Dataset Information

Climatic niche divergence and habitat suitability of eight alien invasive weeds in China under climate change.

ABSTRACT: Testing climatic niche divergence and modeling habitat suitability under conditions of climate change are important for developing strategies to limit the introduction and expansion of alien invasive weeds (AIWs) and providing important ecological and evolutionary insights. We assessed climatic niches in both native and invasive ranges as well as habitat suitability under climate change for eight representative Chinese AIWs from the American continent. We used climatic variables associated with occurrence records and developed ecological niche models with Maxent. Interestingly, the climatic niches of all eight AIWs diverged significantly between the native and invasive ranges (the American continent and China). Furthermore, the AIWs showed larger climatic niche breadths in the invasive ranges than in the native ranges. Our results suggest that climatic niche shifts between native and invasive ranges occurred. Thus, the occurrence records of both native and invasive regions must be considered when modeling and predicting the spatial distributions of AIWs under current and future climate scenarios. Owing to high habitat suitability, AIWs were more likely to expand into regions of low latitude, and future climate change was predicted to result in a shift in the AIWs in Qinghai and Tibet (regions of higher altitude) as well as Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu (regions of higher latitude). Our results suggest that we need measures to prevent and control AIW expansion at the country-wide level.

SUBMITTER: Wan JZ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5330889 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Climatic niche divergence and habitat suitability of eight alien invasive weeds in China under climate change.

Wan Ji-Zhong JZ Wang Chun-Jing CJ Tan Jing-Fang JF Yu Fei-Hai FH

Ecology and evolution 20170208 5

Testing climatic niche divergence and modeling habitat suitability under conditions of climate change are important for developing strategies to limit the introduction and expansion of alien invasive weeds (AIWs) and providing important ecological and evolutionary insights. We assessed climatic niches in both native and invasive ranges as well as habitat suitability under climate change for eight representative Chinese AIWs from the American continent. We used climatic variables associated with ...[more]

PMID: 28261463

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Project description:The influence of climate on the distribution of taxa has been extensively investigated in the last two decades through Habitat Suitability Models (HSMs). In this context, the Worldclim database represents an invaluable data source as it provides worldwide climate surfaces for both historical and future time horizons. Thousands of HSMs-based papers have been published taking advantage of Worldclim 1.4, the first online version of this repository. In 2017, Worldclim 2.1 was released. Here, we evaluated spatially explicit prediction mismatch at continental scale, focusing on Europe, between HSMs fitted using climate surfaces from the two Worldclim versions (between-version differences). To this aim, we simulated occurrence probability and presence-absence across Europe of four virtual species (VS) with differing climate-occurrence relationships. For each VS, we fitted HSMs upon uncorrelated bioclimatic variables derived from each Worldclim version at three grid resolutions. For each factor combination, HSMs attaining sufficient discrimination performance on spatially independent test data were projected across Europe under current conditions and various future scenarios, and importance scores of the single variables were computed. HSMs failed in accurately retrieving the simulated climate-occurrence relationships for the climate-tolerant VS and the one occurring under a narrow combination of climatic conditions. Under current climate, noticeable between-version prediction mismatch emerged across most of Europe for these two VSs, whose simulated suitability mainly depended upon diurnal or yearly variability in temperature; differently, between-version differences were more clustered toward areas showing extreme values, like mountainous massifs or southern regions, for VSs responding to average temperature and precipitation trends. Under future climate, the chosen emission scenarios and Global Climate Models did not evidently influence between-version prediction discrepancies, while grid resolution synergistically interacted with VSs' niche characteristics in determining extent of such differences. Our findings could help in re-evaluating previous biodiversity-related works relying on geographical predictions from Worldclim-based HSMs.

Dataset Information

Climatic niche divergence and habitat suitability of eight alien invasive weeds in China under climate change.

Publications

Climatic niche divergence and habitat suitability of eight alien invasive weeds in China under climate change.

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