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Evidence for risk extrapolation in decision making by tadpoles.

ABSTRACT: Through time, the activity patterns, morphology, and development of both predators and prey change, which in turn alter the relative vulnerability of prey to their coexisting predators. Recognizing these changes can thus allow prey to make optimal decisions by projecting risk trends into the future. We used tadpoles (Lithobates sylvaticus) to test the hypothesis that tadpoles can extrapolate information about predation risk from past information. We exposed tadpoles to an odour that represented either a temporally consistent risk or an increasing risk. When tested for their response to the odour, the initial antipredator behaviour of tadpoles did not differ, appearing to approach the limit of their maximum response, but exposure to increasing risk induced longer retention of these responses. When repeating the experiment using lower risk levels, heightened responses occurred for tadpoles exposed to increasing risk, and the strongest responses were exhibited by those that received an abrupt increase compared to a steady increase. Our results indicate that tadpoles can assess risk trends through time and adjust their antipredator responses in a way consistent with an extrapolated trend. This is a sophisticated method for prey to avoid threats that are becoming more (or less) dangerous over part of their lifespan.

SUBMITTER: Crane AL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5322362 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Evidence for risk extrapolation in decision making by tadpoles.

Crane Adam L AL Ferrari Maud C O MC

Scientific reports 20170223

Through time, the activity patterns, morphology, and development of both predators and prey change, which in turn alter the relative vulnerability of prey to their coexisting predators. Recognizing these changes can thus allow prey to make optimal decisions by projecting risk trends into the future. We used tadpoles (Lithobates sylvaticus) to test the hypothesis that tadpoles can extrapolate information about predation risk from past information. We exposed tadpoles to an odour that represented ...[more]

PMID: 28230097

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Project description:BACKGROUND:While systematic review (SR) methods are gaining traction as a method for providing a reliable summary of existing evidence for health risks posed by exposure to chemical substances, it is becoming clear that their value is restricted to a specific range of risk management scenarios - in particular, those which can be addressed with tightly focused questions and can accommodate the time and resource requirements of a systematic evidence synthesis. METHODS:The concept of a systematic evidence map (SEM) is defined and contrasted to the function and limitations of systematic review (SR) in the context of risk management decision-making. The potential for SEMs to facilitate evidence-based decision-making are explored using a hypothetical example in risk management priority-setting. The potential role of SEMs in reference to broader risk management workflows is characterised. RESULTS:SEMs are databases of systematically gathered research which characterise broad features of the evidence base. Although not intended to substitute for the evidence synthesis element of systematic reviews, SEMs provide a comprehensive, queryable summary of a large body of policy relevant research. They provide an evidence-based approach to characterising the extent of available evidence and support forward looking predictions or trendspotting in the chemical risk sciences. In particular, SEMs facilitate the identification of related bodies of decision critical chemical risk information which could be further analysed using SR methods, and highlight gaps in the evidence which could be addressed with additional primary studies to reduce uncertainties in decision-making. CONCLUSIONS:SEMs have strong and growing potential as a high value tool in resource efficient use of existing research in chemical risk management. They can be used as a critical precursor to efficient deployment of high quality SR methods for characterising chemical health risks. Furthermore, SEMs have potential, at a large scale, to support the sort of evidence summarisation and surveillance methods which would greatly increase the resource efficiency, transparency and effectiveness of regulatory initiatives such as EU REACH and US TSCA.

Project description:BackgroundPublic health professionals are increasingly expected to engage in evidence-informed decision making to inform practice and policy decisions. Evidence-informed decision making involves the use of research evidence along with expertise, existing public health resources, knowledge about community health issues, the local context and community, and the political climate. The National Collaborating Centre for Methods and Tools has identified a seven step process for evidence-informed decision making. Tools have been developed to support public health professionals as they work through each of these steps. This paper provides an overview of tools used in three Canadian public health departments involved in a study to develop capacity for evidence-informed decision making.MethodsAs part of a knowledge translation and exchange intervention, a Knowledge Broker worked with public health professionals to identify and apply tools for use with each of the steps of evidence-informed decision making. The Knowledge Broker maintained a reflective journal and interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of decision makers and public health professionals. This paper presents qualitative analysis of the perceived usefulness and usability of the tools.ResultsTools were used in the health departments to assist in: question identification and clarification; searching for the best available research evidence; assessing the research evidence for quality through critical appraisal; deciphering the 'actionable message(s)' from the research evidence; tailoring messages to the local context to ensure their relevance and suitability; deciding whether and planning how to implement research evidence in the local context; and evaluating the effectiveness of implementation efforts. Decision makers provided descriptions of how the tools were used within the health departments and made suggestions for improvement. Overall, the tools were perceived as valuable for advancing and sustaining evidence-informed decision making.ConclusionTools are available to support the process of evidence-informed decision making among public health professionals. The usability and usefulness of these tools for advancing and sustaining evidence-informed decision making are discussed, including recommendations for the tools' application in other public health settings beyond this study. Knowledge and awareness of these tools may assist other health professionals in their efforts to implement evidence-informed practice.

Dataset Information

Evidence for risk extrapolation in decision making by tadpoles.

Publications

Evidence for risk extrapolation in decision making by tadpoles.

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