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Forecasting outpatient visits using empirical mode decomposition coupled with back-propagation artificial neural networks optimized by particle swarm optimization.

ABSTRACT: Accurately predicting the trend of outpatient visits by mathematical modeling can help policy makers manage hospitals effectively, reasonably organize schedules for human resources and finances, and appropriately distribute hospital material resources. In this study, a hybrid method based on empirical mode decomposition and back-propagation artificial neural networks optimized by particle swarm optimization is developed to forecast outpatient visits on the basis of monthly numbers. The data outpatient visits are retrieved from January 2005 to December 2013 and first obtained as the original time series. Second, the original time series is decomposed into a finite and often small number of intrinsic mode functions by the empirical mode decomposition technique. Third, a three-layer back-propagation artificial neural network is constructed to forecast each intrinsic mode functions. To improve network performance and avoid falling into a local minimum, particle swarm optimization is employed to optimize the weights and thresholds of back-propagation artificial neural networks. Finally, the superposition of forecasting results of the intrinsic mode functions is regarded as the ultimate forecasting value. Simulation indicates that the proposed method attains a better performance index than the other four methods.

SUBMITTER: Huang D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5319685 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Forecasting outpatient visits using empirical mode decomposition coupled with back-propagation artificial neural networks optimized by particle swarm optimization.

Huang Daizheng D Wu Zhihui Z

PloS one 20170221 2

Accurately predicting the trend of outpatient visits by mathematical modeling can help policy makers manage hospitals effectively, reasonably organize schedules for human resources and finances, and appropriately distribute hospital material resources. In this study, a hybrid method based on empirical mode decomposition and back-propagation artificial neural networks optimized by particle swarm optimization is developed to forecast outpatient visits on the basis of monthly numbers. The data outp ...[more]

PMID: 28222194

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Project description:BACKGROUND:During procedures for conducting multiple sequence alignment, that is so essential to use the substitution score of pairwise alignment. To compute adaptive scores for alignment, researchers usually use Hidden Markov Model or probabilistic consistency methods such as partition function. Recent studies show that optimizing the parameters for hidden Markov model, as well as integrating hidden Markov model with partition function can raise the accuracy of alignment. The combination of partition function and optimized HMM, which could further improve the alignment's accuracy, however, was ignored by these researches. RESULTS:A novel algorithm for MSA called ProbPFP is presented in this paper. It intergrate optimized HMM by particle swarm with partition function. The algorithm of PSO was applied to optimize HMM's parameters. After that, the posterior probability obtained by the HMM was combined with the one obtained by partition function, and thus to calculate an integrated substitution score for alignment. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of ProbPFP, we compared it with 13 outstanding or classic MSA methods. The results demonstrate that the alignments obtained by ProbPFP got the maximum mean TC scores and mean SP scores on these two benchmark datasets: SABmark and OXBench, and it got the second highest mean TC scores and mean SP scores on the benchmark dataset BAliBASE. ProbPFP is also compared with 4 other outstanding methods, by reconstructing the phylogenetic trees for six protein families extracted from the database TreeFam, based on the alignments obtained by these 5 methods. The result indicates that the reference trees are closer to the phylogenetic trees reconstructed from the alignments obtained by ProbPFP than the other methods. CONCLUSIONS:We propose a new multiple sequence alignment method combining optimized HMM and partition function in this paper. The performance validates this method could make a great improvement of the alignment's accuracy.

Dataset Information

Forecasting outpatient visits using empirical mode decomposition coupled with back-propagation artificial neural networks optimized by particle swarm optimization.

Publications

Forecasting outpatient visits using empirical mode decomposition coupled with back-propagation artificial neural networks optimized by particle swarm optimization.

Similar Datasets

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