Dataset Information

Climate variability, animal reservoir and transmission of scrub typhus in Southern China.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

We aimed to evaluate the relationships between climate variability, animal reservoirs and scrub typhus incidence in Southern China.

Methods

We obtained data on scrub typhus cases in Guangzhou every month from 2006 to 2014 from the Chinese communicable disease network. Time-series Poisson regression models and distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM) were used to evaluate the relationship between risk factors and scrub typhus.

Results

Wavelet analysis found the incidence of scrub typhus cycled with a period of approximately 8-12 months and long-term trends with a period of approximately 24-36 months. The DLNM model shows that relative humidity, rainfall, DTR, MEI and rodent density were associated with the incidence of scrub typhus.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that the incidence scrub typhus has two main temporal cycles. Determining the reason for this trend and how it can be used for disease control and prevention requires additional research. The transmission of scrub typhus is highly dependent on climate factors and rodent density, both of which should be considered in prevention and control strategies for scrub typhus.

SUBMITTER: Wei Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5358896 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Climate variability, animal reservoir and transmission of scrub typhus in Southern China.

Wei Yuehong Y Huang Yong Y Li Xiaoning X Ma Yu Y Tao Xia X Wu Xinwei X Yang Zhicong Z

PLoS neglected tropical diseases 20170308 3

<h4>Objectives</h4>We aimed to evaluate the relationships between climate variability, animal reservoirs and scrub typhus incidence in Southern China.<h4>Methods</h4>We obtained data on scrub typhus cases in Guangzhou every month from 2006 to 2014 from the Chinese communicable disease network. Time-series Poisson regression models and distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM) were used to evaluate the relationship between risk factors and scrub typhus.<h4>Results</h4>Wavelet analysis found the inc ...[more]

PMID: 28273079

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Project description:Background: Scrub typhus was epidemic in the western Pacific Ocean area and East Asia, scrub typhus epidemic in densely populated areas in southern China. To better understand the association between meteorological variables, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and scrub typhus incidence in Guangzhou was benefit to the control and prevention. Methodology/Principal Findings: We collected weekly data for scrub typhus cases and meteorological variables in Guangzhou, and Southern Oscillation Index from 2006 to 2018, and used the distributed lag non-linear models to evaluate the relationships between meteorological variables, SOI and scrub typhus. The median value of each variable was set as the reference. The high-risk occupations were farmer (51.10%), house worker (17.51%), and retiree (6.29%). The non-linear relationships were observed with different lag weeks. For example, when the mean temperature was 27.7°C with1-week lag, the relative risk (RR) was highest as 1.08 (95% CI: 1.01-1.17). The risk was the highest when the relative humidity was 92.0% with 9-week lag, with the RR of 1.10 (95% CI: 1.02-1.19). For aggregate rainfall, the highest RR was 1.06 (95% CI: 1.03-1.11), when it was 83.0 mm with 4-week lag. When the SOI was 19 with 11-week lag, the highest RR was 1.06 (95% CI: 1.01-1.12). Most of the extreme effects of SOI and meteorological factors on scrub typical cases were statistically significant. Conclusion/Significance: The high-risk occupations of scrub typhus in Guangzhou were farmer, house worker, and retiree. Meteorological factors and SOI played an important role in scrub typhus occurrence in Guangzhou. Non-linear relationships were observed in almost all the variables in our study. Approximately, mean temperature, and relative humidity positively correlated to the incidence of scrub typhus, on the contrary to atmospheric pressure and weekly temperature range (WTR). Aggregate rainfall and wind velocity showed an inverse-U curve, whereas the SOI appeared the bimodal distribution. These findings can be helpful to facilitate the development of the early warning system to prevent the scrub typhus.

Dataset Information

Climate variability, animal reservoir and transmission of scrub typhus in Southern China.

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Climate variability, animal reservoir and transmission of scrub typhus in Southern China.

Similar Datasets

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