Dataset Information

Dengue Baidu Search Index data can improve the prediction of local dengue epidemic: A case study in Guangzhou, China.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Dengue fever (DF) in Guangzhou, Guangdong province in China is an important public health issue. The problem was highlighted in 2014 by a large, unprecedented outbreak. In order to respond in a more timely manner and hence better control such potential outbreaks in the future, this study develops an early warning model that integrates internet-based query data into traditional surveillance data.

Methodology and principal findings

A Dengue Baidu Search Index (DBSI) was collected from the Baidu website for developing a predictive model of dengue fever in combination with meteorological and demographic factors. Generalized additive models (GAM) with or without DBSI were established. The generalized cross validation (GCV) score and deviance explained indexes, intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and root mean squared error (RMSE), were respectively applied to measure the fitness and the prediction capability of the models. Our results show that the DBSI with one-week lag has a positive linear relationship with the local DF occurrence, and the model with DBSI (ICC:0.94 and RMSE:59.86) has a better prediction capability than the model without DBSI (ICC:0.72 and RMSE:203.29).

Conclusions

Our study suggests that a DSBI combined with traditional disease surveillance and meteorological data can improve the dengue early warning system in Guangzhou.

SUBMITTER: Li Z

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5354435 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Dengue Baidu Search Index data can improve the prediction of local dengue epidemic: A case study in Guangzhou, China.

Li Zhihao Z Liu Tao T Zhu Guanghu G Lin Hualiang H Zhang Yonghui Y He Jianfeng J Deng Aiping A Peng Zhiqiang Z Xiao Jianpeng J Rutherford Shannon S Xie Runsheng R Zeng Weilin W Li Xing X Ma Wenjun W

PLoS neglected tropical diseases 20170306 3

<h4>Background</h4>Dengue fever (DF) in Guangzhou, Guangdong province in China is an important public health issue. The problem was highlighted in 2014 by a large, unprecedented outbreak. In order to respond in a more timely manner and hence better control such potential outbreaks in the future, this study develops an early warning model that integrates internet-based query data into traditional surveillance data.<h4>Methodology and principal findings</h4>A Dengue Baidu Search Index (DBSI) was c ...[more]

PMID: 28263988

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Project description:Dengue is one of the most serious mosquito-borne infectious diseases in the world. Aedes albopictus is the most invasive mosquito and one of the primary vectors of dengue. Vector control using insecticides is the only viable strategy to prevent dengue virus transmission. In Guangzhou, after the 2014 pandemic, massive insecticides have been implemented. Massive insecticide use may lead to the development of resistance, but few reports are available on the status of insecticide resistance in Guangzhou after 2014. In this study, Ae. albopictus were collected from four districts with varied dengue virus transmission intensity in Guangzhou from 2015 to 2017. Adult Ae. albopictus insecticide susceptibility to deltamethrin (0.03%), permethrin(0.25%), DDT(4%), malathion (0.8%) and bendiocarb (0.1%) was determined by the standard WHO tube test, and larval resistance bioassays were conducted using temephos, Bacillus thuringiensis israelensis (Bti), pyriproxyfen (PPF) and hexaflumuron. Mutations at the voltage-gated sodium channel (VGSC) gene and acetylcholinesterase (AChE) gene were analyzed. The effect of cytochrome P450s on the resistance of Ae. albopictus to deltamethrin was tested using the synergistic agent piperonyl butoxide (PBO). The results showed that Ae. albopictus populations have rapidly developed very high resistances to multiple commonly used insecticides at all study areas except malathion, Bti and hexaflumuron. We found 1534 codon mutations in the VGSC gene that were significantly correlated with the resistance to pyrethroids and DDT, and 11 synonymous mutations were also found in the gene. The resistance to deltamethrin can be significantly reduced by PBO but may generated cross-resistance to PPF. Fast emerging resistance in Ae. albopictus may affect mosquito management and threaten the prevention and control of dengue, similar to the resistance in Anopheles mosquitoes has prevented the elimination of malaria and call for timely and guided insecticide management.

Dataset Information

Dengue Baidu Search Index data can improve the prediction of local dengue epidemic: A case study in Guangzhou, China.

Background

Methodology and principal findings

Conclusions

Publications

Dengue Baidu Search Index data can improve the prediction of local dengue epidemic: A case study in Guangzhou, China.

Similar Datasets

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