Dataset Information

Risk analysis and prediction of visceral leishmaniasis dispersion in Sao Paulo State, Brazil.

ABSTRACT: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is an important neglected disease caused by a protozoan parasite, and represents a serious public health problem in many parts of the world. It is zoonotic in Europe and Latin America, where infected dogs constitute the main domestic reservoir for the parasite and play a key role in VL transmission to humans. In Brazil this disease is caused by the protozoan Leishmania infantum chagasi, and is transmitted by the sand fly Lutzomyia longipalpis. Despite programs aimed at eliminating infection sources, the disease continues to spread throughout the Country. VL in São Paulo State, Brazil, first appeared in the northwestern region, spreading in a southeasterly direction over time. We integrate data on the VL vector, infected dogs and infected human dispersion from 1999 to 2013 through an innovative spatial temporal Bayesian model in conjunction with geographic information system. This model is used to infer the drivers of the invasion process and predict the future progression of VL through the State. We found that vector dispersion was influenced by vector presence in nearby municipalities at the previous time step, proximity to the Bolívia-Brazil gas pipeline, and high temperatures (i.e., annual average between 20 and 23°C). Key factors affecting infected dog dispersion included proximity to the Marechal Rondon Highway, high temperatures, and presence of the competent vector within the same municipality. Finally, vector presence, presence of infected dogs, and rainfall (approx. 270 to 540mm/year) drove the dispersion of human VL cases. Surprisingly, economic factors exhibited no noticeable influence on disease dispersion. Based on these drivers and stochastic simulations, we identified which municipalities are most likely to be invaded by vectors and infected hosts in the future. Prioritizing prevention and control strategies within the identified municipalities may help halt the spread of VL while reducing monitoring costs. Our results contribute important knowledge to public and animal health policy planning, and suggest that prevention and control strategies should focus on vector control and on blocking contact between vectors and hosts in the priority areas identified to be at risk.

SUBMITTER: Seva AD

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5313239 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Risk analysis and prediction of visceral leishmaniasis dispersion in São Paulo State, Brazil.

Sevá Anaiá da Paixão AD Mao Liang L Galvis-Ovallos Fredy F Tucker Lima Joanna Marie JM Valle Denis D

PLoS neglected tropical diseases 20170206 2

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is an important neglected disease caused by a protozoan parasite, and represents a serious public health problem in many parts of the world. It is zoonotic in Europe and Latin America, where infected dogs constitute the main domestic reservoir for the parasite and play a key role in VL transmission to humans. In Brazil this disease is caused by the protozoan Leishmania infantum chagasi, and is transmitted by the sand fly Lutzomyia longipalpis. Despite programs aimed a ...[more]

PMID: 28166251

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Project description:BackgroundVisceral leishmaniasis (VL) is an important public health challenge in Brazil because of the high number of human and canine cases reported annually. Leishmania infantum is the etiological agent of VL and Lutzomyia longipalpis is its main vector. However, evidence suggests that this taxon constitutes a species complex. In Sao Paulo state, there are two populations of Lu. longipalpis, each secreting distinct pheromones, (S)-9-methylgermacrene-B and Cembrene 1; both have been associated with different patterns of VL transmission. The aim of the present study was to investigate the temporal distribution and natural infection of the (S)-9-methylgermacrene-B population of the Lu. longipalpis complex in a highly VL endemic area of Sao Paulo state to obtain information that may contribute to the surveillance of this zoonosis and to the planning of preventive and control measures.MethodsThe study was carried out in Panorama municipality, Sao Paulo State. Captures were made during 24 months in seven domiciles. The relation between sand fly abundance and climatic variables, temperature and humidity, was analyzed and natural infection by Leishmania spp. in sand fly females was investigated by nested PCR.ResultsA total of 4120 sand flies, with predominance of Lu. longipalpis (97.2%) were captured. The highest averages of sand flies/night/trap occurred in the rainy season (November-March) and a positive, significant correlation between sand fly abundance and the temperature and humidity 20 days before the capture days was found. Leishmania infantum DNA was detected in three out of 250 pools of females analyzed, giving an estimated minimum infection rate of 1.2%.ConclusionThe identification of the climatic association between the high abundance of the vector in this highly endemic VL focus constitutes a fundamental point for evaluating future vector and dog control measures and this information increases the data of VL foci in Sao Paulo state that could contribute to the public health authorities in planning prevention and control measures. The identification of natural infection by Le. infantum in Lu. longipalpis specimens reinforces the importance of entomological surveillance activities in this municipality.

Project description:Roadkill estimates for different species and species groups are available for many countries and regions. However, there is a lack of information from tropical countries, including from Latin America. In this study, we analyzed medium and large-sized mammal roadkill data from 18 toll road companies (TRC) in São Paulo State (6,580 km of monitored toll roads), Brazil. We extrapolated these roadkill numbers to the entire system of major paved roads in the State (36,503 km). The TRC collected mammal-road- mortality data both before (2-lanes) and after (4-lanes) road reconstruction. We used the "before" data from the TRC to estimate annual mammal-road-mortality along 2-lane roads that remained public roads. Combined with the data for the new 4-lane highways, this allowed us to estimate annual mammal road mortality for all the paved roads in the State. During 10 years of roadkill monitoring along toll roads, a total of 37,744 roadkilled mammals were recorded, representing a total of 32 medium to large-sized mammal species (average number of roadkilled individuals/year = 3,774 ± 1,159; min = 1,932; max = 5,369; 0.6 individuals roadkilled/km/year). Most roadkilled species were common generalists, but there were also relatively high roadkill numbers of threatened and endangered species (4.3% of the data), which is a serious conservation concern. Most of the roadkill was reported occurred during the nocturnal period (66%, n = 14,189) and in the rainy months (October-March) (55%, n = 15,318). Reported mammal roadkill tended to increase between 2009 and 2014 (R2 = 0.614; p = 0.065), with an average increase of 313.5 individuals/year. Extrapolation of the results to the entire São Paulo State, resulted in an average estimate of 39,605 medium and large-sized mammals roadkilled per year. Our estimates of the number of roadkilled individuals can be used as one of the input parameters in population viability analyses to understand the extinction or extirpation risk, especially for threatened and endangered species.

Dataset Information

Risk analysis and prediction of visceral leishmaniasis dispersion in Sao Paulo State, Brazil.

Publications

Risk analysis and prediction of visceral leishmaniasis dispersion in São Paulo State, Brazil.

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