Dataset Information

Defining the Risk of Zika and Chikungunya Virus Transmission in Human Population Centers of the Eastern United States.

ABSTRACT: The recent spread of mosquito-transmitted viruses and associated disease to the Americas motivates a new, data-driven evaluation of risk in temperate population centers. Temperate regions are generally expected to pose low risk for significant mosquito-borne disease; however, the spread of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) across densely populated urban areas has established a new landscape of risk. We use a model informed by field data to assess the conditions likely to facilitate local transmission of chikungunya and Zika viruses from an infected traveler to Ae. albopictus and then to other humans in USA cities with variable human densities and seasonality. Mosquito-borne disease occurs when specific combinations of conditions maximize virus-to-mosquito and mosquito-to-human contact rates. We develop a mathematical model that captures the epidemiology and is informed by current data on vector ecology from urban sites. The model demonstrates that under specific but realistic conditions, fifty-percent of introductions by infectious travelers to a high human, high mosquito density city could initiate local transmission and 10% of the introductions could result in 100 or more people infected. Despite the propensity for Ae. albopictus to bite non-human vertebrates, we also demonstrate that local virus transmission and human outbreaks may occur when vectors feed from humans even just 40% of the time. Inclusion of human behavioral changes and mitigations were not incorporated into the models and would likely reduce predicted infections. This work demonstrates how a conditional series of non-average events can result in local arbovirus transmission and outbreaks of human disease, even in temperate cities.

SUBMITTER: Manore CA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5319773 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Defining the Risk of Zika and Chikungunya Virus Transmission in Human Population Centers of the Eastern United States.

Manore Carrie A CA Ostfeld Richard S RS Agusto Folashade B FB Gaff Holly H LaDeau Shannon L SL

PLoS neglected tropical diseases 20170117 1

The recent spread of mosquito-transmitted viruses and associated disease to the Americas motivates a new, data-driven evaluation of risk in temperate population centers. Temperate regions are generally expected to pose low risk for significant mosquito-borne disease; however, the spread of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) across densely populated urban areas has established a new landscape of risk. We use a model informed by field data to assess the conditions likely to facilitate loc ...[more]

PMID: 28095405

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Project description:Chikungunya is a mosquito-borne viral infection of humans that previously was confined to regions in central Africa. However, during this century, the virus has shown surprising potential for geographic expansion as it invaded other countries including more temperate regions. With no vaccine and no specific treatment, the main control strategy for Chikungunya remains preventive control of mosquito populations. In consideration for the risk of Chikungunya introduction to the US, we developed a model for disease introduction based on virus introduction by one individual. Our study combines a climate-based mosquito population dynamics stochastic model with an epidemiological model to identify temporal windows that have epidemic risk. We ran this model with temperature data from different locations to study the geographic sensitivity of epidemic potential. We found that in locations with marked seasonal variation in temperature there also was a season of epidemic risk matching the period of the year in which mosquito populations survive and grow. In these locations controlling mosquito population sizes might be an efficient strategy. But, in other locations where the temperature supports mosquito development all year the epidemic risk is high and (practically) constant. In these locations, mosquito population control alone might not be an efficient disease control strategy and other approaches should be implemented to complement it. Our results strongly suggest that, in the event of an introduction and establishment of Chikungunya in the US, endemic and epidemic regions would emerge initially, primarily defined by environmental factors controlling annual mosquito population cycles. These regions should be identified to plan different intervention measures. In addition, reducing vector: human ratios can lower the probability and magnitude of outbreaks for regions with strong seasonal temperature patterns. This is the first model to consider Chikungunya risk in the US and can be applied to other vector borne diseases.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Eastern Equine Encephalitis (EEE) (Togaviridae, Alphavirus) is a highly pathogenic mosquito-borne arbovirus that circulates in an enzootic cycle involving Culiseta melanura mosquitoes and wild Passeriformes birds in freshwater swamp habitats. Recently, the northeastern United States has experienced an intensification of virus activity with increased human involvement and northward expansion into new regions. In addition to its principal role in enzootic transmission of EEE virus among avian hosts, recent studies on the blood-feeding behavior of Cs. melanura throughout its geographic range suggest that this mosquito may also be involved in epizootic / epidemic transmission to equines and humans in certain locales. Variations in blood feeding behavior may be a function of host availability, environmental factors, and/or underlying genetic differences among regional populations. Despite the importance of Cs. melanura in transmission and maintenance of EEE virus, the genetics of this species remains largely unexplored. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPLE FINDINGS:To investigate the occurrence of genetic variation in Cs. melanura, the genome of this mosquito vector was sequenced resulting in a draft genome assembly of 1.28 gigabases with a contig N50 of 93.36 kilobases. Populations of Cs. melanura from 10 EEE virus foci in the eastern North America were genotyped with double-digest RAD-seq. Following alignment of reads to the reference genome, variant calling, and filtering, 40,384 SNPs were retained for downstream analyses. Subsequent analyses revealed genetic differentiation between northern and southern populations of this mosquito species. Moreover, limited fine-scale population structure was detected throughout northeastern North America, suggesting local differentiation of populations but also a history of ancestral polymorphism or contemporary gene flow. Additionally, a genetically distinct cluster was identified predominantly at two northern sites. CONCLUSION AND SIGNIFICANCE:This study elucidates the first evidence of fine-scale population structure in Cs. melanura throughout its eastern range and detects evidence of gene flow between populations in northeastern North America. This investigation provides the groundwork for examining the consequences of genetic variations in the populations of this mosquito species that could influence vector-host interactions and the risk of human and equine infection with EEE virus.

Project description:Background & objectivesThere are reports about the susceptibility of Aedes mosquitoes to ZIKV from various countries, however, no such information is available from Indian sub-continent, although, high level of group cross-reactivity of ZIKV with other flaviviruses has been reported. During outbreak situations, many cases of Dengue (DEN) and Chikungunya (CHIK) are reported. In such scenario, vector mosquitoes are likely to get co-infection/secondary-infection with one or other virus. The present study was carried out to determine the susceptibility of Indian strain of Aedes aegypti to Zika virus (ZIKV) strain (MR-766) and the effect of co-infection/super-infection with either dengue virus (serotype-2) (DENV) or chikungunya virus (CHIKV) on ZIKV replication.MethodsAe. aegypti mosquitoes used in this study were reared for many generations since 1980 at laboratory colony maintained at the ICMR-National Institute of Virology, Pune, India. Transmissibility of ZIKV from infected mosquitoes to suckling mice was also studied. Mosquitoes were experimentally infected with ZIKV and super-infected with either DENV or CHIKV via membrane-feeding route and incubated for 14 days at 28±2°C and humidity of 85±5 per cent. Replication of these viruses in mosquitoes was confirmed using real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction and immunofluorescence assay. Twenty infected mosquitoes were allowed to feed upon four suckling CD1 mice for about 30 min. Transmission of the ZIKV by infected mosquitoes to suckling mice was confirmed by the appearance of clinical signs and the presence of viral RNA in different organs.ResultsConcomitant infection of mosquitoes with all the three viruses showed simultaneous propagation of all three viruses, confirmed by real time RT-PCR and IFA. Infection of mosquitoes with CHIKV followed by ZIKV showed positivity in individual head squashes (7%) for both viruses using IFA; only 8.3 per cent showed dual positivity with primary infection of ZIKV followed by DENV; 8.3 per cent dual infection positivity was observed when infected with DENV followed by ZIKV; 5 per cent showed dual infection was observed when infected with ZIKV followed by CHIKV. Ae. aegypti was found to be susceptible to ZIKV strain as ZIKV could be detected from the second post-infection day (PID) in infected mosquitoes. Transmission of ZIKV to mice by the bite of infected Ae. aegypti establishes this species as a potential vector.Interpretation & conclusionsFrom super-infection experiments, it was concluded that ZIKV might have a relative advantage in replication dynamics over DENV. Vertical transmission was not observed for ZIKV in experimentally infected mosquitoes (n=920 larvae). Further studies are required to understand the possibility of silently circulating ZIKV in India, which remain non-detected because of lack of surveillance.

Dataset Information

Defining the Risk of Zika and Chikungunya Virus Transmission in Human Population Centers of the Eastern United States.

Publications

Defining the Risk of Zika and Chikungunya Virus Transmission in Human Population Centers of the Eastern United States.

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