Mismatch between marine plankton range movements and the velocity of climate change.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Chivers WJ
PROVIDER: S-EPMC5309926 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Similar Datasets
Project description:Ongoing climate change is predicted to trigger major shifts in the geographic distribution of marine plankton species. However, it remains unclear whether species will successfully track optimal habitats to new regions, or face extinction. Here we show that one significant zooplankton group, the radiolaria, underwent a severe decline in high latitude species richness presaged by ecologic reorganization during the late Neogene, a time of amplified polar cooling. We find that the majority (71%) of affected species did not relocate to the warmer low latitudes, but went extinct. This indicates that some plankton species cannot track optimal temperatures on a global scale as assumed by ecologic models; instead, assemblages undergo restructuring and extinction once local environmental thresholds are exceeded. This pattern forewarns profound diversity loss of high latitude radiolaria in the near future, which may have cascading effects on the ocean food web and carbon cycle.
| S-EPMC7582175 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Although there are great concerns to what extent current and future climate change impacts biodiversity across different spatial and temporal scales, we still lack a clear information on different climate change metrics across fine spatial scales. Here we present an analysis of climate change and climate change velocity at a local scale (1 × 1 km) across Germany. We focus on seasonal climate variability and velocity and investigate changes in three time periods (1901-2015, 1901-1950 and 1951-2015) using a novel statistical approach. Our results on climate variability showed the highest trends for the 1951-2015 time period. The strongest (positive/negative) and spatially the most dispersed trends were found for Summer maximum temperature and Summer minimum temperatures. For precipitation the strongest positive trends were most pronounced in the summer (1951-2015) and winter (1901-2015). Results for climate change velocity showed that almost 90% of temperature velocities were in the range of 0.5 to 3 km/year, whereas all climate velocities for precipitation were within the range of -3.5 to 4.5 km/year. The key results amplify the need for more local and regional scale studies to better understand species individualistic responses to recent climate change and allow for more accurate future projections and conservation strategies.
| S-EPMC6379444 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Shifts in species distribution, or 'range shifts', are one of the most commonly documented responses to ocean warming, with important consequences for the function and structure of ecosystems, and for socio-economic activities. Understanding the genetic signatures of range shifts can help build our knowledge of the capacity of species to establish and persist in colonised areas. Here, seven microsatellite loci were used to examine the population connectivity, genetic structure and diversity of Octopus tetricus, which has extended its distribution several hundred kilometres polewards associated with the southwards extension of the warm East Australian Current along south-eastern Australia. The historical distribution and the range extension zones had significant genetic differences but levels of genetic diversity were comparable. The population in the range extension zone was sub-structured, contained relatively high levels of self-recruitment and was sourced by migrants from along the entire geographic distribution. Genetic bottlenecks and changes in population size were detected throughout the range extension axis. Persistent gene flow from throughout the historical zone and moderate genetic diversity may buffer the genetic bottlenecks and favour the range extension of O. tetricus. These characteristics may aid adaptation, establishment, and long-term persistence of the population in the range extension zone.
| S-EPMC6015011 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported.
| S-EPMC4974646 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Data on contemporary and future geographical distributions of marine species are crucial for guiding conservation and management policies in face of climate change. However, available distributional patterns have overlooked key ecosystem structuring species, despite their numerous ecological and socioeconomic services. Future range estimates are mostly available for few species at regional scales, and often rely on the outdated Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios of climate change, hindering global biodiversity estimates within the framework of current international climate policies. Here, we provide range maps for 980 marine structuring species of seagrasses, kelps, fucoids, and cold-water corals under present-day conditions (from 2010 to 2020) and future scenarios (from 2090 to 2100) spanning from low carbon emission scenarios aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1-1.9), to higher emissions under reduced mitigation strategies (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). These models were developed using state-of-the-art and advanced machine learning algorithms linking the most comprehensive and quality-controlled datasets of occurrence records with high-resolution, biologically relevant predictor variables. By integrating the best aspects of species distribution modelling over key ecosystem structuring species, our datasets hold the potential to enhance the ability to inform strategic and effective conservation policy, ultimately supporting the resilience of ocean ecosystems.
| S-EPMC10827387 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Countries export much of the harm created by their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions because the Earth's atmosphere intermixes globally. Yet, the extent to which this leads to inequity between GHG emitters and those impacted by the resulting climate change depends on the distribution of climate vulnerability. Here, we determine empirically the relationship between countries' GHG emissions and their vulnerability to negative effects of climate change. In line with the results of other studies, we find an enormous global inequality where 20 of the 36 highest emitting countries are among the least vulnerable to negative impacts of future climate change. Conversely, 11 of the 17 countries with low or moderate GHG emissions, are acutely vulnerable to negative impacts of climate change. In 2010, only 28 (16%) countries had an equitable balance between emissions and vulnerability. Moreover, future emissions scenarios show that this inequality will significantly worsen by 2030. Many countries are manifestly free riders causing others to bear a climate change burden, which acts as a disincentive for them to mitigate their emissions. It is time that this persistent and worsening climate inequity is resolved, and for the largest emitting countries to act on their commitment of common but differentiated responsibilities.
| S-EPMC4742864 | biostudies-other
Project description:Plankton communities account for at least half of global primary production and play a key role in the global carbon cycle. Warming and acidification may alter the interaction chains in these communities from the bottom and top of the food web. Yet, the relative importance of these potentially complex interactions has not yet been quantified. Here, we examine the isolated and combined effects of warming, acidification, and reductions in phytoplankton and predator abundances in a series of factorial experiments. We find that warming directly impacts the top of the food web, but that the intermediate trophic groups are more strongly influenced by indirect effects mediated by altered top-down interactions. Direct manipulations of predator and phytoplankton abundance reveal similar strong top-down interactions following top predator decline. A meta-analysis of published experiments further supports the conclusion that warming has stronger direct impacts on the top and bottom of the food web rather than the intermediate trophic groups, with important differences between freshwater and marine plankton communities. Our results reveal that the trophic effect of warming cascading down from the top of the plankton food web is a powerful agent of global change.
| S-EPMC7042755 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Describing the spatial velocity of climate change is essential to assessing the challenge of natural and human systems to follow its pace by adapting or migrating sufficiently fast. We propose a fully-determined approach, "MATCH", to calculate a realistic and continuous velocity field of any climate parameter, without the need for ad hoc assumptions. We apply this approach to the displacement of isotherms predicted by global and regional climate models between 1950 and 2100 under the IPCC-AR5 RCP 8.5 emission scenario, and show that it provides detailed velocity patterns especially at the regional scale. This method thus favors comparisons between models as well as the analysis of regional or local features. Furthermore, the trajectories obtained using the MATCH approach are less sensitive to inter-annual fluctuations and therefore allow us to introduce a trajectory regularity index, offering a quantitative perspective on the discussion of climate sinks and sources.
| S-EPMC8863831 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Widely regarded as an imminent threat to our oceans, ocean acidification has been documented in all oceanic basins. Projected changes in seawater chemistry will have catastrophic biotic effects due to ocean acidification hindering biogenic carbonate production, which will in turn lead to substantial changes in marine ecosystems. However, previous attempts to quantify the effect of acidification on planktonic calcifying organisms has relied on laboratory based studies with substantial methodological limitations. This has been overcome by comparing historic plankton tows from the seminal HMS Challenger Expedition (1872-1876) with the recent Tara Oceans expedition material (2009-2016). Nano CT-scans of selected equatorial Pacific Ocean planktonic foraminifera, have revealed that all modern specimens had up to 76% thinner shells than their historic counterparts. The "Challenger Revisited" project highlights the potential of historic ocean collections as a tool to investigate ocean acidification since the early Industrial Revolution. Further analyses of such biotic archives will enable researchers to quantify the effects of anthropogenic climate change across the globe.
| S-EPMC6994600 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Microbial communities of boreal peatlands under climate change conditions: Does community structure indicate the dynamics of ecosystem function?
| PRJEB25233 | ENA