 0.41%), but not HRRP Phase 1 (DID + 0.02%). A parallel trend was observed in the privately insured, with significant reduction compared with non-HRRP (DID - 0.83%), but not HRRP Phase 1 conditions (DID - 0.45%). Non-significant reductions occurred in Medicaid (DID - 0.52% vs. non-HRRP and - 0.21% vs. Phase 1 conditions).ConclusionsIn Medicare, HRRP implementation was associated with reductions in COPD readmissions compared with non-HRRP controls but not versus other HRRP conditions. Parallel findings were observed in commercial insurance, but not in Medicaid. Condition-specific penalties may not reduce readmissions further than existing HRRP trends.

Project description:In cancer patients, appropriate diagnosis and management of infection are frequently challenging owing to subtle or atypical presentation. We investigated the effectiveness of infectious disease (ID) consultations and the Antimicrobial Stewardship Program (ASP) in a Japanese cancer center. This 36-month-period, single-institution, interrupted time series analysis was retrospectively conducted during April 1, 2018-March 31, 2021, to evaluate a two-phase intervention: Phase 1 (notification of antimicrobials by the infection control team) and Phase 2 (establishing an ID consultation service and implementing ASP). Among 32,202 patients hospitalized, 22,096 and 10,106 hospitalizations occurred at baseline and during intervention period, respectively. The Antimicrobial Stewardship Team (AST) provided feedback on specific broad-spectrum antimicrobials in 913 instances (347 appropriate [38%]; 566 inappropriate [62%]), and 440 ID consultations were completed, with a 75% overall acceptance rate for AST suggestions. In Phase 2, monthly carbapenem days of therapy (CAR-DOT) decreased significantly, and narrow-spectrum antibiotic usage increased significantly in both trend and level; monthly DOT of antipseudomonal agents decreased significantly in trend. The results of these analyses of antimicrobial use are consistent with the DOT-based data based on antimicrobial use density (AUD). The total number of inpatient specimens increased significantly; the trend of multidrug-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus infections decreased, without changes in the incidence of other resistant organisms, all-cause in-hospital mortality, and length of stay. Actual and adjusted CAR purchase costs per patient-day decreased without significant changes in the actual and adjusted purchase cost per patient-day for all intravenous antimicrobials. Combining ID consultation and ASP reduced carbapenem use without negative patient outcomes. Their implementation could facilitate establishment of safe cancer treatment facilities in Japan and improve prognosis in cancer patients.

Project description:BackgroundThe unprecedented coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused millions of infections worldwide and represents a significant challenge facing modern health care systems. This study was conducted to investigate the impact of lockdown measures in a tertiary Children's Hospital in southwest China, which might be used to predict long-term effects related to health-seeking behavior of parents/caregivers.MethodsThis study included newborns enrolled over a span of 86 weeks between January 4, 2019, and August 27, 2020. We designated two time periods for analysis purposes: a stable pre-COVID period(55 weeks between January 4, 2019, and January 23, 2020) and a COVID-impacted period (31 weeks between January 24, 2020, and August 27, 2020). An interrupted time-series analysis was employed to compare changes and trends in hospital admissions and disease spectra before and after the period of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Furthermore, this study was conducted to evaluate whether the health-seeking behavior of parents/caregivers was influenced by pandemic factors.ResultsOverall, 16,640 infants were admitted to the neonatology department during the pre-COVID period (n = 12,082) and the COVID-impacted period (n = 4,558). The per week neonatal admissions consistently decreased following the first days of NPIs (January 24, 2020). The average weekly admission rates of 220/week pre-COVID period and 147/week COVID-impacted period. There was an evident decrease in the volume of admissions for all disease spectra after the intervention, whereas the decrease of patients complaining about pathological jaundice-related conditions was statistically significant (p<0.05). In the COVID-impacted period, the percentage of patients who suffered from respiratory system diseases, neonatal encephalopathy, and infectious diseases decreased, while the percentage of pathological jaundice-related conditions and gastrointestinal system diseases increased. The neonatal mortality rates (NMRs) increased by 8.7% during the COVID-impacted period compared with the pre-COVID period.ConclusionsIn summary, there was a significant decline in neonatal admissions in a tertiary care hospital during the COVID-19 Pandemic and the associated NPIs. Additionally, this situation had a remarkable impact on disease spectra and health-seeking behavior of parents/caregivers. We, therefore, advise continuing follow-ups and monitoring the main health indicators in vulnerable populations affected by this Pandemic over time.

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Interrupted time series analysis of children's blood lead levels: A case study of lead hazard control program in Syracuse, New York.

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Interrupted time series analysis of children's blood lead levels: A case study of lead hazard control program in Syracuse, New York.

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