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Can spatial patterns along climatic gradients predict ecosystem responses to climate change? Experimenting with reaction-diffusion simulations.

ABSTRACT: Following a predicted decline in water resources in the Mediterranean Basin, we used reaction-diffusion equations to gain a better understanding of expected changes in properties of vegetation patterns that evolve along the rainfall transition between semi-arid and arid rainfall regions. Two types of scenarios were investigated: the first, a discrete scenario, where the potential consequences of climate change are represented by patterns evolving at discrete rainfall levels along a rainfall gradient. This scenario concerns space-for-time substitutions characteristic of the rainfall gradient hypothesis. The second, a continuous scenario, represents explicitly the effect of rainfall decline on patterns which evolved at different rainfall levels along the rainfall gradient prior to the climate change. The eccentricity of patterns that emerge through these two scenarios was found to decrease with decreasing rainfall, while their solidity increased. Due to their inverse modes of change, their ratio was found to be a highly sensitive indicator for pattern response to rainfall decline. An eccentricity ratio versus rainfall (ER:R) line was generalized from the results of the discrete experiment, where ERs above this line represent developed (recovered) patterns and ERs below this line represent degraded patterns. For the rainfall range of 1.2 to 0.8 mm/day, the continuous rainfall decline experiment with ERs that lie above the ER:R line, yielded patterns less affected by rainfall decline than would be expected according to the discrete representation of ecosystems' response. Thus, for this range, space-for-time substitution represents an overestimation of the consequences of the expected rainfall decline. For rainfall levels below 0.8 mm/day, eccentricity ratios from the discrete and continuous experiments practically converge to the same trend of pattern change along the ER:R line. Thus, the rainfall gradient hypothesis may be valid for regions characterized by this important rainfall range, which typically include desert fringe ecosystems.

SUBMITTER: Roitberg E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5386256 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Can spatial patterns along climatic gradients predict ecosystem responses to climate change? Experimenting with reaction-diffusion simulations.

Roitberg Elena E Shoshany Maxim M

PloS one 20170410 4

Following a predicted decline in water resources in the Mediterranean Basin, we used reaction-diffusion equations to gain a better understanding of expected changes in properties of vegetation patterns that evolve along the rainfall transition between semi-arid and arid rainfall regions. Two types of scenarios were investigated: the first, a discrete scenario, where the potential consequences of climate change are represented by patterns evolving at discrete rainfall levels along a rainfall grad ...[more]

PMID: 28394914

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Project description:Background and aimsThe effects of habitat fragmentation on quantitative genetic variation in plant populations are still poorly known. Saxifraga sponhemica is a rare endemic of Central Europe with a disjunct distribution, and a stable and specialized habitat of treeless screes and cliffs. This study therefore used S. sponhemica as a model species to compare quantitative and molecular variation in order to explore (1) the relative importance of drift and selection in shaping the distribution of quantitative genetic variation along climatic gradients; (2) the relationship between plant fitness, quantitative genetic variation, molecular genetic variation and population size; and (3) the relationship between the differentiation of a trait among populations and its evolvability.MethodsGenetic variation within and among 22 populations from the whole distribution area of S. sponhemica was studied using RAPD (random amplified polymorphic DNA) markers, and climatic variables were obtained for each site. Seeds were collected from each population and germinated, and seedlings were transplanted into a common garden for determination of variation in plant traits.Key resultsIn contrast to previous results from rare plant species, strong evidence was found for divergent selection. Most population trait means of S. sponhemica were significantly related to climate gradients, indicating adaptation. Quantitative genetic differentiation increased with geographical distance, even when neutral molecular divergence was controlled for, and QST exceeded FST for some traits. The evolvability of traits was negatively correlated with the degree of differentiation among populations (QST), i.e. traits under strong selection showed little genetic variation within populations. The evolutionary potential of a population was not related to its size, the performance of the population or its neutral genetic diversity. However, performance in the common garden was lower for plants from populations with reduced molecular genetic variation, suggesting inbreeding depression due to genetic erosion.ConclusionsThe findings suggest that studies of molecular and quantitative genetic variation may provide complementary insights important for the conservation of rare species. The strong differentiation of quantitative traits among populations shows that selection can be an important force for structuring variation in evolutionarily important traits even for rare endemic species restricted to very specific habitats.

Project description:Riparian ecosystems along streams naturally harbour a high plant diversity with many increasingly endangered species. In our current heavily modified and fragmented catchments, many of these species are sensitive to dispersal limitation. Better understanding of riparian plant dispersal pathways is required to predict species (re-)colonization potential and improve success rates of stream and riparian zone conservation and restoration. Dispersal by water (hydrochory) is an important mechanism for longitudinal and lateral dispersal of riparian species. Crucially for recruitment potential, it also influences the elevation along the riparian hydrological gradient where seeds become deposited. Due to the complex interplay between abiotic and biotic factors, however, it remains unclear how exactly patterns in seed deposition are formed. We compared hydrochorous and non-hydrochorous seed deposition, and quantified patterns of seed deposition along the bare substrate of newly created stream riparian gradients. Water levels were monitored and seed deposition was measured with seed traps along the full range of riparian hydrological conditions (from permanently flooded to never flooded). Average seed numbers and species richness were significantly higher in flooded than in non-flooded seed traps (5.7 and 1.5 times higher, respectively). Community-weighted trait means indicated that typically water-dispersed seeds were more dominant in flooded than in non-flooded seed traps and gradually decreased in concentration from the channel to the upland. Moreover, highly buoyant seeds accumulated at the average water line, and clear elevational sorting of non-buoyant seeds occurred within the floodplain. These results establish a critical role of flooding in shaping patterns of seed deposition along the riparian gradient, delivering many seeds of typical riparian species to riparian zones and depositing them at species-specific elevations as influenced by seed traits, suggesting species-specific dispersal pathways. This shows that hydrochory likely has important consequences for riparian vegetation development and that flooding forms a key process for successful restoration.

Dataset Information

Can spatial patterns along climatic gradients predict ecosystem responses to climate change? Experimenting with reaction-diffusion simulations.

Publications

Can spatial patterns along climatic gradients predict ecosystem responses to climate change? Experimenting with reaction-diffusion simulations.

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