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Optimal combinations of control strategies and cost-effective analysis for visceral leishmaniasis disease transmission.

ABSTRACT: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a deadly neglected tropical disease that poses a serious problem in various countries all over the world. Implementation of various intervention strategies fail in controlling the spread of this disease due to issues of parasite drug resistance and resistance of sandfly vectors to insecticide sprays. Due to this, policy makers need to develop novel strategies or resort to a combination of multiple intervention strategies to control the spread of the disease. To address this issue, we propose an extensive SIR-type model for anthroponotic visceral leishmaniasis transmission with seasonal fluctuations modeled in the form of periodic sandfly biting rate. Fitting the model for real data reported in South Sudan, we estimate the model parameters and compare the model predictions with known VL cases. Using optimal control theory, we study the effects of popular control strategies namely, drug-based treatment of symptomatic and PKDL-infected individuals, insecticide treated bednets and spray of insecticides on the dynamics of infected human and vector populations. We propose that the strategies remain ineffective in curbing the disease individually, as opposed to the use of optimal combinations of the mentioned strategies. Testing the model for different optimal combinations while considering periodic seasonal fluctuations, we find that the optimal combination of treatment of individuals and insecticide sprays perform well in controlling the disease for the time period of intervention introduced. Performing a cost-effective analysis we identify that the same strategy also proves to be efficacious and cost-effective. Finally, we suggest that our model would be helpful for policy makers to predict the best intervention strategies for specific time periods and their appropriate implementation for elimination of visceral leishmaniasis.

SUBMITTER: Biswas S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5319670 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Optimal combinations of control strategies and cost-effective analysis for visceral leishmaniasis disease transmission.

Biswas Santanu S Subramanian Abhishek A ELMojtaba Ibrahim M IM Chattopadhyay Joydev J Sarkar Ram Rup RR

PloS one 20170221 2

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a deadly neglected tropical disease that poses a serious problem in various countries all over the world. Implementation of various intervention strategies fail in controlling the spread of this disease due to issues of parasite drug resistance and resistance of sandfly vectors to insecticide sprays. Due to this, policy makers need to develop novel strategies or resort to a combination of multiple intervention strategies to control the spread of the disease. To add ...[more]

PMID: 28222162

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Project description:BackgroundLeishmaniasis are a group of diseases caused by more than 20 species of the protozoan that are transmitted through the bite of female sand fly. The disease is endemic to 98 countries of the world. It affects most commonly the poorest of the poor and mainly males. Several research has been conducted to propose disease control strategies. Effective medical care, vector control, environmental hygiene, and personal protection are the mainstays of the current preventative and control methods. The mathematical models for the transmission dynamics of the disease studied so far did not consider the sex-biased burden of the disease into consideration.MethodologyUnlike the previous VL works, this study introduces a new deterministic sex-structured model for understanding the transmission dynamics of visceral leishmaniasis. Basic properties of the model including basic reproduction number ([Formula: see text]), and conditions for the existence of backward bifurcation of the model are explored. Baseline parameter values were estimated after the model was fitted to Ethiopia's VL data. Sensitivity analysis of the model was performed to identify the parameters that significantly impact the disease threshold. Numerical simulations were performed using baseline parameter values, and scenario analysis is performed by changing some of these parameters as appropriate.ConclusionThe analysis of the model shows that there is a possibility for a backward bifurcation for [Formula: see text], which means bringing [Formula: see text] to less than unity may not be enough to eradicate the disease. Our numerical result shows that the implementation of disease-preventive strategies, as well as effectively treating the affected ones can significantly reduce the disease prevalence if applied for more proportion of the male population. Furthermore, the implementation of vector management strategies also can considerably reduce the total prevalence of the disease. However, it is demonstrated that putting more effort in treating affected reservoir animals may not have any significant effect on the overall prevalence of the disease as compared to other possible mechanisms. The numerical simulation infers that a maximum of 60% of extra preventative measures targeted to only male population considerably reduces the total prevalence of VL by 80%. It is also possible to decrease the total prevalence of VL by 69.51% when up to 50% additional infected males receive treatment with full efficacy. Moreover, applying a maximum of 15% additional effort to reduce the number of vectors, decreases the total VL prevalence by 57.71%. Therefore, in order to reduce the disease burden of visceral leishmaniasis, public health officials and concerned stakeholders need to give more emphasis to the proportion of male humans in their intervention strategies.

Project description:BackgroundThe new waves of COVID-19 outbreaks caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant are developing rapidly and getting out of control around the world, especially in highly populated regions. The healthcare capacity (especially the testing resources, vaccination coverage, and hospital capacity) is becoming extremely insufficient as the demand will far exceed the supply. To address this time-critical issue, we need to answer a key question: How can we effectively infer the daily transmission risks in different districts using machine learning methods and thus lay out the corresponding resource prioritization strategies, so as to alleviate the impact of the Omicron outbreaks?MethodsWe propose a computational method for future risk mapping and optimal resource allocation based on the quantitative characterization of spatiotemporal transmission patterns of the Omicron variant. We collect the publicly available data from the official website of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) Government and the study period in this paper is from December 27, 2021 to July 17, 2022 (including a period for future prediction). First, we construct the spatiotemporal transmission intensity matrices across different districts based on infection case records. With the constructed cross-district transmission matrices, we forecast the future risks of various locations daily by means of the Gaussian process. Finally, we develop a transmission-guided resource prioritization strategy that enables effective control of Omicron outbreaks under limited capacity.ResultsWe conduct a comprehensive investigation of risk mapping and resource allocation in Hong Kong, China. The maps of the district-level transmission risks clearly demonstrate the irregular and spatiotemporal varying patterns of the risks, making it difficult for the public health authority to foresee the outbreaks and plan the responses accordingly. With the guidance of the inferred transmission risks, the developed prioritization strategy enables the optimal testing resource allocation for integrative case management (including case detection, quarantine, and further treatment), i.e., with the 300,000 testing capacity per day; it could reduce the infection peak by 87.1% compared with the population-based allocation strategy (case number reduces from 20,860 to 2689) and by 24.2% compared with the case-based strategy (case number reduces from 3547 to 2689), significantly alleviating the burden of the healthcare system.ConclusionsComputationally characterizing spatiotemporal transmission patterns allows for the effective risk mapping and resource prioritization; such adaptive strategies are of critical importance in achieving timely outbreak control under insufficient capacity. The proposed method can help guide public-health responses not only to the Omicron outbreaks but also to the potential future outbreaks caused by other new variants. Moreover, the investigation conducted in Hong Kong, China provides useful suggestions on how to achieve effective disease control with insufficient capacity in other highly populated countries and regions.

Project description:BackgroundVisceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a neglected parasitic disease that is fatal if left untreated. VL is endemic in Morocco and other countries in North Africa were it mainly affects children from rural areas. In Morocco, the direct observation of Leishmania parasites in bone marrow aspirates and serological tests are used to diagnose VL. Glucantime is the first line of treatment. The objective of this study was to report the costs associated to standard clinical management of pediatric VL from the provider perspective in Morocco. As a secondary objective we described the current clinical practices and the epidemiological characteristics of pediatric VL patients.MethodsFrom March to June 2014 we conducted a survey in eight hospitals treating pediatric VL patients in Morocco. A pro-forma was used to collect demographic, clinical and management data from medical records. We specifically collected data on VL diagnosis and treatment. We also estimated the days of hospitalization and the time to start VL treatment. Costs were estimated by multiplying the use of resources in terms of number of days in hospital, tests performed and drugs provided by the official prices. For patients receiving part of their treatment at Primary Health Centers (PHC) we estimated the cost of administering the Glucantime as outpatient. We calculated the median cost per VL patient. We also estimated the cost of managing a VL case when different treatment strategies were applied: inpatient and outpatient.ResultsWe obtained data from 127 VL patients. The median total cost per pediatric VL case in Morocco is 520 US$. The cost in hospitals applying an outpatient strategy is significantly lower (307 US$) than hospitals keeping the patients for the whole treatment (636 US$). However the outpatient strategy is not yet recommended as VL treatment for children in the Moroccan guidelines. VL diagnosis and treatment regimens should be standardized following the current guidelines in Morocco.

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Optimal combinations of control strategies and cost-effective analysis for visceral leishmaniasis disease transmission.

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Optimal combinations of control strategies and cost-effective analysis for visceral leishmaniasis disease transmission.

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