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Ensemble forecast of human West Nile virus cases and mosquito infection rates.

ABSTRACT: West Nile virus (WNV) is now endemic in the continental United States; however, our ability to predict spillover transmission risk and human WNV cases remains limited. Here we develop a model depicting WNV transmission dynamics, which we optimize using a data assimilation method and two observed data streams, mosquito infection rates and reported human WNV cases. The coupled model-inference framework is then used to generate retrospective ensemble forecasts of historical WNV outbreaks in Long Island, New York for 2001-2014. Accurate forecasts of mosquito infection rates are generated before peak infection, and >65% of forecasts accurately predict seasonal total human WNV cases up to 9 weeks before the past reported case. This work provides the foundation for implementation of a statistically rigorous system for real-time forecast of seasonal outbreaks of WNV.

SUBMITTER: DeFelice NB

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5333106 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Ensemble forecast of human West Nile virus cases and mosquito infection rates.

DeFelice Nicholas B NB Little Eliza E Campbell Scott R SR Shaman Jeffrey J

Nature communications 20170224

West Nile virus (WNV) is now endemic in the continental United States; however, our ability to predict spillover transmission risk and human WNV cases remains limited. Here we develop a model depicting WNV transmission dynamics, which we optimize using a data assimilation method and two observed data streams, mosquito infection rates and reported human WNV cases. The coupled model-inference framework is then used to generate retrospective ensemble forecasts of historical WNV outbreaks in Long Is ...[more]

PMID: 28233783

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