Dataset Information

Development of a new risk model for predicting cardiovascular events among hemodialysis patients: Population-based hemodialysis patients from the Japan Dialysis Outcome and Practice Patterns Study (J-DOPPS).

ABSTRACT:

Background

Cardiovascular (CV) events are the primary cause of death and becoming bedridden among hemodialysis (HD) patients. The Framingham risk score (FRS) is useful for predicting incidence of CV events in the general population, but is considerd to be unsuitable for the prediction of the incidence of CV events in HD patients, given their characteristics due to atypical relationships between conventional risk factors and outcomes. We therefore aimed to develop a new prognostic prediction model for prevention and early detection of CV events among hemodialysis patients.

Methods

We enrolled 3,601 maintenance HD patients based on their data from the Japan Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study (J-DOPPS), phases 3 and 4. We longitudinaly assessed the association between several potential candidate predictors and composite CV events in the year after study initiation. Potential candidate predictors included the component factors of FRS and other HD-specific risk factors. We used multivariable logistic regression with backward stepwise selection to develop our new prediction model and generated a calibration plot. Additinially, we performed bootstrapping to assess the internal validity.

Results

We observed 328 composite CV events during 1-year follow-up. The final prediction model contained six variables: age, diabetes status, history of CV events, dialysis time per session, and serum phosphorus and albumin levels. The new model showed significantly better discrimination than the FRS, in both men (c-statistics: 0.76 for new model, 0.64 for FRS) and women (c-statistics: 0.77 for new model, 0.60 for FRS). Additionally, we confirmed the consistency between the observed results and predicted results using the calibration plot. Further, we found similar discrimination and calibration to the derivation model in the bootstrapping cohort.

Conclusions

We developed a new risk model consisting of only six predictors. Our new model predicted CV events more accurately than the FRS.

SUBMITTER: Matsubara Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5342257 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Development of a new risk model for predicting cardiovascular events among hemodialysis patients: Population-based hemodialysis patients from the Japan Dialysis Outcome and Practice Patterns Study (J-DOPPS).

Matsubara Yukiko Y Kimachi Miho M Fukuma Shingo S Onishi Yoshihiro Y Fukuhara Shunichi S

PloS one 20170308 3

<h4>Background</h4>Cardiovascular (CV) events are the primary cause of death and becoming bedridden among hemodialysis (HD) patients. The Framingham risk score (FRS) is useful for predicting incidence of CV events in the general population, but is considerd to be unsuitable for the prediction of the incidence of CV events in HD patients, given their characteristics due to atypical relationships between conventional risk factors and outcomes. We therefore aimed to develop a new prognostic predict ...[more]

PMID: 28273175

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Project description:BackgroundSudden death is a leading cause of death in patients on maintenance hemodialysis therapy. During hemodialysis sessions, the gradient between serum and dialysate levels results in rapid electrolyte shifts, which may contribute to arrhythmias and sudden death. Controversies exist about the optimal electrolyte concentration in the dialysate; specifically, it is unclear whether patient outcomes differ among those treated with a dialysate potassium concentration of 3 mEq/L compared to 2 mEq/L.Study designProspective cohort study.Setting & participants55,183 patients from 20 countries in the Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study (DOPPS) phases 1 to 5 (1996-2015).PredictorDialysate potassium concentration at study entry.OutcomesCox regression was used to estimate the association between dialysate potassium concentration and both all-cause mortality and an arrhythmia composite outcome (arrhythmia-related hospitalization or sudden death), adjusting for potential confounders.ResultsDuring a median follow-up of 16.5 months, 24% of patients died and 7% had an arrhythmia composite outcome. No meaningful difference in clinical outcomes was observed for patients treated with a dialysate potassium concentration of 3 versus 2 mEq/L (adjusted HRs were 0.96 [95% CI, 0.91-1.01] for mortality and 0.98 [95% CI, 0.88-1.08] for arrhythmia composite). Results were similar across predialysis serum potassium levels. As in prior studies, higher serum potassium level was associated with adverse outcomes. However, dialysate potassium concentration had only minimal impact on serum potassium level measured predialysis (+0.09 [95% CI, 0.05-0.14] mEq/L serum potassium per 1 mEq/L greater dialysate potassium concentration).LimitationsData were not available for delivered (vs prescribed) dialysate potassium concentration and postdialysis serum potassium level; possible unmeasured confounding.ConclusionsIn combination, these results suggest that approaches other than altering dialysate potassium concentration (eg, education on dietary potassium sources and prescription of potassium-binding medications) may merit further attention to reduce risks associated with high serum potassium levels.

Project description:There is limited information about the clinical and prognostic significance of patient-reported recovery time.Prospective cohort study.6,040 patients in the DOPPS (Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study).Answer to question "How long does it take you to recover from a dialysis session?" categorized as follows: fewer than 2, 2-6, 7-12, or longer than 12 hours.Cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between recovery time and patient characteristics, hemodialysis treatment variables, health-related quality of life (HRQoL), and hospitalization and mortality.32% reported recovery time shorter than 2 hours; 41%, 2-6 hours; 17%, 7-12 hours; and 10%, longer than 12 hours. Using proportional odds (ordinal) logistic regression, shorter recovery time was associated with male sex, full-time employment, and higher serum albumin level. Longer recovery time was associated with older age, dialysis vintage, body mass index, diabetes, and psychiatric disorder. Greater intradialytic weight loss, longer dialysis session length, and lower dialysate sodium concentration were associated with longer recovery time. In facilities that used uniform dialysate sodium concentrations for ?90% of patients, the adjusted OR of longer recovery time, comparing dialysate sodium concentration<140 vs 140 mEq/L, was 1.72 (95% CI, 1.37-2.16). Recovery time was correlated positively with symptoms of kidney failure and kidney disease burden score and inversely with HRQoL mental and physical component summary scores. Using Cox regression, adjusting for potential confounders not influenced by recovery time, it was associated positively with first hospitalization and mortality (adjusted HRs for recovery time>12 vs 2-6 hours 1.22 [95% CI, 1.09-1.37] and 1.47 [95% CI, 1.19-1.83], respectively).Answers are subjective and not supported by physiologic measurements.Recovery time can be used to identify patients with poorer HRQoL and higher risks of hospitalization and mortality. Interventions to reduce recovery time and possibly improve clinical outcomes, such as increasing dialysate sodium concentration, need to be tested in randomized trials.

Project description:ObjectivesPatients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) treated with hemodialysis suffer a high burden of poor functional status. Poor functional status is known as a strong, consistent predictor of mortality. However, little is known about the trajectory of functional status and its association with clinical outcomes in the ESRD population. We examined the association between a change in the functional status over time and all-cause mortality among patients on hemodialysis.Design and methodsThis was a prospective cohort study of 817 patients with ESRD on hemodialysis with repeat measures of functional status, who enrolled in the Japan Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study phase V. The functional status was assessed based on the Katz Index and Lawton-Brody instrumental activities of daily living scale, and the assessments were conducted twice over a median of 361 (range: 339-378) days between 2012 and 2013. We classified patients into 2 groups based on having or not having at least a 1-point decline in the functional status score. To evaluate the association between the decline in the functional status and all-cause mortality with adjustment for potential confounders, a Cox regression analysis was conducted.ResultsOver the study period, 19.9% of the patients showed a decline in the functional status score. During the follow-up period, 44 (5.4%) patients died. Using the Cox regression analysis and adjusting for potential confounders, it was determined that the decline in functional status score was significantly associated with higher mortality (incidence rate: 2.2 vs. 7.0 per 100 person-years; adjusted hazard ratio: 2.68; 95% confidence interval: 1.31-5.50).ConclusionsThe present study provides evidence that ESRD patients on hemodialysis demonstrating a decline in the functional status are at elevated risk of mortality. Our findings strengthen the evidence underpinning the importance of interventions to maintain the functional status in this vulnerable population.

Project description:Poor nutritional status and both hyper- and hypophosphatemia are associated with increased mortality in maintenance hemodialysis (HD) patients. We assessed associations of phosphate binder prescription with survival and indicators of nutritional status in maintenance HD patients.Prospective cohort study (DOPPS [Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study]), 1996-2008.23,898 maintenance HD patients at 923 facilities in 12 countries.Patient-level phosphate binder prescription and case-mix-adjusted facility percentage of phosphate binder prescription using an instrumental-variable analysis.All-cause mortality.Overall, 88% of patients were prescribed phosphate binders. Distributions of age, comorbid conditions, and other characteristics showed small differences between facilities with higher and lower percentages of phosphate binder prescription. Patient-level phosphate binder prescription was associated strongly at baseline with indicators of better nutrition, ie, higher values for serum creatinine, albumin, normalized protein catabolic rate, and body mass index and absence of cachectic appearance. Overall, patients prescribed phosphate binders had 25% lower mortality (HR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.68-0.83) when adjusted for serum phosphorus level and other covariates; further adjustment for nutritional indicators attenuated this association (HR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.80-0.97). However, this inverse association was observed for only patients with serum phosphorus levels ?3.5 mg/dL. In the instrumental-variable analysis, case-mix-adjusted facility percentage of phosphate binder prescription (range, 23%-100%) was associated positively with better nutritional status and inversely with mortality (HR for 10% more phosphate binders, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.89-0.96). Further adjustment for nutritional indicators reduced this association to an HR of 0.95 (95% CI, 0.92-0.99).Results were based on phosphate binder prescription; phosphate binder and nutritional data were cross-sectional; dietary restriction was not assessed; observational design limits causal inference due to possible residual confounding.Longer survival and better nutritional status were observed for maintenance HD patients prescribed phosphate binders and in facilities with a greater percentage of phosphate binder prescription. Understanding the mechanisms for explaining this effect and ruling out possible residual confounding require additional research.

Project description:Rationale & Objective:Previous studies of inflammation and anemia management in hemodialysis (HD) patients may be biased due to patient differences. We used a self-matched longitudinal design to test whether new inflammation, defined as an acute increase in C-reactive protein (CRP) level, reduces hemoglobin response to erythropoiesis-stimulating agent (ESA) treatment. Study Design:Self-matched longitudinal design. Setting & Participants:3,568 new inflammation events, defined as CRP level > 10 mg/L following a 3-month period with CRP level ? 5 mg/L, were identified from 12,389 HD patients in the Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study (DOPPS) phases 4 to 6 (2009-2018) in 10 countries in which CRP is routinely measured. Predictor:"After" (vs "before") observing a high CRP level. Outcomes:Within-patient changes in hemoglobin level, ESA dose, and ESA hyporesponsiveness (hemoglobin < 10 g/dL and ESA dose > 6,000 [Japan] or >8,000 [Europe] U/wk). Analytical Approach:Linear mixed models and modified Poisson regression. Results:Comparing before with after periods, mean hemoglobin level decreased from 11.2 to 10.9 g/dL (adjusted mean change, -0.26 g/dL), while mean ESA dose increased from 6,320 to 6,960 U/wk (adjusted relative change, 8.4%). The prevalence of ESA hyporesponsiveness increased from 7.6% to 12.3%. Both the unadjusted and adjusted prevalence ratios of ESA hyporesponsiveness were 1.68 (95% CI, 1.48-1.91). These associations were consistent in sensitivity analyses varying CRP thresholds and were stronger when the CRP level increase was sustained over the 3-month after period. Limitations:Residual confounding by unmeasured time-varying risk factors for ESA hyporesponsiveness. Conclusions:In the 3 months after HD patients experienced an increase in CRP levels, hemoglobin levels declined quickly, ESA doses increased, and the prevalence of ESA hyporesponsiveness increased appreciably. Routine CRP measurement could identify inflammation as a cause of worsened anemia. In turn, these findings speak to a potentially important role for anemia therapies that are less susceptible to the effects of inflammation.

Project description:BackgroundA comprehensive analysis of sex-specific differences in the characteristics, treatment, and outcomes of individuals with end-stage renal disease undergoing dialysis might reveal treatment inequalities and targets to improve sex-specific patient care. Here we describe hemodialysis prevalence and patient characteristics by sex, compare the adult male-to-female mortality rate with data from the general population, and evaluate sex interactions with mortality.Methods and findingsWe assessed the Human Mortality Database and 206,374 patients receiving hemodialysis from 12 countries (Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, New Zealand, Spain, Sweden, the UK, and the US) participating in the international, prospective Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study (DOPPS) between June 1996 and March 2012. Among 35,964 sampled DOPPS patients with full data collection, we studied patient characteristics (descriptively) and mortality (via Cox regression) by sex. In all age groups, more men than women were on hemodialysis (59% versus 41% overall), with large differences observed between countries. The average estimated glomerular filtration rate at hemodialysis initiation was higher in men than women. The male-to-female mortality rate ratio in the general population varied from 1.5 to 2.6 for age groups <75 y, but in hemodialysis patients was close to one. Compared to women, men were younger (mean = 61.9 ± standard deviation 14.6 versus 63.1 ± 14.5 y), were less frequently obese, were more frequently married and recipients of a kidney transplant, more frequently had coronary artery disease, and were less frequently depressed. Interaction analyses showed that the mortality risk associated with several comorbidities and hemodialysis catheter use was lower for men (hazard ratio [HR]?= 1.11) than women (HR = 1.33, interaction p<0.001). This study is limited by its inability to establish causality for the observed sex-specific differences and does not provide information about patients not treated with dialysis or dying prior to a planned start of dialysis.ConclusionsWomen's survival advantage was markedly diminished in hemodialysis patients. The finding that fewer women than men were being treated with dialysis for end-stage renal disease merits detailed further study, as the large discrepancies in sex-specific hemodialysis prevalence by country and age group are likely explained by factors beyond biology. Modifiable variables, such as catheter use, showing significant sex interactions suggest interventional targeting. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Dataset Information

Development of a new risk model for predicting cardiovascular events among hemodialysis patients: Population-based hemodialysis patients from the Japan Dialysis Outcome and Practice Patterns Study (J-DOPPS).

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Development of a new risk model for predicting cardiovascular events among hemodialysis patients: Population-based hemodialysis patients from the Japan Dialysis Outcome and Practice Patterns Study (J-DOPPS).

Similar Datasets

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