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How to reveal people's preferences: Comparing time consistency and predictive power of multiple price list risk elicitation methods.

ABSTRACT: The question of how to measure and classify people's risk preferences is of substantial importance in the field of economics. Inspired by the multitude of ways used to elicit risk preferences, we conduct a holistic investigation of the most prevalent method, the multiple price list (MPL) and its derivations. In our experiment, we find that revealed preferences differ under various versions of MPLs as well as yield unstable results within a 30-minute time frame. We determine the most stable elicitation method with the highest forecast accuracy by using multiple measures of within-method consistency and by using behavior in two economically relevant games as benchmarks. A derivation of the well-known method by Holt and Laury (American Economic Review 92(5):1644-1655, 2002), where the highest payoff is varied instead of probabilities, emerges as the best MPL method in both dimensions. As we pinpoint each MPL characteristic's effect on the revealed preference and its consistency, our results have implications for preference elicitation procedures in general.

SUBMITTER: Csermely T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5366177 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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How to reveal people's preferences: Comparing time consistency and predictive power of multiple price list risk elicitation methods.

Csermely Tamás T Rabas Alexander A

Journal of risk and uncertainty 20160101 2

The question of how to measure and classify people's risk preferences is of substantial importance in the field of economics. Inspired by the multitude of ways used to elicit risk preferences, we conduct a holistic investigation of the most prevalent method, the multiple price list (MPL) and its derivations. In our experiment, we find that revealed preferences differ under various versions of MPLs as well as yield unstable results within a 30-minute time frame. We determine the most stable elici ...[more]

PMID: 28405057

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Project description:ObjectiveTo identify and assess the preferences of people with long-term health conditions toward generalizable characteristics of self-management support interventions, with the objective to inform the design of more person-centered support services.Data sourcesPrimary qualitative and quantitative data collected on a representative sample of individuals with at least one of the fifteen most prevalent long-term conditions in the UK.Study designTargeted literature review followed by a series of one-to-one qualitative semistructured interviews and a large-scale discrete choice experiment.Data collectionDigital recording of one-to-one qualitative interviews, one-to-one cognitive interviews, and a series of online quantitative surveys, including two best-worst scaling and one discrete choice experiment, with individuals with long-term conditions.Principal findingsOn average, patients preferred a self-management support intervention that (a) discusses the options available to the patient and make her choose, (b) is individual-based, (c) face to face (d) with doctor or nurse, (e) at the GP practice, (f) sessions shorter than 1 hour, and (g) occurring annually for two-third of the sample and monthly for the rest. We found heterogeneity in preferences via three latent classes, with class sizes of 41% (C1), 30% (C2), and 29% (C3). The individuals' gender [P < 0.05(C1), P < 0.01(C3)], age [P < 0.05(C1), P < 0.05(C2)], type of long-term condition [P < 0.05(C1), P < 0.01(C3)], and presence of comorbidity [P < 0.01(C1), P < 0.01(C3), P < 0.01(C3)] were able to characterize differences between these latent classes and help understand the heterogeneity of preferences toward the above mentioned features of self-management support interventions. These findings were then used to profile individuals into different preference groups, for each of whom the most desirable form of self-management support, one that was more likely to be adopted by the recipient, could be designed.ConclusionsWe identified several factors that could be used to inform a more nuanced self-management support service design and provision that take into account the recipient's characteristics and preferences.

Dataset Information

How to reveal people's preferences: Comparing time consistency and predictive power of multiple price list risk elicitation methods.

Publications

How to reveal people's preferences: Comparing time consistency and predictive power of multiple price list risk elicitation methods.

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