Dataset Information

The dynamics of disease in a metapopulation: The role of dispersal range.

ABSTRACT: The establishment and spread of a disease within a metapopulation is influenced both by dynamics within each population and by the host and pathogen spatial processes through which they are connected. We develop a spatially explicit metapopulation model to investigate how the form of host and disease dispersal jointly influence the probability of disease establishment and invasion. We show that diseases are more likely to establish if both the host and the disease tend to disperse locally, since the former leads to the spatial aggregation of host populations in the environment while the latter facilitates the pathogen's exploitation of this spatial pattern. In contrast, local pathogen dispersal is likely to reduce the probability of subsequent disease spread because it increases the spatial segregation of infected and uninfected populations. The effects of local dispersal on disease dynamics are less pronounced when the pathogen spreads through the movement of infected hosts and more pronounced when pathogen dispersal is independent (for example through airborne viruses) though the details of host and pathogen biology can be important. These spatial effects tend to be more pronounced if the sites available for host occupation are themselves spatially aggregated.

SUBMITTER: North AR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5360276 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The dynamics of disease in a metapopulation: The role of dispersal range.

North Ace R AR Godfray H Charles J HCJ

Journal of theoretical biology 20170125

The establishment and spread of a disease within a metapopulation is influenced both by dynamics within each population and by the host and pathogen spatial processes through which they are connected. We develop a spatially explicit metapopulation model to investigate how the form of host and disease dispersal jointly influence the probability of disease establishment and invasion. We show that diseases are more likely to establish if both the host and the disease tend to disperse locally, since ...[more]

PMID: 28130098

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Project description:BackgroundDupont's Lark is an endangered bird, whose fragmented distribution in Europe is entirely restricted to Spain. This lark, suffering pronounced population decline and range contraction, inhabits steppes that have long been used for grazing sheep and are now threatened by rural abandonment and land use changes. Thus, for conservation of the lark, increasing knowledge about the connectivity of the Spanish metapopulation and identifying the most important connectivity nodes are crucial.MethodsThe study was carried out in Spain, using over 16,000 Dupont's Lark georeferenced observations. We used distance buffers to define populations and subpopulations, based on the available scientific information. We identified potential stepping stones using a MaxEnt probability of presence model. Connectivity was assessed using Conefor software, using the centroid of each subpopulation and stepping stone as nodes. Each node was assigned a quantitative attribute based on total habitat area, within-node habitat quality and internal fragmentation. We evaluated different connectivity scenarios by potential movement thresholds (5-20-100 km) and presence or absence of stepping stones in the network.ResultsDupont's Lark Iberian metapopulation comprises 24 populations and 100 subpopulations, plus 294 potential stepping stones. Movement thresholds and stepping stones had a strong influence in the potential network connectivity. The most important nodes are located in the core of the metapopulation, which shows connectivity among subpopulations in the different indices and scenarios evaluated. Peripheral populations are more isolated and require stepping stones or medium (20 km) or long (100 km) potential movement thresholds to join the network.DiscussionMetapopulation connectivity may be greater than expected, thanks to stepping stones and potential medium-distance movements. Connectivity is crucial for conservation and can be increased by preserving or improving adequate habitat in the most important nodes. Given the current species decline, steppe habitat should be urgently protected from land use changes and agriculture intensification, at least in the critical subpopulations and stepping stones. Long-term conservation of steppe lands and Dupont's Lark in Spain requires the recovery of traditional grazing and more research on juvenile dispersion. Meanwhile, the conservation of potentially critical stepping stones should be incorporated to management plans.

Dataset Information

The dynamics of disease in a metapopulation: The role of dispersal range.

Publications

The dynamics of disease in a metapopulation: The role of dispersal range.

Similar Datasets

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