Dataset Information

The burden of typhoid fever in low- and middle-income countries: A meta-regression approach.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Upcoming vaccination efforts against typhoid fever require an assessment of the baseline burden of disease in countries at risk. There are no typhoid incidence data from most low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), so model-based estimates offer insights for decision-makers in the absence of readily available data.

Methods

We developed a mixed-effects model fit to data from 32 population-based studies of typhoid incidence in 22 locations in 14 countries. We tested the contribution of economic and environmental indices for predicting typhoid incidence using a stochastic search variable selection algorithm. We performed out-of-sample validation to assess the predictive performance of the model.

Results

We estimated that 17.8 million cases of typhoid fever occur each year in LMICs (95% credible interval: 6.9-48.4 million). Central Africa was predicted to experience the highest incidence of typhoid, followed by select countries in Central, South, and Southeast Asia. Incidence typically peaked in the 2-4 year old age group. Models incorporating widely available economic and environmental indicators were found to describe incidence better than null models.

Conclusions

Recent estimates of typhoid burden may under-estimate the number of cases and magnitude of uncertainty in typhoid incidence. Our analysis permits prediction of overall as well as age-specific incidence of typhoid fever in LMICs, and incorporates uncertainty around the model structure and estimates of the predictors. Future studies are needed to further validate and refine model predictions and better understand year-to-year variation in cases.

SUBMITTER: Antillon M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5344533 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

The burden of typhoid fever in low- and middle-income countries: A meta-regression approach.

Antillón Marina M Warren Joshua L JL Crawford Forrest W FW Weinberger Daniel M DM Kürüm Esra E Pak Gi Deok GD Marks Florian F Pitzer Virginia E VE

PLoS neglected tropical diseases 20170227 2

<h4>Background</h4>Upcoming vaccination efforts against typhoid fever require an assessment of the baseline burden of disease in countries at risk. There are no typhoid incidence data from most low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), so model-based estimates offer insights for decision-makers in the absence of readily available data.<h4>Methods</h4>We developed a mixed-effects model fit to data from 32 population-based studies of typhoid incidence in 22 locations in 14 countries. We tested the ...[more]

PMID: 28241011

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Project description:BackgroundPeople accessing and completing treatment for tuberculosis can face large economic costs, even when treatment is provided free of charge. The WHO End TB Strategy targets the elimination of catastrophic costs among tuberculosis-affected households. While low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) represent 99% of global tuberculosis cases, only 29 of 135 LMICs had conducted national surveys of costs for patients with tuberculosis by December, 2022. We estimated costs for patients with tuberculosis in countries that have not conducted a national survey, to provide evidence on the economic burden of tuberculosis in these settings and inform estimates of global economic burden.MethodsWe extracted data from 22 national surveys of costs faced by patients with tuberculosis that were completed across 2015-22 and met inclusion criteria. Using a Bayesian meta-regression approach, we used these data and covariate data for all 135 LMICs to estimate per-patient costs (2021 US$) by cost category (ie, direct medical, direct non-medical, and indirect), country, drug resistance, and household income quintile. We also estimated the proportion of households experiencing catastrophic total costs (defined as >20% of annual household income) as a result of tuberculosis disease.FindingsAcross LMICs, mean direct medical costs incurred by patients with tuberculosis were estimated as US$211 (95% uncertainty interval 154-302), direct non-medical costs were $512 (428-620), and indirect costs were $530 (423-663) per episode of tuberculosis. Overall, per-patient costs were $1253 (1127-1417). Estimated proportions of tuberculosis-affected households experiencing catastrophic total costs ranged from 75·2% (70·3-80·0) in the poorest quintile to 42·5% (34·3-51·5) in the richest quintile, compared with 54·9% (47·0-63·2) overall.InterpretationTuberculosis diagnosis and treatment impose substantial costs on affected households. Eliminating these economic losses is crucial for removing barriers to accessing tuberculosis diagnosis and completing treatment among affected households and achieving the targets set in WHO's End TB Strategy.FundingWorld Health Organization.

Project description:Typhoid fever is responsible for a substantial health burden in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). New means of prevention became available with the prequalification of typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCV) by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2018. Policymakers require evidence to inform decisions about TCV. The economic burden related to typhoid fever can be considerable, both for healthcare providers and households, and should be accounted for in the decision-making process. We aimed to understand the breadth of the evidence on the cost of typhoid fever by undertaking a scoping review of the published literature. We searched scientific databases with terms referring to typhoid fever cost of illness to identify published studies for the period January 1st 2000 to May 24th 2024. We also conferred with stakeholders engaged in typhoid research to identify studies pending completion or publication. We identified 13 published studies reporting empirical data for 11 countries, most of them located in Asia. The total cost of a typhoid episode ranged from $23 in India to $884 in Indonesia (current 2022 United States Dollar [USD]). Household expenditures related to typhoid fever were characterized as catastrophic in 9 studies. We identified 5 studies pending completion or publication, which will provide evidence for 9 countries, most of them located in Africa. Alignment in study characteristics and methods would increase the usefulness of the evidence generated and facilitate cross-country and regional comparison. The gap in evidence across regions should be mitigated when studies undertaken in African countries are published. There remains a lack of evidence on the cost to treat typhoid in the context of increasing antimicrobial resistance. Decision-makers should consider the available evidence on the economic burden of typhoid, particularly as risk factors related to antimicrobial resistance and climate change increase typhoid risk. Additional studies should address typhoid illness costs, using standardized methods and accounting for the costs of antimicrobial resistance.

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Dataset Information

The burden of typhoid fever in low- and middle-income countries: A meta-regression approach.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

The burden of typhoid fever in low- and middle-income countries: A meta-regression approach.

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