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Early animal farming and zoonotic disease dynamics: modelling brucellosis transmission in Neolithic goat populations.

ABSTRACT: Zoonotic pathogens are frequently hypothesized as emerging with the origins of farming, but evidence of this is elusive in the archaeological records. To explore the potential impact of animal domestication on zoonotic disease dynamics and human infection risk, we developed a model simulating the transmission of Brucella melitensis within early domestic goat populations. The model was informed by archaeological data describing goat populations in Neolithic settlements in the Fertile Crescent, and used to assess the potential of these populations to sustain the circulation of Brucella. Results show that the pathogen could have been sustained even at low levels of transmission within these domestic goat populations. This resulted from the creation of dense populations and major changes in demographic characteristics. The selective harvesting of young male goats, likely aimed at improving the efficiency of food production, modified the age and sex structure of these populations, increasing the transmission potential of the pathogen within these populations. Probable interactions between Neolithic settlements would have further promoted pathogen maintenance. By fostering conditions suitable for allowing domestic goats to become reservoirs of Brucella melitensis, the early stages of agricultural development were likely to promote the exposure of humans to this pathogen.

SUBMITTER: Fournie G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5367282 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Early animal farming and zoonotic disease dynamics: modelling brucellosis transmission in Neolithic goat populations.

Fournié Guillaume G Pfeiffer Dirk U DU Bendrey Robin R

Royal Society open science 20170215 2

Zoonotic pathogens are frequently hypothesized as emerging with the origins of farming, but evidence of this is elusive in the archaeological records. To explore the potential impact of animal domestication on zoonotic disease dynamics and human infection risk, we developed a model simulating the transmission of <i>Brucella melitensis</i> within early domestic goat populations. The model was informed by archaeological data describing goat populations in Neolithic settlements in the Fertile Cresc ...[more]

PMID: 28386446

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Human psittacosis, caused by Chlamydia (C.) psittaci, is likely underdiagnosed and underreported, since tests for C. psittaci are often not included in routine microbiological diagnostics. Source tracing traditionally focuses on psittacine pet birds, but recently other animal species have been gaining more attention as possible sources for human psittacosis. This review aims to provide an overview of all suspected animal sources of human psittacosis cases reported in the international literature. In addition, for each animal species the strength of evidence for zoonotic transmission was estimated. METHODS:A systematic literature search was conducted using four databases (Pubmed, Embase, Scopus and Proquest). Articles were included when there was mention of at least one human case of psittacosis and a possible animal source. Investigators independently extracted data from the included articles and estimated strength of evidence for zoonotic transmission, based on a self-developed scoring system taking into account number of human cases, epidemiological evidence and laboratory test results in human, animals, and the environment. RESULTS:Eighty articles were included, which provided information on 136 different situations of possible zoonotic transmission. The maximum score for zoonotic transmission was highest for turkeys, followed by ducks, owls, and the category 'other poultry'. Articles reporting about zoonotic transmission from unspecified birds, psittaciformes and columbiformes provided a relatively low strength of evidence. A genotypical match between human and animal samples was reported twenty-eight times, including transmission from chickens, turkeys, guinea fowl, peafowl, pigeons, ducks, geese, songbirds, parrot-like birds and owls. CONCLUSIONS:Strong evidence exists for zoonotic transmission from turkeys, chickens and ducks, in addition to the more traditionally reported parrot-like animal sources. Based on our scoring system, the evidence was generally stronger for poultry than for parrot-like birds. Psittaciformes should not be disregarded as an important source of human psittacosis, still clinicians and public health officials should include poultry and birds species other than parrots in medical history and source tracing.

Project description:Bovine tuberculosis (BTB) is an endemic zoonosis in Morocco caused by Mycobacterium bovis, which infects many domestic animals and is transmitted to humans through consumption of raw milk or from contact with infected animals. The prevalence of BTB in Moroccan cattle is estimated at 18%, and 33% at the individual and the herd level respectively, but the human M. bovis burden needs further clarification. The current control strategy based on test and slaughter should be improved through local context adaptation taking into account a suitable compensation in order to reduce BTB prevalence in Morocco and decrease the disease burden in humans and animals. We established a simple compartmental deterministic mathematical model for BTB transmission in cattle and humans to provide a general understanding of BTB, in particular regarding transmission to humans. Differential equations were used to model the different pathways between the compartments for cattle and humans. Scenarios of test and slaughter were simulated to determine the effects of varying the proportion of tested animals (p) on the time to elimination of BTB (individual animal prevalence of less than one in a thousand) in cattle and humans. The time to freedom from disease ranged from 75 years for p = 20% to 12 years for p = 100%. For p > 60% the time to elimination was less than 20 years. The cumulated cost was largely stable: for p values higher than 40%, cost ranged from 1.47 to 1.60 billion euros with a time frame of 12 to 32 years to reach freedom from disease. The model simulations also suggest that using a 2mm cut off instead of a 4mm cut off in the Single Intradermal Comparative Cervical Tuberculin skin test (SICCT) would result in cheaper and quicker elimination programs. This analysis informs Moroccan bovine tuberculosis control policy regarding time frame, range of cost and levels of intervention. However, further research is needed to clarify the national human-bovine tuberculosis ratio in Morocco.

Dataset Information

Early animal farming and zoonotic disease dynamics: modelling brucellosis transmission in Neolithic goat populations.

Publications

Early animal farming and zoonotic disease dynamics: modelling brucellosis transmission in Neolithic goat populations.

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