Dataset Information

Changes in field workability and drought risk from projected climate change drive spatially variable risks in Illinois cropping systems.

ABSTRACT: As weather patterns become more volatile and extreme, risks introduced by weather variability will become more critical to agricultural production. The availability of days suitable for field work is driven by soil temperature and moisture, both of which may be altered by climate change. We projected changes in Illinois season length, spring field workability, and summer drought risk under three different emissions scenarios (B1, A1B, and A2) down to the crop district scale. Across all scenarios, thermal time units increased in parallel with a longer frost-free season. An increase in late March and Early April field workability was consistent across scenarios, but a decline in overall April through May workable days was observed for many cases. In addition, summer drought metrics were projected to increase for most scenarios. These results highlight how the spatial and temporal variability in climate change may present unique challenges to mitigation and adaptation efforts.

SUBMITTER: Tomasek BJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5322927 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Changes in field workability and drought risk from projected climate change drive spatially variable risks in Illinois cropping systems.

Tomasek Bradley J BJ Williams Martin M MM Davis Adam S AS

PloS one 20170223 2

As weather patterns become more volatile and extreme, risks introduced by weather variability will become more critical to agricultural production. The availability of days suitable for field work is driven by soil temperature and moisture, both of which may be altered by climate change. We projected changes in Illinois season length, spring field workability, and summer drought risk under three different emissions scenarios (B1, A1B, and A2) down to the crop district scale. Across all scenarios ...[more]

PMID: 28231329

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Project description:Seasonal hypoxia on the Louisiana continental shelf (LCS) has grown to over 22,000 km2 with limited information available on how low oxygen effects the benthos. Benthic macrofaunal colonization and sediment biogeochemical parameters were characterized at twelve stations in waters 10 - 50 m deep along four transects spanning 320 km across the LCS hypoxic zone in the early fall of 2010 when bottom waters typically return to oxic conditions. Chemical data and sediment profile imaging (SPI) support three primary mechanistic pathways of organic matter degradation on the LCS: (i) metal oxide cycling in depositional muds, (ii) infauna-driven bioturbation delivering oxygen below the sediment-water interface, and (iii) sulfate reduction in sediments where iron oxide availability is limited. The transect nearest the Mississippi River delta had the highest concentrations of porewater and solid phase Mn and Fe with SPI images of recently deposited reddish, mixed muddy sediments suggestive of metal cycling. The deepest stations had high oxidized iron concentrations and rust colored sediments with faunal colonization that suggests sediments are oxidized via bioturbation. Many nearshore and central LCS stations had more black sediments, more disturbed clay layers, lower amounts of oxidized iron, and higher sulfate reduction rates than the deepest stations. Sediment mixing coefficients, DB , determined from chlorophyll-a concentration profiles varied between 33 and 183 cm-2 y-1. DB values were highest at the deepest stations where sediments were colonized. DB were not determined at two nearshore stations where chlorophyll-a concentrations were highly variable in surficial sediments, and on the eastern shelf where sedimentation is high. This study provides a regional view of benthic faunal colonization and sediment biogeochemistry on the LCS, describes regions with potentially different pathways of organic matter degradation, and demonstrates the importance of both bioturbation and physical mixing in processing the large amounts of organic matter in river-dominated continental shelf systems.

Project description:BackgroundSignificant shifts in climate are considered a threat to plants and animals with significant physiological limitations and limited dispersal abilities. The southern Appalachian Mountains are a global hotspot for plethodontid salamander diversity. Plethodontids are lungless ectotherms, so their ecology is strongly governed by temperature and precipitation. Many plethodontid species in southern Appalachia exist in high elevation habitats that may be at or near their thermal maxima, and may also have limited dispersal abilities across warmer valley bottoms.Methodology/principal findingsWe used a maximum-entropy approach (program Maxent) to model the suitable climatic habitat of 41 plethodontid salamander species inhabiting the Appalachian Highlands region (33 individual species and eight species included within two species complexes). We evaluated the relative change in suitable climatic habitat for these species in the Appalachian Highlands from the current climate to the years 2020, 2050, and 2080, using both the HADCM3 and the CGCM3 models, each under low and high CO(2) scenarios, and using two-model thresholds levels (relative suitability thresholds for determining suitable/unsuitable range), for a total of 8 scenarios per species.Conclusion/significanceWhile models differed slightly, every scenario projected significant declines in suitable habitat within the Appalachian Highlands as early as 2020. Species with more southern ranges and with smaller ranges had larger projected habitat loss. Despite significant differences in projected precipitation changes to the region, projections did not differ significantly between global circulation models. CO(2) emissions scenario and model threshold had small effects on projected habitat loss by 2020, but did not affect longer-term projections. Results of this study indicate that choice of model threshold and CO(2) emissions scenario affect short-term projected shifts in climatic distributions of species; however, these factors and choice of global circulation model have relatively small affects on what is significant projected loss of habitat for many salamander species that currently occupy the Appalachian Highlands.

Dataset Information

Changes in field workability and drought risk from projected climate change drive spatially variable risks in Illinois cropping systems.

Publications

Changes in field workability and drought risk from projected climate change drive spatially variable risks in Illinois cropping systems.

Similar Datasets

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