Dataset Information

Selection of first-line therapy in multiple sclerosis using risk-benefit decision analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

To integrate long-term measures of disease-modifying drug efficacy and risk to guide selection of first-line treatment of multiple sclerosis.

Methods

We created a Markov decision model to evaluate disability worsening and progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) risk in patients receiving natalizumab (NTZ), fingolimod (FGL), or glatiramer acetate (GA) over 30 years. Leveraging publicly available data, we integrated treatment utility, disability worsening, and risk of PML into quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). We performed sensitivity analyses varying PML risk, mortality and morbidity, and relative risk of disease worsening across clinically relevant ranges.

Results

Over the entire reported range of NTZ-associated PML risk, NTZ as first-line therapy is predicted to provide a greater net benefit (15.06 QALYs) than FGL (13.99 QALYs) or GA (12.71 QALYs) treatment over 30 years, after accounting for loss of QALYs due to PML or death (resulting from all causes). NTZ treatment is associated with delayed worsening to an Expanded Disability Status Scale score ?6.0 vs FGL or GA (22.7, 17.0, and 12.4 years, respectively). Compared to untreated patients, NTZ-treated patients have a greater relative risk of death in the early years of treatment that varies according to PML risk profile.

Conclusions

NTZ as a first-line treatment is associated with the highest net benefit across full ranges of PML risk, mortality, and morbidity compared to FGL or GA. Integrated modeling of long-term treatment risks and benefits informs stratified clinical decision-making and can support patient counseling on selection of first-line treatment options.

SUBMITTER: Bargiela D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5317380 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Selection of first-line therapy in multiple sclerosis using risk-benefit decision analysis.

Bargiela David D Bianchi Matthew T MT Westover M Brandon MB Chibnik Lori B LB Healy Brian C BC De Jager Philip L PL Xia Zongqi Z

Neurology 20170113 7

<h4>Objective</h4>To integrate long-term measures of disease-modifying drug efficacy and risk to guide selection of first-line treatment of multiple sclerosis.<h4>Methods</h4>We created a Markov decision model to evaluate disability worsening and progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) risk in patients receiving natalizumab (NTZ), fingolimod (FGL), or glatiramer acetate (GA) over 30 years. Leveraging publicly available data, we integrated treatment utility, disability worsening, and ris ...[more]

PMID: 28087821

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Project description:Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic demyelinating disease of the central nervous system and mainly affects young adults. Its natural history has changed in recent years with the advent of disease-modifying drugs, which have been available since the early 1990s. The increasing number of first-line and second-line treatment options, together with the variable course of the disease and patient lifestyles and expectations, makes the therapeutic decision a real challenge. The aim of this review is to give a comprehensive overview of the main present and some future drugs for relapsing-remitting MS, including risk-benefit considerations, to enable readers to draw their own conclusions regarding the risk-benefit assessment of personalized treatment strategies, taking into account not only treatment-related but also disease-related risks. We performed a Medline literature search to identify studies on the treatment of MS with risk stratification and risk-benefit considerations. We focused our attention on studies of disease-modifying, immunomodulating, and immunosuppressive drugs, including monoclonal antibodies. Here we offer personal considerations, stemming from long-term experience in the treatment of MS and thorough discussions with other neurologists closely involved in the care of patients with the disease. MS specialists need to know not only the specific risks and benefits of single drugs, but also about drug interactions, either in simultaneous or serial combination therapy, and patient comorbidities, preferences, and fears. This has to be put into perspective, considering also the risks of untreated disease in patients with different clinical and radiological characteristics. There is no single best treatment strategy, but therapy has to be tailored to the patient. This is a time-consuming task, rich in complexity, and influenced by the attitude towards risk on the parts of both the patient and the clinical team. The broader the MS drug market becomes, the harder it will be for the clinician to help the patient decide which therapeutic strategy to opt for.

Dataset Information

Selection of first-line therapy in multiple sclerosis using risk-benefit decision analysis.

Objective

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Selection of first-line therapy in multiple sclerosis using risk-benefit decision analysis.

Similar Datasets

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