Modelling optimal allocation of resources in the context of an incurable disease.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Nannyonga B
PROVIDER: S-EPMC5347997 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:We consider a model that distinguishes susceptible; infected, but not yet infectious; pre-symptomatic, symptomatic, asymptomatic, and hospitalized infectious; recovered and dead members of two groups: healthcare workers (HCW) and members of the community that they serve. Because of the frequency or duration of their exposures to SARS-CoV-2, a greater fraction of HCW would experience severe COVID-19 symptoms that require medical care, which reduces mortality rates, absent personal protective equipment (PPE). While N95 masks (and, possibly, other scarce medical resources) are available to members of both groups, they do not use them equally well (i.e. efficacy and compliance differ). We investigated the optimal allocation of potentially scarce medical resources between these groups to control the pandemic and reduce overall infections and mortality via derivation and analysis of expressions for the reproduction numbers and final size. We also simulated prevalence and cumulative incidence, quantities relevant to surge capacity and population immunity, respectively. We found that, under realistic conditions, the optimal allocation is virtually or entirely to HCW, but that allocation of surplus masks and other medical resources to members of the general community also reduces infections and deaths.
| S-EPMC8611337 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Health resources are limited, which means spending should be focused on the people, places and programs that matter most. Choosing the mix of programs to maximize a health outcome is termed allocative efficiency. Here, we extend the methodology of allocative efficiency to answer the question of how resources should be distributed among different geographic regions. METHODS:We describe a novel geographical optimization algorithm, which has been implemented as an extension to the Optima HIV model. This algorithm identifies an optimal funding of services and programs across regions, such as multiple countries or multiple districts within a country. The algorithm consists of three steps: (1) calibrating the model to each region, (2) determining the optimal allocation for each region across a range of different budget levels, and (3) finding the budget level in each region that minimizes the outcome (such as reducing new HIV infections and/or HIV-related deaths), subject to the constraint of fixed total budget across all regions. As a case study, we applied this method to determine an illustrative allocation of HIV program funding across three representative oblasts (regions) in Ukraine (Mykolayiv, Poltava, and Zhytomyr) to minimize the number of new HIV infections. RESULTS:Geographical optimization was found to identify solutions with better outcomes than would be possible by considering region-specific allocations alone. In the case of Ukraine, prior to optimization (i.e. with status quo spending), a total of 244,000 HIV-related disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were estimated to occur from 2016 to 2030 across the three oblasts. With optimization within (but not between) oblasts, this was estimated to be reduced to 181,000. With geographical optimization (i.e., allowing reallocation of funds between oblasts), this was estimated to be further reduced to 173,000. CONCLUSIONS:With the increasing availability of region- and even facility-level data, geographical optimization is likely to play an increasingly important role in health economic decision making. Although the largest gains are typically due to reallocating resources to the most effective interventions, especially treatment, further gains can be achieved by optimally reallocating resources between regions. Finally, the methods described here are not restricted to geographical optimization, and can be applied to other problems where competing resources need to be allocated with constraints, such as between diseases.
| S-EPMC6849208 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Nutrient intake is often measured with substantial error both in commonly used surrogate instruments such as a food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) and in gold standard-type instruments such as a diet record (DR). If there is a correlated error between the FFQ and DR, then standard measurement error correction methods based on regression calibration can produce biased estimates of the regression coefficient (?) of true intake on surrogate intake. However, if a biomarker exists and the error in the biomarker is independent of the error in the FFQ and DR, then the method of triads can be used to obtain unbiased estimates of ?, provided that there are replicate biomarker data on at least a subsample of validation study subjects. Because biomarker measurements are expensive, for a fixed budget, one can use a either design where a large number of subjects have one biomarker measure and only a small subsample is replicated or a design that has a smaller number of subjects and has most or all subjects validated. The purpose of this paper is to optimize the proportion of subjects with replicated biomarker measures, where optimization is with respect to minimizing the variance of ln(??). The methodology is illustrated using vitamin C intake data from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study where plasma vitamin C is the biomarker. In this example, the optimal validation study design is to have 21% of subjects with replicated biomarker measures.
| S-EPMC4268307 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Under different environmental stresses, bacteria optimize the allocation of cellular resources through a variety of mechanisms. Recently, researchers have used phenomenological models to quantitatively characterize the allocation of bacterial protein resources under metabolic and translational limitations. Some stresses interfere with protein maturation, thereby enhancing the expression of chaperones and proteases. However, the reallocation of protein resources caused by such environmental stresses has not been modeled quantitatively. Here, we developed a dynamic model of coarse-grained protein resource fluxes based on a self-replicator that includes protein maturation and degradation. Through flux balance analysis, it produces a constrained optimization problem that can be solved analytically. Accordingly, we predicted protein allocation fractions as functions of growth rate under different limitations, which are basically in line with empirical data. We cultured Escherichia coli in media containing different concentrations of chloramphenicol, acetic acid, and paraquat and measured the functional relationship between the expression level of ?-galactosidase driven by a constitutive promoter and the bacterial growth rate, respectively. Taking into account the possible mode of stress limitation on the fluxes, our model reproduces this experimentally measured relationship. In addition, our model is in good agreement with the experimental relationship between growth rate and proteome fraction of unnecessary protein in E. coli, considering the unoptimized upregulation of chaperones with useless protein overexpression. The results provide a more systematic view of bacterial stress adaptation that may help in designing for bioengineering or medical interventions.
| S-EPMC6127457 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This paper presents a simple bi-level multi-objective linear program (BLMOLP) with a hierarchical structure consisting of reservoir managers and several water use sectors under a multi-objective framework for the optimal allocation of limited water resources. Being the upper level decision makers (i.e., leader) in the hierarchy, the reservoir managers control the water allocation system and tend to create a balance among the competing water users thereby maximizing the total benefits to the society. On the other hand, the competing water use sectors, being the lower level decision makers (i.e., followers) in the hierarchy, aim only to maximize individual sectoral benefits. This multi-objective bi-level optimization problem can be solved using the simultaneous compromise constraint (SICCON) technique which creates a compromise between upper and lower level decision makers (DMs), and transforms the multi-objective function into a single decision-making problem. The bi-level model developed in this study has been applied to the Swat River basin in Pakistan for the optimal allocation of water resources among competing water demand sectors and different scenarios have been developed. The application of the model in this study shows that the SICCON is a simple, applicable and feasible approach to solve the BLMOLP problem. Finally, the comparisons of the model results show that the optimization model is practical and efficient when it is applied to different conditions with priorities assigned to various water users.
| S-EPMC5812611 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionGreat strides in responding to the HIV epidemic have led to improved access to and uptake of HIV services in Guyana, a lower-middle-income country with a generalized HIV epidemic. Despite efforts to scale up HIV treatment and adopt the test and start strategy, little is known about costs of HIV services across the care cascade.MethodsWe collected cost data from the national laboratory and nine selected treatment facilities in five of the country's ten Regions, and estimated the costs associated with HIV testing and services (HTS) and antiretroviral therapy (ART) from a provider perspective from January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2016. We then used the unit costs to construct four resource allocation scenarios. In the first two scenarios, we calculated how close Guyana would currently be to its 2020 targets if the allocation of funding across programs and regions over 2017-2020 had (a) remained unchanged from latest-reported levels, or (b) been optimally distributed to minimize incidence and deaths. In the next two, we estimated the resources that would have been required to meet the 2020 targets if those resources had been distributed (a) according to latest-reported patterns, or (b) optimally to minimize incidence and deaths.ResultsThe mean cost per test was US$15 and the mean cost per person tested positive was US$796. The mean annual cost per of maintaining established adult and pediatric patients on ART were US$428 and US$410, respectively. The mean annual cost of maintaining virally suppressed patients was US$648. Cost variation across sites may suggest opportunities for improvements in efficiency, or may reflect variation in facility type and patient volume. There may also be scope for improvements in allocative efficiency; we estimated a 28% reduction in the total resources required to meet Guyana's 2020 targets if funds had been optimally distributed to minimize infections and deaths.ConclusionsWe provide the first estimates of costs along the HIV cascade in the Caribbean and assessed efficiencies using novel context-specific data on the costs associated with diagnostic, treatment, and viral suppression. The findings call for better targeting of services, and efficient service delivery models and resource allocation, while scaling up HIV services to maximize investment impact.
| S-EPMC7595312 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In reality, severe water shortage crisis has made bad impact on the sustainable development of a region. In addition, uncertainties are inevitable in the irrigation system. Therefore, a fully fuzzy fractional programming model for optimization allocation of irrigation water resources, which aimed at not only irrigation water optimization but also improving water use efficiency. And then the developed model applied to a case study in Minqin County, Gansu Province, China, which selected maximum economic benefit of per unit water resources as planning objective. Moreover, surface and underground water are main water sources for irrigation. Thus, conjunctive use of surface and underground water was taken under consideration in this study. By solving the developed model, a series of optimal crop area and planting schemes, which were under different α-cut levels, were offered to the decision makers. The obtained results could be helpful for decision makers to make decision on the optimal use of irrigation water resources under multiple uncertainties.
| S-EPMC6563986 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In spite of reliable and skilled healthcare resources, the prevalence rate of obstetric fistula in Uganda is high. The risk factors for obstetric fistula cut across due to high poverty rates and cultural barriers. The main objective of this study was to assess the impact of inability to access skilled healthcare at delivery and implications to the economy. The specific objective was to determine the best way of investment in getting women access to skilled healthcare before, during and after child birth. The question to be answered was whether it was more economical to invest in getting women access to skilled healthcare, or in expanding healthcare. The study was conducted using data from the Uganda Demographic Health Survey 2016. The data was from 18,506 women in the age group of 15-49 in 15 regions around the country. Results show that the highest investment in providing access to skilled healthcare is required when there are few skilled healthcare centres. On the other hand, if there is little investment in providing access to skilled healthcare during child birth, many skilled healthcare centres are required. Results show further that the minimum time taken to reduce fistula prevalence is attained when there are many women accessing skilled healthcare in the few equipped health centres. However, if there are many skilled healthcare centres but a few women treated for obstetric fistula, then it will take longer to reduce fistula prevalence. Fitting the model to data suggested that Uganda has a big backlog of women to treat for obstetric fistula as in all skilled healthcare centres, there were less women treated than expected. Although still under the expected figure, the benefit of these treatments for obstetric fistula is that for every one woman treated, 8 more would seek treatment for the condition. This would however cost the country a great deal in that the treatment funds would perhaps give more returns if diverted to outreach activities aimed to get women seek skilled healthcare during child birth.
| S-EPMC7482929 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Microbial physiology exhibits growth laws that relate the macromolecular composition of the cell to the growth rate. Recent work has shown that these empirical regularities can be derived from coarse-grained models of resource allocation. While these studies focus on steady-state growth, such conditions are rarely found in natural habitats, where microorganisms are continually challenged by environmental fluctuations. The aim of this paper is to extend the study of microbial growth strategies to dynamical environments, using a self-replicator model. We formulate dynamical growth maximization as an optimal control problem that can be solved using Pontryagin's Maximum Principle. We compare this theoretical gold standard with different possible implementations of growth control in bacterial cells. We find that simple control strategies enabling growth-rate maximization at steady state are suboptimal for transitions from one growth regime to another, for example when shifting bacterial cells to a medium supporting a higher growth rate. A near-optimal control strategy in dynamical conditions is shown to require information on several, rather than a single physiological variable. Interestingly, this strategy has structural analogies with the regulation of ribosomal protein synthesis by ppGpp in the enterobacterium Escherichia coli. It involves sensing a mismatch between precursor and ribosome concentrations, as well as the adjustment of ribosome synthesis in a switch-like manner. Our results show how the capability of regulatory systems to integrate information about several physiological variables is critical for optimizing growth in a changing environment.
| S-EPMC4784908 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background and aimsHeteroblasty is an encompassing term referring to ontogenetic changes in the plant shoot. A shaded environment is known to affect the process of heteroblastic development; however, it is not known whether crowded or high density growing conditions can also alter heteroblasty. Compound leaves of the shade-intolerant Acacia implexa allocate less biomass per unit photosynthetic area than transitional leaves or phyllodes and it is hypothesized that this trait will convey an advantage in a crowded environment. Compound leaves also have larger photosynthetic capture area - a trait known to be advantageous in shade. This studied tested the hypothesis that more compound leaves will be developed under shade and crowded environments. Furthermore, this species should undergo optimal allocation of biomass to shoots and roots given shaded and crowded environments.MethodsA full factorial design of irradiance (high and low) and density levels (high, medium and low) on three populations sourced from varying rainfall regions (high, medium and low) was established under controlled glasshouse conditions. Traits measured include the number of nodes expressing a compound leaf, biomass allocation to shoots and roots, and growth traits. Key Results A higher number of nodes expressed a compound leaf under low irradiance and in high density treatments; however, there were no significant interactions across treatments. Phenotypes strongly associated with the shade avoidance syndrome were developed under low irradiance; however, this was not observed under high density. There was no significant difference in relative growth rates across light treatments, but growth was significantly slower in a crowded environment. Conclusions Heteroblastic development in Acacia can be altered by shade and crowded environments. In this experiment, light was clearly the most limiting factor to growth in a shaded environment; however, in a crowded environment there were additional limiting resources to growth.
| S-EPMC3025730 | biostudies-literature