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H7N9 and H5N1 avian influenza suitability models for China: accounting for new poultry and live-poultry markets distribution data.

ABSTRACT: In the last two decades, two important avian influenza viruses infecting humans emerged in China, the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus in the late nineties, and the low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) H7N9 virus in 2013. China is home to the largest population of chickens (4.83 billion) and ducks (0.694 billion), representing, respectively 23.1 and 58.6% of the 2013 world stock, with a significant part of poultry sold through live-poultry markets potentially contributing to the spread of avian influenza viruses. Previous models have looked at factors associated with HPAI H5N1 in poultry and LPAI H7N9 in markets. However, these have not been studied and compared with a consistent set of predictor variables. Significant progress was recently made in the collection of poultry census and live-poultry market data, which are key potential factors in the distribution of both diseases. Here we compiled and reprocessed a new set of poultry census data and used these to analyse HPAI H5N1 and LPAI H7N9 distributions with boosted regression trees models. We found a limited impact of the improved poultry layers compared to models based on previous poultry census data, and a positive and previously unreported association between HPAI H5N1 outbreaks and the density of live-poultry markets. In addition, the models fitted for the HPAI H5N1 and LPAI H7N9 viruses predict a high risk of disease presence for the area around Shanghai and Hong Kong. The main difference in prediction between the two viruses concerned the suitability of HPAI H5N1 in north-China around the Yellow sea (outlined with Tianjin, Beijing, and Shenyang city) where LPAI H7N9 has not spread intensely.

SUBMITTER: Artois J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5329093 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:A virologic surveillance program for A(H7N9) virus was conducted from April 15, 2013 to February 14, 2014 in Guangzhou, aiming to clarify the geographical distribution of A(H7N9) viruses among live poultry markets (LPMs) and poultry farms in Guangzhou. Virological and serological surveys of poultry workers were also conducted to evaluate the risk of poultry-to-human transmission of the A(H7N9) virus.36 retail LPMs, 6 wholesale LPMs and 8 poultry farms were involved in our surveillance program. About 20 live poultry and environmental samples were obtained from each surveillance site at every sampling time. Different environmental samples were collected to represent different poultry-related work activities. RT-PCR and virus culture were performed to identify the A(H7N9) virus. Hemagglutinin inhibition assay and RT-PCR were conducted to detect possible A(H7N9) infection among poultry workers.A total of 8900 live poultry and environmental samples were collected, of which 131(1.5%) were tested positive for A(H7N9) virus. 44.4% (16/36) of retail LPMs and 50.0% (3/6) of wholesale LPMs were confirmed to be contaminated. No positive samples was detected from poultry farms. A significant higher positive sample rate was found in environmental samples related to poultry selling (2.6%) and slaughtering (2.4%), compared to poultry holding (0.9%). Correspondingly, A(H7N9) viruses were isolated most frequently from slaughter zone. In addition, 316 poultry workers associated with the 19 contaminated-LPMs were recruited and a low seroprevalence (1.6%) of antibody against A(H7N9) virus was detected. An asymptomatic A(H7N9) infection was also identified by RT-PCR.Our study highlights the importance of conducting effective surveillance for A(H7N9) virus and provides evidence to support the assumption that slaughtering is the key process for the propagation of A(H7N9) virus in retail LPMs. Moreover, the ability of A(H7N9) virus to cross species barrier is proved to be still limited.

Project description:BackgroundTransmission of the novel avian influenza A H7N9 virus seems to be predominantly between poultry and people. In the major Chinese cities of Shanghai, Hangzhou, Huzhou, and Nanjing--where most human cases of infection have occurred--live poultry markets (LPMs) were closed in April, 2013, soon after the initial outbreak, as a precautionary public health measure. Our objective was to quantify the effect of LPM closure in these cities on poultry-to-person transmission of avian influenza A H7N9 virus.MethodsWe obtained information about every laboratory-confirmed human case of avian influenza A H7N9 virus infection reported in the four cities by June 7, 2013, from a database built by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. We used data for age, sex, location, residence type (rural or urban area), and dates of illness onset. We obtained information about LPMs from official sources. We constructed a statistical model to explain the patterns in incidence of cases reported in each city on the basis of the assumption of a constant force of infection before LPM closure, and a different constant force of infection after closure. We fitted the model with Markov chain Monte Carlo methods.Findings85 human cases of avian influenza A H7N9 virus infection were reported in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Huzhou, and Nanjing by June 7, 2013, of which 60 were included in our main analysis. Closure of LPMs reduced the mean daily number of infections by 99% (95% credibility interval 93-100%) in Shanghai, by 99% (92-100%) in Hangzhou, by 97% (68-100%) in Huzhou, and by 97% (81-100%) in Nanjing. Because LPMs were the predominant source of exposure to avian influenza A H7N9 virus for confirmed cases in these cities, we estimated that the mean incubation period was 3·3 days (1·4-5·7).InterpretationLPM closures were effective in the control of human risk of avian influenza A H7N9 virus infection in the spring of 2013. In the short term, LPM closure should be rapidly implemented in areas where the virus is identified in live poultry or people. In the long term, evidence-based discussions and deliberations about the role of market rest days and central slaughtering of all live poultry should be renewed.FundingMinistry of Science and Technology, China; Research Fund for the Control of Infectious Disease; Hong Kong University Grants Committee; China-US Collaborative Program on Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases; Harvard Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics; and the US National Institutes of Health.

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H7N9 and H5N1 avian influenza suitability models for China: accounting for new poultry and live-poultry markets distribution data.

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