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Probabilistic models of species discovery and biodiversity comparisons.

ABSTRACT: Inferring large-scale processes that drive biodiversity hinges on understanding the phylogenetic and spatial pattern of species richness. However, clades and geographic regions are accumulating newly described species at an uneven rate, potentially affecting the stability of currently observed diversity patterns. Here, we present a probabilistic model of species discovery to assess the uncertainty in diversity levels among clades and regions. We use a Bayesian time series regression to estimate the long-term trend in the rate of species description for marine bivalves and find a distinct spatial bias in the accumulation of new species. Despite these biases, probabilistic estimates of future species richness show considerable stability in the currently observed rank order of regional diversity. However, absolute differences in richness are still likely to change, potentially modifying the correlation between species numbers and geographic, environmental, and biological factors thought to promote biodiversity. Applied to scallops and related clades, we find that accumulating knowledge of deep-sea species will likely shift the relative richness of these three families, emphasizing the need to consider the incomplete nature of bivalve taxonomy in quantitative studies of its diversity. Along with estimating expected changes to observed patterns of diversity, the model described in this paper pinpoints geographic areas and clades most urgently requiring additional systematic study-an important practice for building more complete and accurate models of biodiversity dynamics that can inform ecological and evolutionary theory and improve conservation practice.

SUBMITTER: Edie SM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5389289 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Probabilistic models of species discovery and biodiversity comparisons.

Edie Stewart M SM Smits Peter D PD Jablonski David D

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20170321 14

Inferring large-scale processes that drive biodiversity hinges on understanding the phylogenetic and spatial pattern of species richness. However, clades and geographic regions are accumulating newly described species at an uneven rate, potentially affecting the stability of currently observed diversity patterns. Here, we present a probabilistic model of species discovery to assess the uncertainty in diversity levels among clades and regions. We use a Bayesian time series regression to estimate ...[more]

PMID: 28325881

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Project description:BackgroundThe CRISPR/Cas system is known to act as an adaptive and heritable immune system in Eubacteria and Archaea. Immunity is encoded in an array of spacer sequences. Each spacer can provide specific immunity to invasive elements that carry the same or a similar sequence. Even in closely related strains, spacer content is very dynamic and evolves quickly. Standard models of nucleotide evolution cannot be applied to quantify its rate of change since processes other than single nucleotide changes determine its evolution.MethodsWe present probabilistic models that are specific for spacer content evolution. They account for the different processes of insertion and deletion. Insertions can be constrained to occur on one end only or are allowed to occur throughout the array. One deletion event can affect one spacer or a whole fragment of adjacent spacers. Parameters of the underlying models are estimated for a pair of arrays by maximum likelihood using explicit ancestor enumeration.ResultsSimulations show that parameters are well estimated on average under the models presented here. There is a bias in the rate estimation when including fragment deletions. The models also estimate times between pairs of strains. But with increasing time, spacer overlap goes to zero, and thus there is an upper bound on the distance that can be estimated. Spacer content similarities are displayed in a distance based phylogeny using the estimated times.We use the presented models to analyze different Yersinia pestis data sets and find that the results among them are largely congruent. The models also capture the variation in diversity of spacers among the data sets. A comparison of spacer-based phylogenies and Cas gene phylogenies shows that they resolve very different time scales for this data set.ConclusionsThe simulations and data analyses show that the presented models are useful for quantifying spacer content evolution and for displaying spacer content similarities of closely related strains in a phylogeny. This allows for comparisons of different CRISPR arrays or for comparisons between CRISPR arrays and nucleotide substitution rates.

Dataset Information

Probabilistic models of species discovery and biodiversity comparisons.

Publications

Probabilistic models of species discovery and biodiversity comparisons.

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