Dataset Information

Predicting functional decline and survival in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Better predictors of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis disease course could enable smaller and more targeted clinical trials. Partially to address this aim, the Prize for Life foundation collected de-identified records from amyotrophic lateral sclerosis sufferers who participated in clinical trials of investigational drugs and made them available to researchers in the PRO-ACT database.

Methods

In this study, time series data from PRO-ACT subjects were fitted to exponential models. Binary classes for decline in the total score of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis functional rating scale revised (ALSFRS-R) (fast/slow progression) and survival (high/low death risk) were derived. Data was segregated into training and test sets via cross validation. Learning algorithms were applied to the demographic, clinical and laboratory parameters in the training set to predict ALSFRS-R decline and the derived fast/slow progression and high/low death risk categories. The performance of predictive models was assessed by cross-validation in the test set using Receiver Operator Curves and root mean squared errors.

Results

A model created using a boosting algorithm containing the decline in four parameters (weight, alkaline phosphatase, albumin and creatine kinase) post baseline, was able to predict functional decline class (fast or slow) with fair accuracy (AUC = 0.82). However similar approaches to build a predictive model for decline class by baseline subject characteristics were not successful. In contrast, baseline values of total bilirubin, gamma glutamyltransferase, urine specific gravity and ALSFRS-R item score-climbing stairs were sufficient to predict survival class.

Conclusions

Using combinations of small numbers of variables it was possible to predict classes of functional decline and survival across the 1-2 year timeframe available in PRO-ACT. These findings may have utility for design of future ALS clinical trials.

SUBMITTER: Ong ML

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5390993 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Recent electroencephalography (EEG) studies have shown that patterns of brain activity can be used to differentiate amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and control groups. These differences can be interrogated by examining EEG microstates, which are distinct, reoccurring topographies of the scalp's electrical potentials. Quantifying the temporal properties of the four canonical microstates can elucidate how the dynamics of functional brain networks are altered in neurological conditions. Here we have analysed the properties of microstates to detect and quantify signal-based abnormality in ALS. High-density resting-state EEG data from 129 people with ALS and 78 HC were recorded longitudinally over a 24-month period. EEG topographies were extracted at instances of peak global field power to identify four microstate classes (labelled A-D) using K-means clustering. Each EEG topography was retrospectively associated with a microstate class based on global map dissimilarity. Changes in microstate properties over the course of the disease were assessed in people with ALS and compared with changes in clinical scores. The topographies of microstate classes remained consistent across participants and conditions. Differences were observed in coverage, occurrence, duration, and transition probabilities between ALS and control groups. The duration of microstate class B and coverage of microstate class C correlated with lower limb functional decline. The transition probabilities A to D, C to B and C to B also correlated with cognitive decline (total ECAS) in those with cognitive and behavioural impairments. Microstate characteristics also significantly changed over the course of the disease. Examining the temporal dependencies in the sequences of microstates revealed that the symmetry and stationarity of transition matrices were increased in people with late-stage ALS. These alterations in the properties of EEG microstates in ALS may reflect abnormalities within the sensory network and higher-order networks. Microstate properties could also prospectively predict symptom progression in those with cognitive impairments.