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A blood RNA signature for tuberculosis disease risk: a prospective cohort study.

ABSTRACT: Identification of blood biomarkers that prospectively predict progression of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection to tuberculosis disease might lead to interventions that combat the tuberculosis epidemic. We aimed to assess whether global gene expression measured in whole blood of healthy people allowed identification of prospective signatures of risk of active tuberculosis disease.In this prospective cohort study, we followed up healthy, South African adolescents aged 12-18 years from the adolescent cohort study (ACS) who were infected with M tuberculosis for 2 years. We collected blood samples from study participants every 6 months and monitored the adolescents for progression to tuberculosis disease. A prospective signature of risk was derived from whole blood RNA sequencing data by comparing participants who developed active tuberculosis disease (progressors) with those who remained healthy (matched controls). After adaptation to multiplex quantitative real-time PCR (qRT-PCR), the signature was used to predict tuberculosis disease in untouched adolescent samples and in samples from independent cohorts of South African and Gambian adult progressors and controls. Participants of the independent cohorts were household contacts of adults with active pulmonary tuberculosis disease.Between July 6, 2005, and April 23, 2007, we enrolled 6363 participants from the ACS study and 4466 from independent South African and Gambian cohorts. 46 progressors and 107 matched controls were identified in the ACS cohort. A 16 gene signature of risk was identified. The signature predicted tuberculosis progression with a sensitivity of 66·1% (95% CI 63·2-68·9) and a specificity of 80·6% (79·2-82·0) in the 12 months preceding tuberculosis diagnosis. The risk signature was validated in an untouched group of adolescents (p=0·018 for RNA sequencing and p=0·0095 for qRT-PCR) and in the independent South African and Gambian cohorts (p values <0·0001 by qRT-PCR) with a sensitivity of 53·7% (42·6-64·3) and a specificity of 82·8% (76·7-86) in the 12 months preceding tuberculosis.The whole blood tuberculosis risk signature prospectively identified people at risk of developing active tuberculosis, opening the possibility for targeted intervention to prevent the disease.Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institutes of Health, Aeras, the European Union, and the South African Medical Research Council.

SUBMITTER: Zak DE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5392204 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A blood RNA signature for tuberculosis disease risk: a prospective cohort study.

Zak Daniel E DE Penn-Nicholson Adam A Scriba Thomas J TJ Thompson Ethan E Suliman Sara S Amon Lynn M LM Mahomed Hassan H Erasmus Mzwandile M Whatney Wendy W Hussey Gregory D GD Abrahams Deborah D Kafaar Fazlin F Hawkridge Tony T Verver Suzanne S Hughes E Jane EJ Ota Martin M Sutherland Jayne J Howe Rawleigh R Dockrell Hazel M HM Boom W Henry WH Thiel Bonnie B Ottenhoff Tom H M THM Mayanja-Kizza Harriet H Crampin Amelia C AC Downing Katrina K Hatherill Mark M Valvo Joe J Shankar Smitha S Parida Shreemanta K SK Kaufmann Stefan H E SHE Walzl Gerhard G Aderem Alan A Hanekom Willem A WA

Lancet (London, England) 20160324 10035

<h4>Background</h4>Identification of blood biomarkers that prospectively predict progression of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection to tuberculosis disease might lead to interventions that combat the tuberculosis epidemic. We aimed to assess whether global gene expression measured in whole blood of healthy people allowed identification of prospective signatures of risk of active tuberculosis disease.<h4>Methods</h4>In this prospective cohort study, we followed up healthy, South African adolesce ...[more]

PMID: 27017310

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Project description:Identification of blood biomarkers that prospectively predict progression of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection to tuberculosis disease might lead to interventions that combat the tuberculosis epidemic. We aimed to assess whether global gene expression measured in whole blood of healthy people allowed identification of prospective signatures of risk of active tuberculosis disease. RESULTS:Between July 6, 2005, and April 23, 2007, we enrolled 6363 from the ACS study and 4466 from independent South African and Gambian cohorts. 46 progressors and 107 matched controls were identified in the ACS cohort. A 16 gene signature of risk was identified. The signature predicted tuberculosis progression with a sensitivity of 66Â·1% (95% CI 63Â·2â68Â·9) and a specificity of 80Â·6% (79Â·2â82Â·0) in the 12 months preceding tuberculosis diagnosis. The risk signature was validated in an untouched group of adolescents (p=0Â·018 for RNA sequencing and p=0Â·0095 for qRT-PCR) and in the independent South African and Gambian cohorts (p values <0Â·0001 by qRT-PCR) with a sensitivity of 53Â·7% (42Â·6â64Â·3) and a specificity of 82Â·8% (76Â·7â86) in 12 months preceding tuberculosis. Interpretation: The whole blood tuberculosis risk signature prospectively identified people at risk of developing active tuberculosis, opening the possibility for targeted intervention to prevent the disease. In this prospective cohort study, we followed up healthy, South African adolescents aged 12â18 years from the adolescent cohort study (ACS) who were infected with M tuberculosis for 2 years. We collected blood samples from study participants every 6 months and monitored the adolescents for progression to tuberculosis disease. A prospective signature of risk was derived from whole blood RNA sequencing data by comparing participants who developed active tuberculosis disease (progressors) with those who remained healthy (matched controls). After adaptation to multiplex qRT-PCR, the signature was used to predict tuberculosis disease in untouched adolescent samples and in samples from independent cohorts of South African and Gambian adult progressors and controls. Participants of the independent cohorts were household contacts of adults with active pulmonary tuberculosis disease.

Project description:BackgroundA nonsputum blood test capable of predicting progression of healthy individuals to active tuberculosis (TB) before clinical symptoms manifest would allow targeted treatment to curb transmission. We aimed to develop a proteomic biomarker of risk of TB progression for ultimate translation into a point-of-care diagnostic.Methods and findingsProteomic TB risk signatures were discovered in a longitudinal cohort of 6,363 Mycobacterium tuberculosis-infected, HIV-negative South African adolescents aged 12-18 years (68% female) who participated in the Adolescent Cohort Study (ACS) between July 6, 2005 and April 23, 2007, through either active (every 6 months) or passive follow-up over 2 years. Forty-six individuals developed microbiologically confirmed TB disease within 2 years of follow-up and were selected as progressors; 106 nonprogressors, who remained healthy, were matched to progressors. Over 3,000 human proteins were quantified in plasma with a highly multiplexed proteomic assay (SOMAscan). Three hundred sixty-one proteins of differential abundance between progressors and nonprogressors were identified. A 5-protein signature, TB Risk Model 5 (TRM5), was discovered in the ACS training set and verified by blind prediction in the ACS test set. Poor performance on samples 13-24 months before TB diagnosis motivated discovery of a second 3-protein signature, 3-protein pair-ratio (3PR) developed using an orthogonal strategy on the full ACS subcohort. Prognostic performance of both signatures was validated in an independent cohort of 1,948 HIV-negative household TB contacts from The Gambia (aged 15-60 years, 66% female), longitudinally followed up for 2 years between March 5, 2007 and October 21, 2010, sampled at baseline, month 6, and month 18. Amongst these contacts, 34 individuals progressed to microbiologically confirmed TB disease and were included as progressors, and 115 nonprogressors were included as controls. Prognostic performance of the TRM5 signature in the ACS training set was excellent within 6 months of TB diagnosis (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] 0.96 [95% confidence interval, 0.93-0.99]) and 6-12 months (AUC 0.76 [0.65-0.87]) before TB diagnosis. TRM5 validated with an AUC of 0.66 (0.56-0.75) within 1 year of TB diagnosis in the Gambian validation cohort. The 3PR signature yielded an AUC of 0.89 (0.84-0.95) within 6 months of TB diagnosis and 0.72 (0.64-0.81) 7-12 months before TB diagnosis in the entire South African discovery cohort and validated with an AUC of 0.65 (0.55-0.75) within 1 year of TB diagnosis in the Gambian validation cohort. Signature validation may have been limited by a systematic shift in signal magnitudes generated by differences between the validation assay when compared to the discovery assay. Further validation, especially in cohorts from non-African countries, is necessary to determine how generalizable signature performance is.ConclusionsBoth proteomic TB risk signatures predicted progression to incident TB within a year of diagnosis. To our knowledge, these are the first validated prognostic proteomic signatures. Neither meet the minimum criteria as defined in the WHO Target Product Profile for a progression test. More work is required to develop such a test for practical identification of individuals for investigation of incipient, subclinical, or active TB disease for appropriate treatment and care.

Dataset Information

A blood RNA signature for tuberculosis disease risk: a prospective cohort study.

Publications

A blood RNA signature for tuberculosis disease risk: a prospective cohort study.

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